New chains, old problems
What Monad’s launch, MegaETH pre-market pricing, and the Berachain refund story say about today’s infra market
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As the holiday week wraps up, the spotlight has shifted to fundamental valuation concerns. Monad’s mainnet launch, L1/L2 valuation debates, and new details around Berachain’s refund terms are driving most of the conversation. We also cover this week’s top reads and the key takeaways from Monday’s 0xResearch livestream to keep you plugged in.
Weekend Reading
Crypto Is Priced for Network Effects It Does Not Have
Santiago argues that crypto already trades as if it has Facebook-level network effects, with non-BTC crypto at a roughly $1 trillion market cap. This implies about $2,500 per broad user, $9,000 per active user and $23,000 per monthly onchain user, despite much weaker monetization and retention. He shows L1s are around 90% of market cap but their fee share has fallen from roughly 60% to 12% as DeFi and other apps capture most fees on a small share of value. That shift suggests real network effects sit in forkable aggregation layers rather than bases, and that while Ethereum and Solana are building stronger flywheels, the asset class is already priced for an internet scale settlement role it has not yet earned.
To See Tether’s Future, Look at Its Investments
Four Pillars reviewed several Tether investments to argue that USDT’s relentless growth and $135 billion Treasury portfolio shows Tether is building a digital financial empire. In capitalizing on MiCA friendly issuers in Europe, on- and off-ramps and wallets in several countries, and bets on BTC backed lending, bitcoin mining and gold royalties, Tether is stitching together global rails for USDT that serve both retail users and institutions. The piece concludes that instead of being weakened by regulation, Tether is becoming a too-big-to-fail onchain extension of the dollar system, with bitcoin and gold as strategic reserves.
Zcash’s breakout and the revival of onchain privacy
Coin Metrics’ State of the Network argues that ZEC’s nearly 10x rally since October is a repricing of onchain privacy. Shielded supply has climbed to 4.9 million ZEC, or about 30% of circulating supply — up from 11% at the start of 2025. It highlights how the Orchard shielded pool, unified address wallets like Zashi and crosschain rails (such as NEAR Intents) have lowered friction for partially shielded flows, even as fully shielded transfers remain a small share of activity. The report also frames Zcash as a bitcoin-like, 21 million cap asset whose improving UX, faster proofs and growing anonymity set are finally being recognized by the market.
Pine Analytics walks through Solana’s SIMD-0411 proposal, which doubles the disinflation rate from 15% to 30% so that inflation reaches the 1.5% terminal level in about three years instead of six. The proposal roughly cuts 22 million SOL of emissions, or about $3 billion at current prices. The piece contrasts this minimal parameter tweak with the more complex SIMD-0228 idea, arguing that a deterministic schedule is easier to model, govern and explain. It notes that slightly lower staking yields and pressure on weaker validators are worth the trade for less dilution, better capital efficiency and a stronger long-term monetary profile for SOL.
Monad Mainnet, L1 Valuations, and Berachain News
Takeaways from Monday’s 0xResearch livestream:
- Monad mainnet launch: The hosts highlight a few early apps, but TVL is tiny, with day one typically representing a gap between huge expectations and limited initial utility until incentives and more products arrive.
- ICO pricing and perps: The panelists discuss Monad’s Coinbase sale priced around a $2.5 billion FDV, while MegaETH still trades near $3.5 billion pre-TGE and is expected to reprice once spot liquidity appears.
- Throughput vs. value: The discussion highlights new L1s like Monad and MegaETH promising higher TPS, yet the hosts argue raw speed alone no longer justifies multi-billion valuations without clear economic activity and value capture.
- Who captures fees: The group notes Solana has seen more ZEC spot volumes than Hyperliquid, but Hyperliquid likely earns more per unit of trading activity because it owns the orderbook, which shows why chains need canonical revenue apps.
- Neutral infra or app owner: The group prefers models where chains also ship their own DEX, lending and stablecoin rails, pointing to Berachain’s stack as directionally right and questioning why many L1s let external apps take most of the economics.
- Berachain refund scoop: Reports that Brevan Howard’s Nova fund had a post-TGE refund on a $25 million allocation is being called highly unusual, raising MFN questions for other investors and highlighting how some funds face limited downside.
- L1 tokens and launch design: James Christoph argues most new L1 tokens still trade on narratives and flows, that very few will reach Ethereum or Solana style valuations, and that future launches need lower FDV, broader public float and earlier onchain price discovery if they want anything other than down-only charts.
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