Interest Rates

Just ahead of the FOMC’s decision, Mohamed El-Erian discussed the Fed’s interest rate narrative on the DAS main stage

Indicators like the volatility index and S&P 500 show that we’re not in crisis territory…yet

Cuts to interest rates unlikely as officials weigh labor market data and Trump tariffs take effect

Uncertainty around the US economy’s outlook is spurring a risk-off wave

Latest PCE data inched down just slightly in January, but we remain a ways off from the Fed’s 2% target

Investors evaluating tariff risks has contributed to market volatility over recent weeks

A lot has changed in the six months since the Fed decided to cut rates

The first month of the year historically brings bigger price increases

Looking at data points that hint at a labor market that continues to remain in balance

The unemployment rate has “stabilized” and the labor market is “solid,” officials said

Trump revoked his 25% tariff threat after Colombia agreed to terms related to accepting newly deported immigrants

December’s CPI report shows the central bank has made some progress in moving inflation back down to its 2% target

Analysts still caution investors not to take a cool reading as a sign for future rate cuts

Odds of an interest rate cut later this month are all but out the window

One key driver behind talk of a swift end to this cutting cycle is around surprisingly stubborn inflation

Futures markets are now pricing in a 95% chance central bankers hold rates steady at their next meeting later this month

One big learning was how high interest rates were actually making inflation worse, rather than deterring it

Stocks traded sideways and cryptos dipped Thursday

Over one year it felt like we’ve been through five different versions of the Fed

Going into an FOMC meeting, a constellation of factors come together to affect the event’s price outcome

We’re still a few days out from the “Santa rally window,” but a breakout in equities and crypto could be imminent

Reflecting on the two worlds I live in poses an interesting vignette

Analysts are anticipating November’s annual CPI figure to come in at 2.7%, a moderate uptick from October

There’s a lot of confusion as to why the Fed might still be cutting rates despite what looks to be an economy doing pretty well