Bitcoin on-chain metrics points to further sell-side pressure

Technical analysis paints a picture of the top crypto asset adrift amid changing crypto investors sentiment, but there’s a silver lining

article-image

Artomat/Shutterstock, modified by Blockworks

share

Crypto’s medium-term market bias has been thrown back into doubt following a change in key metrics for the world’s largest digital asset, including on-chain and technical indicators.

Despite gaining more than 55% since the year began, bitcoin (BTC) continues to exhibit signs of buyer exhaustion as investor sentiment and conviction continue to fade.

An initial rally on the back of Grayscale’s small victory against the SEC to have its application for a spot bitcoin ETP reviewed by the regulator helped drive the asset above $28,000 on August 29. To some, the market is not acting as the most reliable indicator for future sentiment.

“Prices are now the same as before the Blackrock news that injected new life into BTC spot ETF chances, K33 said in a research note on Tuesday.

“In the same time span, the Nasdaq 100, often a good indicator of the market’s general risk appetite, is up 2%. The BTC spot ETFs will be huge, and with improved odds of approval, it looks evident that the market is mispricing it,” K33 said.

The outsized move late last month (6.2%) pushed bitcoin’s price back above its 200-day moving average after losing ground on August 17 (-7.1%) following a delay to several other ETF attempts.

As August headed toward its close, bitcoin dipped back below, following a sell-off on August 30 and August 31 and has remained suppressed below that point ever since.

The 200-day MA is considered a reliable indicator of an asset’s long-term trend in financial markets. Prices above the average generally signal bullish sentiment, while prices below point to a bearish mindset.

Also, total transaction volume for bitcoin reached a three-month low on Tuesday, to $811.1 million, pointing to reduced activity on the asset’s network, Glassnode data shows.

That’s coincided with a reduction in mean transaction sizes, also at a three-month low, hinting at fewer large trades, as well as the number of UTXOs now underwater reaching a three-year-high.

“Markets continue to lack impetus with subdued volumes across both spot and derivatives markets,” Matt Long, APAC General Manager of FalconX told Blockworks. “Most volatility and trading opportunities have resulted from news-driven events related to specific alt coins.”

An eye on the long term paints a different picture. With the halving expected sometime in April next year, the amount of market participants willing to wait out the current market slump has only continued to rise.

The number of unique addresses holding more than 10 BTC rose to highs not seen since 2019, or the last four years, to 157,460. At the same time, smaller addresses holding onto 0.1 BTC reached fresh highs on Tuesday above 4.4 million, Glassnode data shows.


Get the news in your inbox. Explore Blockworks newsletters:

Tags

Upcoming Events

Old Billingsgate

Mon - Wed, October 13 - 15, 2025

Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit (DAS) will feature conversations between the builders, allocators, and legislators who will shape the trajectory of the digital asset ecosystem in the US and abroad.

Industry City | Brooklyn, NY

TUES - THURS, JUNE 24 - 26, 2025

Permissionless IV serves as the definitive gathering for crypto’s technical founders, developers, and builders to come together and create the future.If you’re ready to shape the future of crypto, Permissionless IV is where it happens.

Brooklyn, NY

SUN - MON, JUN. 22 - 23, 2025

Blockworks and Cracked Labs are teaming up for the third installment of the Permissionless Hackathon, happening June 22–23, 2025 in Brooklyn, NY. This is a 36-hour IRL builder sprint where developers, designers, and creatives ship real projects solving real problems across […]

recent research

Axiom report graphic.png

Research

Axiom has rapidly become the leading Solana trading bot, capturing over 50% of Solana bot volume and hovering at 3-4% of total Solana memecoin volume just three months post-launch, driven by high user activity and larger average trade sizes.

article-image

A number of blockchains make use of the Solana Virtual Machine

article-image

Bloomberg Intelligence analysts pegged the odds of the SEC approving US litecoin and solana ETFs in 2025 at 90%

article-image

Digital Assets Subcommittee Chair Bryan Steil called for a “roundtable” discussion in lieu of a formal hearing

article-image

The exchange sees a way to reach gamers through the deal

article-image

The drop gives buyers Adidas outfits for their in-game characters, but the game hasn’t fully released yet