Best of the best: Top 2024 lessons from Forward Guidance

One big learning was how high interest rates were actually making inflation worse, rather than deterring it

article-image

Forward Guidance host Felix Jauvin | Permissionless III by Mike Lawrence for Blockworks

share

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, subscribe.


Before we get into the groove and craziness of 2025, I want to reflect on my favorite interviews and biggest takeaways of 2024.

Warren Mosler is the father and pioneer of the modern monetary theory (MMT) movement, and has very unique views compared to traditional macroeconomic thinking. I had him on the show as I wanted to understand his views of the current economic environment. 

One big learning was how high interest rates were actually making inflation worse, rather than deterring it. When debt levels become as elevated as they are, interest payments made to Treasury holders act as income. 

Therefore, to Warren, for inflation to come down the Fed needs to actually cut rates.

Jeff Park is the head of Alpha Strategies at Bitwise and an absolute powerhouse on all things options and derivatives. We sat down right as options on the US spot bitcoin ETFs started trading and had a fascinating 201-level discussion.

One of the biggest takeaways: Because crypto options marketplaces like Deribit operate 24/7 and ETF options hew to standard market hours, prices on each marketplace should actually be different. When there is more time for the option to trade (Theta), the probability of it expiring in the money is higher — which comes with a higher price for the option.

Dr. Stephen Miran is a fellow at the Manhattan Institute and worked at the US Treasury during the last Trump Administration. He’s a leading academic on the potential economic impact of Trump’s incoming trade policies, namely around tariffs

I had Stephen on the show for an exclusive launch interview for his latest paper, in which he unpacked the mechanical impacts of what tariffs could do to the US economy. He highlighted them as a necessary tool to help the US alleviate symptoms of what he calls the Triffin’s Dilemma — the associated residual effects of what happens when a country’s money is the global reserve currency.

George Robertson is a veteran macro trader and a true maven.  He has a unique view on what drives the economy and markets. The core of his revolutionary view: The Fed has no actual impact on the economy in terms of its mechanical policy implementations; it’s almost entirely psychological. 

These episodes were my favorite because each guest held unorthodox views that they developed independently to become leading thinkers within their domains. 

As we head into another year of wicked episodes on Forward Guidance, I encourage you to revisit some of these truly excellent podcasts!


Get the news in your inbox. Explore Blockworks newsletters:

Tags

Decoding crypto and the markets. Daily, with Byron Gilliam.

Upcoming Events

Old Billingsgate

Mon - Wed, October 13 - 15, 2025

Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit (DAS) will feature conversations between the builders, allocators, and legislators who will shape the trajectory of the digital asset ecosystem in the US and abroad.

Industry City | Brooklyn, NY

TUES - THURS, JUNE 24 - 26, 2025

Permissionless IV serves as the definitive gathering for crypto’s technical founders, developers, and builders to come together and create the future.If you’re ready to shape the future of crypto, Permissionless IV is where it happens.

Brooklyn, NY

SUN - MON, JUN. 22 - 23, 2025

Blockworks and Cracked Labs are teaming up for the third installment of the Permissionless Hackathon, happening June 22–23, 2025 in Brooklyn, NY. This is a 36-hour IRL builder sprint where developers, designers, and creatives ship real projects solving real problems across […]

recent research

Nillion_DeSci_Report_Template.png

Research

Nillion’s Monad Integration is poised to catalyze the next phase of DeSci’s evolution by eliminating key privacy bottlenecks. This synergy allows researchers, institutions, and DAOs to exchange sensitive data and insights securely while managing governance and payments onchain.

article-image

Halliday CEO Griffin Dunaif said that there may be smaller margins on stablecoins, but lots of potential in the services around them

article-image

Discounted cash flow is as close as you can get to a fundamental truth in the art of financial valuation

article-image

Solana’s focus remains on fundamentals: stable usage, high yields, and expanding infrastructure

article-image

While new XRP futures ETFs are set to launch, the SEC could wait several months to greenlight more spot offerings

article-image

Bitcoin may have traded like a safe haven asset Wednesday, but analysts warn the trend may not last

article-image

The pixelated game Craft World is set in a post-apocalyptic world where dinosaurs live with humans