Casey Wagner

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Welcome to the Forward Guidance Newsletter, brought to you today exclusively by Casey Wagner. Here’s what you’ll find in today’s edition:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>With the election just over a month away, we break down the latest crypto-focused voter surveys. </li>



<li>The KYC process for Donald Trump’s DeFi project is officially open. What, exactly, is the project? TBD.  </li>



<li>The week of jobs data is not off to the best start. Here’s why.</li>
</ul>



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<h2 class="wp-block-heading">What the numbers have to say about the ‘crypto voter’</h2>



We know it’s election season because political polls are popping up everywhere.&nbsp;



(Well, that and the incessant commercials, but I don’t have cable, so I’ve been mostly spared.)&nbsp;



<a href="https://consensys.io/blog/half-of-all-us-voters-support-pro-crypto-policies">Consensys</a>, <a href="https://assets.ctfassets.net/sygt3q11s4a9/7oELfEbBOMbx3GPgyMswFE/169fee00ffc261bed675586c6b3f50c7/StateofCrypto_Q32024_Report__1_.pdf">Coinbase</a> and <a href="https://www.grayscale.com/globalassets/harris-poll/grayscale-crypto-election-research-report.pdf">Grayscale</a> have all published crypto-focused political surveys in recent days. Each crypto firm partnered with a polling company (HarrisX, Morning Consult and The Harris Poll, respectively), and findings focused on one central theme: The number of voters who own crypto is increasing, and most of this demographic is at least considering a candidate’s crypto policies when casting their vote.&nbsp;



Of course, it’s important to remember the sources here — and keep in mind that data can be presented in a way that shows just about any trend the presenter wants, so I encourage you to unpack the reports yourself and consider the methodology of each.&nbsp;



That being said, here are some of the most notable findings from the surveys:&nbsp;



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Voters currently seem pretty split between Democrats and Republicans. Consensys reported that 35% of respondents most trusted Republicans on crypto policy. Coinbase found that 47% of crypto owners will vote for Kamala Harris and 47% will vote for Donald Trump. Grayscale’s survey says 34% of voters think Republicans are more favorable to the industry, vs. 33% who said the same for Democrats. </li>



<li>Crypto owners generally want to see more regulation, all surveys found. Coinbase’s report states that 72% of crypto owners would “consider greater involvement” in the industry <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/crypto-must-work-closely-with-regulators">if regulations were more clear</a>. 44% of crypto owners think the US government is doing “too little” to support the industry, according to Consensys, and 80% of US voters think regulators have a role in overseeing emergency technology, per Grayscale’s report.</li>



<li>Crypto just may be a swing state issue. Consensys found that 59% of voters in Michigan “prefer a free market approach to crypto” vs. the 44% who think the government should oversee the industry. Coinbase says one in eight crypto owners lives in a swing state (they included seven states here: AZ, GA, MI, NC, NV, PA and WI). </li>



<li>Americans are primarily concerned with economic issues this election year, Grayscale found, with 30% of voters ranking inflation as the “most pressing problem” in the US and 15% ranking the “state of the economy” as their top concern. </li>



<li>And last but not least, Coinbase found that 71% of Gen Z crypto owners think about crypto as much, if not more, than they think about Taylor Swift. The survey interviewed 1,577 crypto owners in the US who are eligible to vote, but did not reveal exactly how many are Gen Z. </li>
</ul>



We are now 35 days away from Nov. 5. While both <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/on-the-margin-newsletter-trump-crypto-promises">Trump</a> and <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/on-the-margin-newsletter-china-stimulus-stagnation">Harris</a> have made comments about digital assets and revealed some of their policy intentions, we have yet to see a formal, comprehensive crypto plan from either candidate.



I’ll keep my eyes peeled, but I am not holding my breath.&nbsp;



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">36&nbsp;</h3>



The number of US ports where longshoremen are on strike. The walkout, which began when the contract between the ports and members of the International Longshoremen&#8217;s Association expired at midnight Monday, marks the first strike since 1977.&nbsp;



The longer it continues, the more pressure the supply chain will face, potentially leading to higher prices for consumers. The Conference Board <a href="https://www.conference-board.org/press/port-workers-strike-could-cost-economy">says</a> a one-week strike could cost the economy $3.78 billion.&nbsp;



With a very tight presidential election just weeks away, the situation may quickly become a campaign talking point.&nbsp;



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">World Liberty Financial is open, as long as you have $1M</h2>



Enrollment for the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/world-liberty-financial-kyc-starts">Donald Trump-backed crypto project is underway</a>, the former president announced Monday.&nbsp;



Details about World Liberty Financial, the DeFi project Trump and his family <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/on-the-margin-newsletter-trump-family-defi-venture">have been teasing for months</a>, have been slow to emerge. But yesterday we learned one more important detail: If you are a US resident looking to buy WLFI, you must be an accredited investor.&nbsp;



Because of “outdated” regulations, the whitelist is only available to accredited investors in the US, the project confirmed in the World Liberty Telegram channel Monday. Specific regulations preventing the team from opening the project to all investors were not disclosed. A second whitelist will be available for “non-US persons.”&nbsp;



The team behind the project includes Trump’s sons, Donald Jr., Eric and Barron. Chase Herro and Zachary Folkman are also involved.&nbsp;



Herro, who describes himself as “the dirtbag of the internet” founded the now-shuttered crypto trading firm Pacer Capital. Folkman and Herro also collaborated on building Dough Finance, the Aave-based DeFi platform that was exploited over the summer for $2 million.&nbsp;



The current KYC process asks users to confirm their country of residence, link their wallet, submit a proof of identification and complete a “liveness check.”&nbsp;



Accredited investors, per SEC <a href="https://www.sec.gov/resources-small-businesses/capital-raising-building-blocks/accredited-investors">guidelines</a>, are those with a minimum net worth of $1 million and individual income of $200,000. Couples can qualify with a combined income of $300,000. So, not exactly your average American.&nbsp;



We’ll be continuing to update you on World Liberty’s launch, so keep an eye on Blockworks.co for the latest.&nbsp;&nbsp;



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Happy jobs data week!&nbsp;</h2>



Well, “happy” may not be the right word. Things kicked off a bit rocky today with latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showing that job openings jumped in August.&nbsp;



There were 8 million positions open at the end of last month, compared with 7.71 million at the end of July, Tuesday’s JOLTS <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm">report</a> shows. Analysts had expected 7.68 million openings.&nbsp;



Openings are, however, down 1.3 million year over year.&nbsp;



Overall, it’s a weak report. Job openings are up, hiring is about the same (5.3 million hires were reported at the end of August), quits are down and layoffs/firings are about the same (1.6 million in August). Translation: It’s hard to find a job.&nbsp;



With labor currently being the Fed’s number one priority, the report unsurprisingly moved expectations of a 50-basis point cut in November up. Odds of a 25bps decrease now sit at 61%, compared to 65% yesterday, according to data from <a href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html">CME Group</a>.&nbsp;



This is one of many reports this week though, so we’ll have to see what the other numbers say before drawing any major conclusions about the health of the labor market. Next up is the ADP employment report on Wednesday, followed by initial jobless claims and the September labor report on Thursday and Friday, respectively.&nbsp;



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Bulletin Board&nbsp;</h2>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Robinhood Crypto today launched crypto transfers in the EU, enabling European customers to deposit and withdraw more than 20 cryptocurrencies, the company <a href="https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2024/10/01/2955809/0/en/Robinhood-Crypto-Launches-Crypto-Transfers-in-Europe.html">announced</a>. It’s also offering a 1% deposit match for a “limited time.” </li>



<li>Crypto hacks increased during the third quarter, with a total of $753 million exploited, according to a new report from cybersecurity team Certik. </li>



<li>Excited for Permissionless III next week? We are too! Escape the conference center for a bit and sign up for the <a href="https://edgein.io/events/pickleball-tournament/">official pickleball tournament</a>. Spots are limited, so act fast. </li>
</ul>



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