Interest Rates

Investors evaluating tariff risks has contributed to market volatility over recent weeks

A lot has changed in the six months since the Fed decided to cut rates

The first month of the year historically brings bigger price increases

Looking at data points that hint at a labor market that continues to remain in balance

The unemployment rate has “stabilized” and the labor market is “solid,” officials said

Trump revoked his 25% tariff threat after Colombia agreed to terms related to accepting newly deported immigrants

December’s CPI report shows the central bank has made some progress in moving inflation back down to its 2% target

Analysts still caution investors not to take a cool reading as a sign for future rate cuts

Odds of an interest rate cut later this month are all but out the window

One key driver behind talk of a swift end to this cutting cycle is around surprisingly stubborn inflation

Futures markets are now pricing in a 95% chance central bankers hold rates steady at their next meeting later this month

One big learning was how high interest rates were actually making inflation worse, rather than deterring it

Stocks traded sideways and cryptos dipped Thursday

Over one year it felt like we’ve been through five different versions of the Fed

Going into an FOMC meeting, a constellation of factors come together to affect the event’s price outcome

We’re still a few days out from the “Santa rally window,” but a breakout in equities and crypto could be imminent

Reflecting on the two worlds I live in poses an interesting vignette

Analysts are anticipating November’s annual CPI figure to come in at 2.7%, a moderate uptick from October

There’s a lot of confusion as to why the Fed might still be cutting rates despite what looks to be an economy doing pretty well

The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge showed that prices increased 0.2% from September and 2.3% annually

Odds of a second 25bps cut in December are now at 66%, according to CME Group

With respect to today’s FOMC meeting, Powell needs to carefully consider where he wants to attempt guiding yields

Fed funds futures markets were pricing in a 99.2% likelihood that the committee announces a 25bps cut tomorrow

Historically, positive returns have been a bit more of a toss-up during the year’s 11th month