2025’s first inflation print shows New Year’s bump 

The first month of the year historically brings bigger price increases

article-image

simona pilolla 2/Shutterstock modified by Blockworks

share


This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, subscribe.


The first CPI reading of the year came out this morning, showing that inflation picked up for the fourth-straight month in January. The headline figure is up 3% over the year, slightly above what analysts had predicted. 

Month over month, prices across the board are up 0.5%, the biggest month increase since August 2023. The core index, which excludes food and energy prices, is up 0.4% from December. 

The January CPI report is always especially important as it reflects turn-of-the-year price changes. The first month of the year historically brings bigger price increases. 

Shelter costs accounted for almost 30% of the total CPI increase, although some of this increase can be attributed to wildfires in California. Food prices also brought up the headline figure.

The index for food was up 0.4% in January, with meats, poultry, fish and eggs alone gaining 1.9% from December. 

Stocks initially fell on the news but pared losses later in the session. 10-year Treasury yields — a proxy for loans and mortgages — jumped above 4.65%. Odds of a March rate cut went from 5% to 2.5% following the report’s release, according to data from CME Group. 

These inflation figures, while perhaps initially alarming, are not too far off from expectations. Plus, first quarter inflation almost always shows a new year’s bump. Add in the devastating fires in the Los Angeles area and it’s a bit of a perfect storm. We’ll see if the market agrees tomorrow.


Get the news in your inbox. Explore Blockworks newsletters:

Tags

Decoding crypto and the markets. Daily, with Byron Gilliam.

Upcoming Events

Old Billingsgate

Mon - Wed, October 13 - 15, 2025

Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit (DAS) will feature conversations between the builders, allocators, and legislators who will shape the trajectory of the digital asset ecosystem in the US and abroad.

recent research

Research Report Templates.png

Research

Content Delivery Networks (CDNs) represent low-hanging fruit in a massive market ripe for Web3-driven disruption. The global CDN market was valued at ~$28B in 2024, and is projected to surpass $140B by 2034, (18.75% CAGR) underscoring the immense demand for efficient content delivery.

article-image

As Satoshi-era wallets saw over $8 billion worth of BTC on the move, Congress is gearing up for “Crypto Week”

article-image

Bitcoin’s runaway success was partly driven by Slashdot

article-image

Blockworks Research data shows that VC spending is back on the rise after a slow May

article-image

After rejecting a bid from the AI cloud-computing startup last year, Core Scientific agreed to be acquired in a deal expected to close by Q4 2025

article-image

Sponsored

Plume’s collaboration with TRON will unlock cross-chain RWA yield for one of the world’s largest blockchain ecosystems

article-image

Who needs gold when you have taxes?