2025’s first inflation print shows New Year’s bump 

The first month of the year historically brings bigger price increases

article-image

simona pilolla 2/Shutterstock modified by Blockworks

share


This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, subscribe.


The first CPI reading of the year came out this morning, showing that inflation picked up for the fourth-straight month in January. The headline figure is up 3% over the year, slightly above what analysts had predicted. 

Month over month, prices across the board are up 0.5%, the biggest month increase since August 2023. The core index, which excludes food and energy prices, is up 0.4% from December. 

The January CPI report is always especially important as it reflects turn-of-the-year price changes. The first month of the year historically brings bigger price increases. 

Shelter costs accounted for almost 30% of the total CPI increase, although some of this increase can be attributed to wildfires in California. Food prices also brought up the headline figure.

The index for food was up 0.4% in January, with meats, poultry, fish and eggs alone gaining 1.9% from December. 

Stocks initially fell on the news but pared losses later in the session. 10-year Treasury yields — a proxy for loans and mortgages — jumped above 4.65%. Odds of a March rate cut went from 5% to 2.5% following the report’s release, according to data from CME Group. 

These inflation figures, while perhaps initially alarming, are not too far off from expectations. Plus, first quarter inflation almost always shows a new year’s bump. Add in the devastating fires in the Los Angeles area and it’s a bit of a perfect storm. We’ll see if the market agrees tomorrow.


Get the news in your inbox. Explore Blockworks newsletters:

  • Blockworks Daily: The newsletter that helps thousands of investors understand crypto and the markets, by Byron Gilliam.
  • Empire: Start your morning with the top news and analysis to inform your day in crypto.
  • Forward Guidance: Reporting and analysis on the growing intersection of crypto and macroeconomics, policy and finance.
  • 0xResearch: Alpha directly in your inbox. Market highlights, data, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance and more.
  • Lightspeed: Built for Solana investors, developers and community members. The latest from one of crypto’s hottest networks.
  • The Drop: For crypto collectors and traders, covering apps, games, memes and more.
Tags

Upcoming Events

Industry City | Brooklyn, NY

TUES - THURS, JUNE 24 - 26, 2025

Permissionless IV serves as the definitive gathering for crypto’s technical founders, developers, and builders to come together and create the future.If you’re ready to shape the future of crypto, Permissionless IV is where it happens.

Old Billingsgate

Mon - Wed, October 13 - 15, 2025

Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit (DAS) will feature conversations between the builders, allocators, and legislators who will shape the trajectory of the digital asset ecosystem in the US and abroad.

recent research

Research Report Templates (5).png

Research

Outside of stablecoins, the value of tokenized assets sits below $20B, dominated by the following asset classes: private credit, US Treasuries, commodities, institutional alternative funds, stocks, non-US government debt, and corporate bonds. In the coming months, we see the greatest opportunities in the tokenization of illiquid markets, particularly private equity. However, the successful integration of offchain assets into blockchain ecosystems relies heavily on clear and consistent regulatory frameworks, with purpose-built infrastructure to support it.

article-image

“Every asset manager and bank doing ‘crypto’ is earning insane fees for putting things ‘onchain,'” read a slide from Meltem Demiror’s DAS talk

article-image

The move from the national bank regulator came after increased pressure from Republicans

article-image

Industry leaders at DAS sounded off on the SEC’s approval of solana futures ETFs and how the crypto industry could expand into futures products

article-image

The decentralized-storage alternative to AWS or IPFS will launch its mainnet March 27

article-image

Bitcoin ETF outflows are leveling off, Ethereum’s price action is increasingly sentiment-driven, and TradFi’s role in crypto is expanding

article-image

The MicroStrategy founder understood digital scarcity long before Bitcoin, and it’s a story of bubbles, brokers and a “monster bull run.”