The factors set to spur another ‘Uptober’ for BTC
Expectations for another Fed rate cut to spur risk-on sentiment, 21Shares exec says — even if the path is choppy
Artwork by Crystal Le
This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, subscribe.
After bitcoin just logged its third straight September in the green, we’ll see if the asset can pull off positive returns for a seventh consecutive October.
While bitcoin’s month-over-month October strength is usually supported by September weakness, BTC’s 5% rise last month changes the set-up a bit.
Still, the chance of the “Uptober” narrative playing out again appears solid for several reasons, according to 21Shares crypto research strategist Matt Mena.
A Wednesday report by ADP showed that private employers shed 32,000 jobs in September — “a downside surprise” that boosts expectations for another Fed rate cut, Mena said. The probability of a 25bps cut on Oct. 29 stands at 99%, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
“As liquidity expectations rise, BTC tends to outperform — benefiting both as a digital gold hedge in times of fiscal uncertainty and as a high-beta risk asset when liquidity returns,” Mena told me.
Recent market action underscores this resilience, with bitcoin rising from $108,000 to ~$118,000 by mid-day Wednesday — even after $2 billion in leveraged long liquidations last week. The asset is up 26% year to date.
As for other economic data, the latest government shutdown means the Bureau of Labor Statistics may not be able to deliver the jobs report it was set to publish Friday.
“[Expect] near-term choppiness from a data blackout and policy uncertainty, but if the Fed stays on track for an October cut and the dollar softens, the backdrop tilts risk-on — historically supportive for bitcoin,” Mena added.
Beyond just October, the fourth quarter is bitcoin’s strongest. This trend was helped by the lead-up to bitcoin ETF approval in 2023 and Trump’s election victory last November.
Grayscale research head Zach Pandl said he expects BTC, ETH and SOL to make new highs in Q4 so long as the Senate makes progress on market structure legislation and macro conditions hold up.
Ether, which dipped to ~$3,800 last week, climbed above $4,300 today (12% off its all-time high). Though the asset has grown 30% so far in 2025, ETH has not, on average, seen the gains BTC has in October (+4.7% vs. BTC’s +20.4%).
“The biggest risk to both crypto and traditional markets is a hawkish pivot from the Fed,” Pandl told me. “As long as rates are heading lower and the economy holds up reasonably well, asset valuations should remain supported.”
As for where bitcoin lands at the end of 2025, Ledn CIO John Glover last week noted the difference in opinion among technical analysts. While he believes BTC could go up to $145,000 by year-end, another camp thinks the bull market ended when bitcoin nearly reached their $125,000 target.
“I remain steadfast in my view that there are higher prices yet to come, and that any dip down to $100,000 or slightly below is a buying opportunity,” Glover added at the time. “However, one view that we all share is that once this bull cycle is complete…the bear market will begin very soon.”
As conditions fluctuate, investors will soon have more tools to navigate this asset class.
Get the news in your inbox. Explore Blockworks newsletters:
- The Breakdown: Decoding crypto and the markets. Daily.
- 0xResearch: Alpha in your inbox. Think like an analyst.
- Empire: Crypto news and analysis to start your day.
- Forward Guidance: The intersection of crypto, macro and policy.
- The Drop: Apps, games, memes and more.
- Lightspeed: All things Solana.
- Supply Shock: Bitcoin, bitcoin, bitcoin.
