Interest Rates
Just ahead of the FOMC’s decision, Mohamed El-Erian discussed the Fed’s interest rate narrative on the DAS main stage
Indicators like the volatility index and S&P 500 show that we’re not in crisis territory…yet
Cuts to interest rates unlikely as officials weigh labor market data and Trump tariffs take effect
Latest PCE data inched down just slightly in January, but we remain a ways off from the Fed’s 2% target
Investors evaluating tariff risks has contributed to market volatility over recent weeks
Looking at data points that hint at a labor market that continues to remain in balance
The unemployment rate has “stabilized” and the labor market is “solid,” officials said
Trump revoked his 25% tariff threat after Colombia agreed to terms related to accepting newly deported immigrants
December’s CPI report shows the central bank has made some progress in moving inflation back down to its 2% target
Analysts still caution investors not to take a cool reading as a sign for future rate cuts
One key driver behind talk of a swift end to this cutting cycle is around surprisingly stubborn inflation
Futures markets are now pricing in a 95% chance central bankers hold rates steady at their next meeting later this month
One big learning was how high interest rates were actually making inflation worse, rather than deterring it
Going into an FOMC meeting, a constellation of factors come together to affect the event’s price outcome
We’re still a few days out from the “Santa rally window,” but a breakout in equities and crypto could be imminent
Analysts are anticipating November’s annual CPI figure to come in at 2.7%, a moderate uptick from October
There’s a lot of confusion as to why the Fed might still be cutting rates despite what looks to be an economy doing pretty well