Fed holds interest rates after trio of cuts
The unemployment rate has “stabilized” and the labor market is “solid,” officials said
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell | Federalreserve/"CP_Canada_Wilson-Center_04162024-5200″ (CC license)
This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, subscribe.
The FOMC today, as expected, held interest rates steady.
The unemployment rate has “stabilized” and the labor market is “solid,” officials said. Inflation, on the other hand, “remains somewhat elevated.”
“The committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance,” the statement read. “The economic outlook is uncertain, and the committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.”
Today’s pause comes after three consecutive interest rate cuts at the end of last year. In the committee’s most recent projection materials, the majority of participants expected to end 2025 in the 3.75%-4% range. The current target range is 4.25%-4.5%.
Whether or not we see two 25-basis point cuts in 2025, though, is anyone’s guess at this point.
President Trump’s policy plans — mainly on tariffs and mass deportations — are expected to have significant impacts on inflation and the labor market, potentially undercutting the central bank’s mandate of reaching maximum employment with stable prices. Trump last week said he knows “interest rates much better” than FOMC members.
Markets are largely expecting the FOMC to continue this pause through March, calling for only a 28% chance of a pause, according to data from CME Group.
Equities were little changed in the moments after the decision. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite remained in the red, trading 0.7% and 1% lower, respectively, as of 2:10 pm ET.
Get the news in your inbox. Explore Blockworks newsletters:
- Blockworks Daily: The newsletter that helps thousands of investors understand crypto and the markets, by Byron Gilliam.
- Empire: Start your day with top crypto insights from David Canellis and Katherine Ross.
- Forward Guidance: Explore the growing intersection between crypto, macroeconomics, policy and finance with Ben Strack, Casey Wagner and Felix Jauvin.
- 0xResearch: Get alpha directly in your inbox — market highlights, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, and more.
- Lightspeed: All things Solana, in your inbox, every day from Jack Kubinec and Jeff Albus.
- The Drop: The newsletter for crypto collectors and traders, covering games, tokens, apps, memes and more.
