Recapping the Fed flip-flop of 2024

Over one year it felt like we’ve been through five different versions of the Fed

article-image

Andy.LIU/Shutterstock modified by Blockworks

share


This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, subscribe.


I sit reflecting on the year and what has transpired, especially in relation to the recent FOMC meeting that surprised hawkish and shocked markets. Over one year it felt like we’ve been through five different versions of the Fed. 

In the winter of 2024, the Fed got spooked by surprisingly elevated inflation prints in the first quarter. This led them to reverse their dovish inclinations they had set up in the fall of 2023. Then, in June, the FOMC surprised the market with a hawkish dot plot that implied hardly any cuts in 2024. 

Then, a concerning jobs report in August flipped the entire narrative on its head. The Fed became concerned about a growth scare and losing the labor market, and once again flipped dovish, climaxing in a September cut of 50bps to kick off the rate-cutting cycle. We’ve now had 100bps of cuts and the Fed has once again flipped hawkish. The outlook for 2025 is uncertain, with a forecast of only two cuts occurring next year. 

If that all sounded like a rollercoaster of confusion, trust your instinct — it was.

Now, with January priced for a pause and no meeting in February, I’m once again expecting another flip-flop as we head into the new year. Additionally, I see the potential for more cuts than what is currently expected in 2025 to be priced in during the first quarter.

So as we head into the new year, I give you my parting thoughts: Expect to continue hearing the noise of flip-flops in the distance. 

Enjoy the holidays and see you in 2025!


Get the news in your inbox. Explore Blockworks newsletters:

Tags

Decoding crypto and the markets. Daily, with Byron Gilliam.

Upcoming Events

Javits Center North | 445 11th Ave

Tues - Thurs, March 24 - 26, 2026

Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit (DAS) will feature conversations between the builders, allocators, and legislators who will shape the trajectory of the digital asset ecosystem in the US and abroad.

Old Billingsgate

Mon - Wed, October 13 - 15, 2025

Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit (DAS) will feature conversations between the builders, allocators, and legislators who will shape the trajectory of the digital asset ecosystem in the US and abroad.

recent research

Unlocked by Template (1).jpg

Research

As AI supercharges surveillance, privacy becomes a prerequisite and the winning stack will combine confidentiality with selective disclosure. Zcash’s Tachyon, composable standards on Ethereum/Solana, and compliance-aware pools aim to make private rails the new norm.

article-image

The derivatives giant will extend futures and options access to round-the-clock trading in early 2026

by Blockworks /
article-image

Global fiber network goes live as SEC clears 2Z token for utility use

by Blockworks /
article-image

The SPAC transaction positions Avalanche Treasury Co. as a Nasdaq-listed vehicle for institutional AVAX exposure by 2026

by Blockworks /
article-image

The collaboration brings regulated money market fund exposure to Polygon, with custody provided by Standard Chartered

by Blockworks /
article-image

FG Nexus teams with Securitize to bring its Nasdaq-listed equity onchain, offering tokenized stock trading through Ethereum

by Blockworks /
article-image

Sponsored

Taiko launches binding onchain governance and appoints three directors with expertise in global regulation, business strategy and blockchain tech

by Sponsored /