Is There a Holiday Bitcoin Rally in the Works?

On-chain data suggests bullish sentiment might be rising for bitcoin

article-image

Blockworks exclusive art by Axel Rangel

share

key takeaways

  • The unspent miner supply of crypto is closing in at all-time highs, which suggests that miners are holding on to their bitcoin in anticipation of an upcoming bull market
  • Singapore-based QCP capital wrote in a recent note that it expects a squeeze to take place over the holidays and into 2022 as liquidity thins out

Bitcoin has been range bound for most of December, stuck in a rut after the crash earlier this month that sent its price dropping from $57,000 to just above $48,000. But this might change over the course of the holiday period, according to two notes that came out today.

London-based GlobalBlock argues that some on-chain metrics are beginning to look bullish for bitcoin, after altcoins had some dramatic upwards moves earlier this week. The firm argues that the number of coins going unspent by miners is indicative of a belief by miners that upwards price action is on the horizon.

“On-chain metrics continue to be bullish as the unspent miner supply closes in on all-time-highs. These are the coins that are issued to miners as a reward for solving a block but have never been spent on-chain,” GlobalBlock’s Marcus Sotiriou wrote.

“This shows the sentiment of miners and, by holding their mined Bitcoin, this suggests that they anticipate significant price rise in the short to mid-term.”


Sotiriou added that he believes that Visa’s recent announcement that it was doubling-down on crypto adoption via its new crypto advisory division is also quite bullish for asset prices.

“Crypto being incorporated into the network effects of giants like Visa is how I think the crypto industry will on board billions of users over the next decade and hence avoid a multiyear bear market as seen in previous cycles,” he wrote.

In a note published Wednesday, Singapore’s QCP capital wrote that it was “surprised at the massive volume of option selling across the board.”

The firm said it believes that liquidity will thin out into the holidays and into 2022, and there will likely be a topside squeeze during that time.

Bitcoin started the Wednesday trading session in the US at about $49,200, up 0.3%, according to CoinGecko.


Get the day’s top crypto news and insights delivered to your inbox every evening. Subscribe to Blockworks’ free newsletter now.


Tags

Decoding crypto and the markets. Daily, with Byron Gilliam.

Upcoming Events

Old Billingsgate

Mon - Wed, October 13 - 15, 2025

Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit (DAS) will feature conversations between the builders, allocators, and legislators who will shape the trajectory of the digital asset ecosystem in the US and abroad.

Industry City | Brooklyn, NY

TUES - THURS, JUNE 24 - 26, 2025

Permissionless IV serves as the definitive gathering for crypto’s technical founders, developers, and builders to come together and create the future.If you’re ready to shape the future of crypto, Permissionless IV is where it happens.

Brooklyn, NY

SUN - MON, JUN. 22 - 23, 2025

Blockworks and Cracked Labs are teaming up for the third installment of the Permissionless Hackathon, happening June 22–23, 2025 in Brooklyn, NY. This is a 36-hour IRL builder sprint where developers, designers, and creatives ship real projects solving real problems across […]

recent research

Research Report Templates (19).png

Research

Suilend has grown into the top money market and liquid staking provider on Sui. STEAMM, Suilend’s Superfluid AMM, presents a compelling avenue for growing market share within Sui’s DEX landscape and revenue generation for the protocol. Suilend’s multi-product suite position it well for owning market share across key verticals. While current metrics across the Sui ecosystem are likely inflated due to Sui Foundation incentive programs, SEND trades at amongst the lowest multiples in the lend/borrow sector, suggesting that a bull case for continued growth in the ecosystem may be mispriced.

article-image

Crypto continues to do its thing: incentivizing behavior

article-image

Kraken will soon offer Backed ‘xStocks’ as Solana tokens

article-image

In a unanimous decision, the US Court of International Trade has ruled that Trump’s IEEPA tariffs are unlawful

article-image

The platform has over $22 million in assets and allows anyone to invest in tokenized real estate

article-image

Crypto games can face financial losses if they don’t take steps to squash bot accounts

article-image

Strive board member Ben Werkman expects thousands of firms to hold BTC, if only “to protect themselves”