Ben Strack

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">subscribe</a>.



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As more investors seem to be seeking exposure to the crypto asset class (particularly after <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/crypto-impacts-since-election-outcome">Trump’s election win</a>), stocks are one way to get involved.&nbsp;



Let’s check in on that ecosystem.&nbsp;



Starting with MicroStrategy, Benchmark’s Mark Palmer on Nov. 18 raised his price target for MSTR shares from $300 to $450. He’s revising that again, according to a Monday note — this time to $650.



This comes after MicroStrategy last week completed a $3 billion offering of convertible senior notes. It then revealed in a Monday filing that it bought <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/btc-100k-microstrategy-buy">55,500 BTC</a> from Nov. 18 to Nov. 24 for $5.4 billion in cash (averaging $97,862 each).&nbsp;



MSTR shares hovered around $402 at 2 pm ET Monday — down 4.7% on the day but up 70% from a month ago.



The strength of the MSTR rally has some <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/article/4739669-microstrategy-paying-245000-per-bitcoin-makes-no-sense-mstr-stock">questioning</a> the idea that these shares should trade at a nearly 3x premium to the market value of the company’s BTC pile.&nbsp;



But MicroStrategy, via treasury operations, has generated ~79,130 bitcoins YTD, translating into a 41.8% BTC yield (the % change of the ratio between MSTR’s bitcoin holdings and its fully diluted share count), Palmer explained. That BTC is currently worth roughly $7.5 billion.



“We regard the dollar values of the bitcoins that MSTR creates, calculated by using its BTC yield, as analogous to earnings, and we believe they can be projected and contextualized through the attachment of a valuation multiple,” he said.



On to Coinbase, Oppenheimer analysts on Monday raised their COIN price target from $265 to $358. The stock was trading around $311 at 2 pm ET Monday.&nbsp;



They mention that the “chilling effect” created by SEC lawsuits against “widely perceived good actors” in the segment, like Coinbase, “can’t be understated.”



“It had deterred new capital going into this space, and many developers had pivoted to other industries,” they added. “But the industry has a chance to rebuild the reputation, and Coinbase is leading this new chapter.”



In addition to the expectation of a <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/gary-gensler-resigning">yet-to-be-named</a> new SEC chair embracing crypto as a catalyst, Coinbase’s trading volumes have increased substantially since the US election.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;



Average daily volumes have risen to $6.5 billion since Election Day — higher than the $2.4 billion YTD average prior to Nov. 5. Oppenheimer is projecting Q4 spot trading volume to be $350 billion (would be up 89% quarter over quarter and 127% year over year) and for “high trading volume to sustain under <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/revisiting-trumps-crypto-promises-after-his-election-win">Trump&#8217;s crypto policy</a>.”



As for other crypto stocks, Compass Point analyst Joe Flynn increased Galaxy’s price target from $22 (CAD) to $33 (~$24 CAD on Monday afternoon).&nbsp;



Beyond higher crypto prices and trading volumes momentum, GLXY is set to benefit from its expected uplisting to the Nasdaq and its term sheet with a hyperscaler to host high-performance computing (HPC) at its Helios campus — a datacenter Flynn called an “underappreciated asset.”



Flynn, also last week, lowered its rating of bitcoin miner Marathon Digital’s stock to neutral. He noted that “while MARA is an outsized beneficiary of higher BTC prices due to its HODL strategy, we don&#8217;t see much additional upside from the base business itself.”



Then there’s competing miner Core Scientific (CORZ), which notably <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/core-scientific-rejects-coreweave-buyout-bid-after-big-hpc-deal">offers HPC hosting</a> to cloud provider CoreWeave. Flynn wrote earlier this month that CORZ is “well positioned to continue expanding their existing lead in delivering application specific HPC/GPU datacenters with a single tenant focus.”&nbsp;



CORZ is the top holding in the Amplify Transformational Data Sharing ETF (BLOK) — the largest blockchain-focused equity ETF. Other stocks in the top five are COIN, MSTR, Hut 8 Mining and GLXY.



Dan Weiskopf, who co-manages BLOK’s portfolio, said it’s hard to value blockchain-fueled disruption over the next decade as regulations become more crypto-friendly.



He told me: “The real excitement should be around the adoption of tokenization as the application and how blockchain as the technology will <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/investor-appetite-for-tokenized-funds">soon transform</a> industries across the board.”



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Coinbase

Why analysts are upping price targets for MSTR and COIN 

Katherine Ross

Can’t stop, won’t stop.



MicroStrategy announced in a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission that it acquired over 11,900 more bitcoin in a period spanning from late April to Wednesday, June 19.



The bitcoin accrued at an average price of $65,883 per bitcoin, for roughly $780 million. The company now has 226,331 bitcoin, worth nearly $15 billion.&nbsp;



That’s roughly 1% of all bitcoin, and also makes MicroStrategy the largest publicly listed corporate holder of bitcoin.&nbsp;



“​​As of June 20, 2024, MicroStrategy, together with its subsidiaries, held an aggregate of approximately 226,331 bitcoins, which were acquired at an aggregate purchase price of approximately $8.33 billion and an average purchase price of approximately $36,798 per bitcoin, inclusive of fees and expenses,” the company said in a filing with the <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/sec">SEC</a>.



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-treasury-strategies">Bitcoin treasury strategies proliferate in a high-inflation world</a>



The latest buys come after <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/microstrategy">MicroStrategy</a> announced <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/microstrategy-second-convertible-senior-notes-offering">another senior notes convertible offering</a>, which was upsized to $700 million from $500 million. Though, <a href="https://www.microstrategy.com/press/microstrategy-completes-800-million-offering-of-225-convertible-senior-notes-due-2032_06-20-2024">according</a> to a press release, the company managed to raise $800 million.&nbsp;



Like the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/microstrategy-bitcoin-convertible-note-sale">other offerings</a>, MicroStrategy said it planned to use the money to acquire more bitcoin.



Since the beginning of the year, the company has made a few senior convertible notes offerings and, in return, has gone on a bit of a shopping spree when it comes to loading up its bitcoin stash.&nbsp;



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-salesmen-michael-saylor-larry-fink">Who’s the better bitcoin salesman: Larry Fink or Michael Saylor?</a>



MicroStrategy’s stock is up over 345% in the past year, though it’s tumbled roughly 8% in the past week. 



Other publicly traded US firms, including DeFi Technologies and <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/medtech-company-buys-bitcoin-microstrategy">Semler Scientific</a>, have adopted their own bitcoin treasury strategies in the wake of MicroStrategy. Over in Japan, Metaplanet also <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/empire-newsletter-etf-buyers">adopted its own bitcoin treasury strategy</a> and has been buying more bitcoin over the past few months.



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MicroStrategy’s bitcoin holdings are worth nearly $15B

One analyst nearly doubled his price target for MicroStrategy stock on Monday as industry watchers anticipate upward price action in the months after the imminent Bitcoin halving.



Mark Palmer, a senior equity research analyst for The Benchmark Company, said in a Monday research note that he had raised his price target for MicroStrategy (MSTR) to $1,875 per share.&nbsp;



The new mark is nearly double that of his $990 price target set for MSTR on Feb. 27. Bitcoin (<a href="https://blockworks.co/price/btc">BTC</a>) climbed to <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-all-time-high">an all-time high above $69,000</a> about a week later, and would reach new heights after that.



<a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/microstrategy">MicroStrategy</a>’s stock price stood at $1,538 at 12:30 pm ET Monday — up 125% year to date and 8% higher than a month ago.&nbsp;



The $1,875 price target assumes bitcoin’s price rising to $150,000 by the end of 2025, Palmer wrote in the note. It stands above a $1,450 MicroStrategy price target made by TD Cowen analysts on March 20, a target that has not been revised since.&nbsp;&nbsp;



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/cheatsheet-microstrategy-outperformed-nvidia">Cheatsheet: MicroStrategy has now outperformed Nvidia this year</a>



The Bitcoin <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/bitcoin-halving">halving</a> — when per-block rewards to bitcoin miners will drop from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC — is scheduled to occur in less than two weeks. While the upcoming Bitcoin halving, like previous ones, is set to create a “supply shock,” the impact of this halving could be magnified given the demand for spot bitcoin ETFs, Palmer added.



The 11 US spot bitcoin ETFs held roughly 827,000 BTC as of April 3, according to BitMEX Research data. The fund category has notched net inflows of more than $12 billion since such offerings launched on Jan. 11.



“We expect the inflows into spot bitcoin ETFs to grow dramatically <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/etfs-helped-legitimize-bitcoin-halving-cme">once institutions begin to invest</a> in them in earnest,” Palmer wrote.



Industry watchers have pointed to the historical <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/history-of-bitcoin-halvings-2">upward trend of BTC after Bitcoin halvings</a>. 



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/btc-price-action-all-time-high">BTC price dips after all-time high. Where is it headed next?</a>



Analysts at crypto exchange Bitfinex said in a Monday report that they — similar to Palmer — expect bitcoin to see a 160% post-halving price surge to above $150,000 in the next 14 months.&nbsp;



The Bitfinex analysts noted, however, that bitcoin achieving an all-time high ahead of this halving is an anomaly that “introduces a level of uncertainty into the market dynamics.”&nbsp;



“If the price of bitcoin rises after the halving, we would expect MicroStrategy to remain correlated with that price action,” said Dan Weiskopf, co-portfolio manager of the Amplify Transformational Data Sharing ETF (BLOK).



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">A growing bitcoin stack</h2>



MicroStrategy has increased its bitcoin holdings for 15 consecutive quarters, Palmer noted. He expects the company to continue collecting BTC using proceeds from capital markets transactions and excess cash generated by its enterprise software business.



The company held 214,246 BTC as of March 19. It most recently bought more than 9,000 BTC last month after proposing an offering of <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/microstrategy-second-convertible-senior-notes-offering">$500 million in convertible senior notes</a> due in 2031.



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-salesmen-michael-saylor-larry-fink">Who’s the better bitcoin salesman: Larry Fink or Michael Saylor?</a>



Palmer said he estimates that MicroStrategy will hold 298,246 bitcoin by the end of 2025. This would represent a nearly 40% increase from its current bitcoin stack.



Lance Vitanza, managing director of equity research at TD Cowen, told Blockworks last year that he expects <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/microstrategy-bitcoin-buying#">MicroStrategy to continue buying BTC</a> when market conditions are attractive — based on BTC price and the price at which MicroStrategy can issue debt or equity securities.



Vitanza said in a March 20 research note that, given a $1.25 billion valuation of MicroStrategy’s operating software business, the market was imputing a 90% premium to the value of the company’s bitcoin holdings.&nbsp;



“Ultimately, we expect that any future contraction in the company&#8217;s bitcoin premium will over time be more than offset by a corresponding increase in the underlying price of bitcoin, as the seasoning of new ETPs continues to drive incremental bitcoin demand at the same time incremental supply of bitcoin falls by 50% due the halving of the bitcoin block reward expected this coming April,” Vitanza wrote at the time.



The premium valuation that the stock trades at presents an advantage for the company to continue to buy bitcoin on accretive basis, Weiskopf told Blockworks.&nbsp;



“After the quarter is reported, we would expect further convertible bond issuance since borrowing at less than 1% and selling stock through a convertible [note] with an additional premium over enterprise value is even more accretive than simply selling stock through an [at-the-market offering],” he added.



The stock trading at a premium to its net asset value is supported by several factors, Palmer argued.&nbsp;



“The most impactful of these is MSTR’s demonstrated ability to tap the capital markets at very attractive interest rates — the two convertible debt offerings the company executed during March had coupons of 0.625% and 0.875% — and then use the proceeds to purchase more bitcoin,” he said.



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bitcoin halving

What analysts say the Bitcoin halving is set to do for MicroStrategy stock

Sam Martin

<div id="highlights-block_617725d07bf3f" class="highlights">
 <ul>
 <li>BTC retraced despite positive remarks from a congressional hearing on digital assets</li>
 <li>BTC dominance hovered above a critical line of support at 40%</li>
 </ul>
 
</div>



Bitcoin&#8217;s dominance is hovering above 40%, a critical area of support.



The House Financial Services Committee heard from several CEOs of large crypto firms in the US this week in an effort to educate policy makers on the current state of the digital asset industry.



Billionaire Ken Griffin, the man who outbid the ConstitutionDAO during Sotheby&#8217;s auction of a copy of the US Constitution, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-09/ken-griffin-s-son-told-him-you-have-to-buy-the-constitution" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">reportedly</a> approached the DAO to share management of the artifact prior to the auction.



NFTs were in the limelight today thanks to news from Pepsi and the Grammys.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Latest in Macro:</h3>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>S&amp;P 500: 4,667, -0.72%</li><li>NASDAQ: 15,517, -1.71%</li><li>Gold: $1,777, -0.04%</li><li>WTI Crude Oil: $70.51, -1.73%</li><li>10-Year Treasury: 1.499%, -0.045%</li></ul>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Latest in Crypto:</h3>



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>BTC: $47,511, -5.17%</li><li>ETH: $4,117, -7.02%</li><li>ETH/BTC: 0.0865, -1.62%</li><li>BTC.D: 40.55%, -1.13%</li></ul>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Congressional meeting on digital assets</h3>



The House Financial Services Committee heard from several CEOs of large crypto firms in the US this week in an effort to educate policy makers on the current state of the digital asset industry.



Despite many positive remarks that came out of the hearing, BTC stumbled <a href="https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">below $47,500</a>. 



Some video highlights from the hearing can be found in the following Twitter thread. (The thread contains cherry picked highlights from an anonymous Twitter user with a bias towards cryptocurrencies.)



<figure class="wp-block-embed aligncenter is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">The recent Congressional hearing was one of the most bullish events for crypto in all of 2021. It represented a clear change in momentum, as legislators begin to understand the true magic of the blockchain… In this thread I’ll compile the best highlights from the hearing! 🥐&mdash; croissant (@CroissantEth) <a href="https://twitter.com/CroissantEth/status/1469048148974788616?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 9, 2021</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">BTC dominance hovers near support level</h3>



BTC&#8217;s dominance, the percentage BTC makes up of the total crypto market capitalization, is hovering above 40%. This has been a long-term support level throughout 2021 as evidenced in the photo below. A breakdown of BTC dominance is indicative of other coins outperforming the world&#8217;s largest digital asset.



<div class="wp-block-image"><figure class="aligncenter size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="468" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/FGHirH6X0AsM5wL-1024x468.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-12403" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/FGHirH6X0AsM5wL-1024x468.jpg?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/FGHirH6X0AsM5wL-1024x468.jpg?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/FGHirH6X0AsM5wL-1024x468.jpg?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/FGHirH6X0AsM5wL-1024x468.jpg?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/FGHirH6X0AsM5wL-1024x468.jpg?w=2048 2048w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/FGHirH6X0AsM5wL-1024x468.jpg?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/FGHirH6X0AsM5wL-1024x468.jpg?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/FGHirH6X0AsM5wL-1024x468.jpg?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/FGHirH6X0AsM5wL-1024x468.jpg?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption>Source: @BCBacker</figcaption></figure></div>



Some other bitcoin highlights from the day include:



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Microstrategy <a href="https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0001050446/000119312521352140/d270832d8k.htm" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">filed</a> a form 8-K with the SEC, announcing the company had purchased approximately 1,434 bitcoins for $82.4&nbsp;million in cash, at an average price of roughly $57,477 per bitcoin.</li><li>Illinois Congresswoman Marie Newman <a href="https://twitter.com/StockMKTNewz/status/1468950204313481219?s=20" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">filed</a> for her purchase of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC).</li></ul>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">ConstitutionDAO update</h3>



Billionaire Ken Griffin, the man who outbid the ConstitutionDAO during Sotheby&#8217;s auction for a copy of the US Constitution, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-09/ken-griffin-s-son-told-him-you-have-to-buy-the-constitution" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">reportedly</a> approached the DAO to share management of the artifact prior to the auction. It remains unclear why the DAO&#8217;s core contributors refused to come to a compromise with Griffin to help manage the copy of the constitution.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs)</h3>



There was a lot of action today in the metaverse. Some of the highlights include:



<ul class="wp-block-list"><li>Meta, formerly Facebook, announced that it is launching its <a href="https://www.oculus.com/facebook-horizon/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Horizon Worlds</a> virtual world application to everyone in the US, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/09/facebook-opens-horizon-worlds-vr-metaverse-app-.html?utm_term=Autofeed&amp;utm_medium=Social&amp;utm_content=Main&amp;utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1639072874" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">according to CNBC</a>.</li><li>Bill Gates <a href="https://www.gatesnotes.com/About-Bill-Gates/Year-in-Review-2021" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">said</a>, &#8220;Within the next two or three years, I predict most virtual meetings will move from 2D camera image grids—which I call the Hollywood Squares model, although I know that probably dates me—to the metaverse, a 3D space with digital avatars.&#8221; </li><li>Pepsi <a href="https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/pepsi-announces-first-ever-brand-nft-with-pepsi-mic-drop-collection-301440901.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">announced</a> its first brand-based &#8220;Pepsi Mic Drop&#8221; NFT collection.</li><li>An NFT auction to support <a href="https://freerossdao.com/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">efforts</a> to free Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht raised roughly 2,837 ETH or $11,741,584.86. The art sold for 1,446 ETH or $6.2 million.</li></ul>



Trading data from <a href="https://opensea.io/rankings" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">OpenSea</a> and <a href="https://solanalysis.com" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Solanalysis</a> of some of the top Solana and Ethereum projects can be found below:



<div class="wp-block-image"><figure class="aligncenter size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="335" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-09-at-6.54.39-PM-1024x335.png" alt="" class="wp-image-12408" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-09-at-6.54.39-PM-1024x335.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-09-at-6.54.39-PM-1024x335.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-09-at-6.54.39-PM-1024x335.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-09-at-6.54.39-PM-1024x335.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-09-at-6.54.39-PM-1024x335.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-09-at-6.54.39-PM-1024x335.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-09-at-6.54.39-PM-1024x335.png?w=80 80w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-09-at-6.54.39-PM-1024x335.png?w=1224 1224w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption>Top Ethereum Projects</figcaption></figure></div>



<div class="wp-block-image"><figure class="aligncenter size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="281" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-09-at-6.54.46-PM-1024x281.png" alt="" class="wp-image-12409" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-09-at-6.54.46-PM-1024x281.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-09-at-6.54.46-PM-1024x281.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-09-at-6.54.46-PM-1024x281.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-09-at-6.54.46-PM-1024x281.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-09-at-6.54.46-PM-1024x281.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-09-at-6.54.46-PM-1024x281.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-09-at-6.54.46-PM-1024x281.png?w=80 80w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screen-Shot-2021-12-09-at-6.54.46-PM-1024x281.png?w=1200 1200w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption>Top Solana Projects </figcaption></figure></div>



If you made it this far, thanks for reading! I am looking forward to catching up on tomorrow.



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