Bloomberg Analyst: Bitcoin Headwinds are Good for Gold

A chaotic quarter for crypto means the world’s favorite precious metal has plenty of upside, writes Bloomberg commodity analyst Mike McGlone

article-image

Source: Shutterstock

share

key takeaways

  • In the last three months, bitcoin is down approximately 20% while gold is up nearly 8%
  • Uncertainty in equities favors precious metals

A stock market that continues to tremble in the face of inflation and uncertain market data combined with a bitcoin market in a lengthened period of retrenchment means a bull market for gold is upon us. 

In a Tuesday morning note, commodities analyst Mike McGlone writes that gold is now at a 20% discount from its 2020 record high and while bitcoin is still a “headwind to its upside”, bitcoin’s own issues with resistance makes for the possibility of a price breakout. 

“Regaining its upward trajectory as Bitcoin pulls back to earth, gold is probably in the early recovery days from the steepest discount to its upward-sloping 50-week moving average since the 2018 bottom,” McGlone wrote. “Gold’s enduring uptrend, which resumed with the first Federal Reserve rate hike of the cycle in 2015, is being threatened by bitcoin. Yet having corrected about 20% from its 2020 peak and responding favorably to layers of support, probabilities are tilted toward staying the upward course.”

McGlone plots a $1,700 to $2,000 range for gold in the near future. He believes that gold is likely to revisit $2,000 soon, while something significant is required to sustain it below the 20-month moving average of a $1,700 support level. 

“The bull market in gold is subject to strong bitcoin headwinds, but we believe it’s transition to a more range-bound market comes with a strengthening foundation,” he wrote.

Gold pricing vs bitcoin and US dollar
Source: TradingView

Bitcoin has had a challenging quarter, from its brief love affair and subsequent divorce with a South African carmaker and rocketeer (Elon Musk) to a doubling down of interest in Ethereum by institutional investors, the world’s largest digital asset by market cap has become the second most traded token at many large exchanges like Kraken and Coinbase according to CoinGecko. All of this has pushed its price from a high of nearly $63,000 to a rut of just over $42,000. 

Singapore-based QCP Capital thinks that this isn’t the end of bitcoin’s pricing woes.

In a Monday Telegram broadcast, the fund said that given the number of short options (gamma) in the downside they “are very cautious of a gap towards $35,000, especially if this triggers a widespread deleveraging cycle.”

Tags

Decoding crypto and the markets. Daily, with Byron Gilliam.

Upcoming Events

Old Billingsgate

Mon - Wed, October 13 - 15, 2025

Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit (DAS) will feature conversations between the builders, allocators, and legislators who will shape the trajectory of the digital asset ecosystem in the US and abroad.

Industry City | Brooklyn, NY

TUES - THURS, JUNE 24 - 26, 2025

Permissionless IV serves as the definitive gathering for crypto’s technical founders, developers, and builders to come together and create the future.If you’re ready to shape the future of crypto, Permissionless IV is where it happens.

Brooklyn, NY

SUN - MON, JUN. 22 - 23, 2025

Blockworks and Cracked Labs are teaming up for the third installment of the Permissionless Hackathon, happening June 22–23, 2025 in Brooklyn, NY. This is a 36-hour IRL builder sprint where developers, designers, and creatives ship real projects solving real problems across […]

recent research

Nillion_DeSci_Report_Template.png

Research

Nillion’s Monad Integration is poised to catalyze the next phase of DeSci’s evolution by eliminating key privacy bottlenecks. This synergy allows researchers, institutions, and DAOs to exchange sensitive data and insights securely while managing governance and payments onchain.

article-image

The Republican-sponsored GENIUS Act has passed a key procedural vote in the US Senate. 

article-image

Cash enables law evasion at a small scale and crypto enables it on a large scale

article-image

Vibe coders are shipping faster than you think

article-image

A downgrade from Moody’s had US Treasury yields on the rise, but history says the volatility should be short-lived

article-image

The game offers 1v1 battles, plus optional NFTs and wagering

article-image

Risks in concentrated liquidity design to be addressed, along with LP compensation