FOMC gathers as country and markets digest election results

Fed funds futures markets were pricing in a 99.2% likelihood that the committee announces a 25bps cut tomorrow

share

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, subscribe.


The November FOMC meeting begins today. Committee members are overwhelmingly expected to deliver a 25-basis point interest rate cut. 

This morning’s election results came too late to impact this month’s decision, analysts say. But the potential Republican sweep and resulting market moves leave December’s outcome less certain. 

Fed funds futures markets were pricing in a 99.2% likelihood that the committee announces a 25bps cut tomorrow, per CME Group data. Odds of an additional 25bps cut in December are now at 67%. 

Donald Trump’s victory could impact the Fed’s leadership and mission. Trump’s planned tax cuts and tariff increases, which he promised on the campaign trail, could, by some economist’s estimates, increase inflation and the federal deficit. 

Plus, Chair Jerome Powell’s term ends in May 2026, giving Trump the opportunity to replace the central bank head. He has already said he will not reappoint Powell, and even mentioned wanting to fire him in 2018. 

Trump will also have the opportunity to nominate a replacement for Fed Governor Adriana Kugler, whose term ends in January 2026. 

Keep your ears open during tomorrow’s press conference, as we expect Powell will face questions about the election and how it impacts future policy. Buckle up; this week is far from over.


Get the news in your inbox. Explore Blockworks newsletters:

Tags

Decoding crypto and the markets. Daily, with Byron Gilliam.

Upcoming Events

Old Billingsgate

Mon - Wed, October 13 - 15, 2025

Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit (DAS) will feature conversations between the builders, allocators, and legislators who will shape the trajectory of the digital asset ecosystem in the US and abroad.

recent research

Research Report Templates (1).png

Research

Aave’s revenues have doubled from April lows and are fast approaching all-time highs. With 35% of borrow interest coming from ETH and 55% from stablecoins, Aave is emerging as a powerful proxy as an ETH and stablecoin beta. As looping strategies accelerate growth and Horizon positions the protocol to ride the RWA wave, Aave is shaping up as one of DeFi’s most compelling multi-narrative plays.

article-image

Bitwise investment strategist expects end to “the wild-west phase of public companies …turning into crypto vehicles”

article-image

The first Solana treasury company is set to make its US debut

article-image

The Solana DAT reportedly plans to raise $1 billion

article-image

YO’s new yoEUR vault lands as incentives try to pull EURC onchain, but fragmented bridges and caps keep markets segmented

article-image

Astana regulator begins trial accepting USD-backed stablecoins for payments through Bybit integration

by Blockworks /
article-image

The Trump-backed DeFi project is believed to have blacklisted Sun’s wallet, triggering market pressure

by Blockworks /