Analysts warn we aren’t yet in ‘Fed put’ territory ahead of FOMC meeting

Cuts to interest rates unlikely as officials weigh labor market data and Trump tariffs take effect

article-image

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell | Federalreserve/"_DSC1894." (CC license

share

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, subscribe.


As Blockworks kicks off the Digital Asset Summit in New York, Fed officials will be gathering for their March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in Washington. 

The central bank is overwhelmingly expected to hold interest rates as-is, continuing a pause to its rate-cutting schedule. After next week, the Fed won’t have another rate-setting meeting until May; odds of a cut then are only around 30%, CME data shows. 

Betting on a “Trump put” at this point is, dare I say, wishful thinking. President Trump announced additional tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports, and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the administration is going to proceed with the duties even if it means pushing the economy into a recession

A “Fed put” may not be entirely off the table, but it’s not coming anytime soon. Jerome Powell has made it clear that it will take substantial weakening in the labor market for central bankers to rethink the current pause. 

HSBC analysts said in a note this week that the Fed isn’t budging until the data does. Of course, worse data means increased recessionary fears and lower asset prices. We’re between a rock and a hard place here, they added.  

So it’s all a bit of a waiting game for now. The labor market looks okay, but tariffs could weigh on hiring and further anticipated DOGE layoffs have not yet been reflected in the data. 

Instead of doom-scrolling next week, we recommend coming to DAS, where you can spiral and speculate in real life.


Get the news in your inbox. Explore Blockworks newsletters:

Tags

Decoding crypto and the markets. Daily, with Byron Gilliam.

Upcoming Events

Old Billingsgate

Mon - Wed, October 13 - 15, 2025

Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit (DAS) will feature conversations between the builders, allocators, and legislators who will shape the trajectory of the digital asset ecosystem in the US and abroad.

Industry City | Brooklyn, NY

TUES - THURS, JUNE 24 - 26, 2025

Permissionless IV serves as the definitive gathering for crypto’s technical founders, developers, and builders to come together and create the future.If you’re ready to shape the future of crypto, Permissionless IV is where it happens.

Brooklyn, NY

SUN - MON, JUN. 22 - 23, 2025

Blockworks and Cracked Labs are teaming up for the third installment of the Permissionless Hackathon, happening June 22–23, 2025 in Brooklyn, NY. This is a 36-hour IRL builder sprint where developers, designers, and creatives ship real projects solving real problems across […]

recent research

Nillion_DeSci_Report_Template.png

Research

Nillion’s Monad Integration is poised to catalyze the next phase of DeSci’s evolution by eliminating key privacy bottlenecks. This synergy allows researchers, institutions, and DAOs to exchange sensitive data and insights securely while managing governance and payments onchain.

article-image

Celebrating the wisdom of a diamond-handed Bitcoin Legend

article-image

With the success of RWAs and stablecoins, DePINs could onboard the next wave of crypto users

article-image

Is crypto straying too far from things of value?

article-image

Firedancer and Solana ETFs look less significant than before

article-image

The newly passed House bill amplifies that strategic pivot for the Trump administration, from attempting austerity to running the economy hot

article-image

Unable to secure further funding, the game cycled through three different blockchains and at least five different game engines since 2018