Pantera Capital’s Morehead: We Are in a New Bull Cycle

Pantera, which earlier this year set its bitcoin price target to hit $115,000 by August 2021, has long looked to bitcoin halving cycles as a timeline for price movements.

article-image

Dan Morehead of Pantera Capital at Blockworks Digital Asset Summit 2021; Photo by Mike Lawrence

share

key takeaways

  • Dan Morehead says the days of vast price swings may be a thing of the past
  • Historically, bitcoin has seen two bear markets where the currency lost 83%, but the most recent two have been -61% and -54%, respectively

Just in time for bitcoin’s latest rally, Pantera Capital has released its investment letter and the firm is as optimistic as ever. 

“My sense is that we finished the halving cycle in April,” Morehead wrote in Pantera’s October blockchain letter. “We had a period of temporary insanity — where Chinese mining bans were thought to be negative and a few people had blockchain ESG upside down — and now we’re in a new bull market.”

Pantera, which earlier this year set its bitcoin price target to hit $115,000 by August 2021, has long looked to bitcoin halving cycles as a timeline for price movements. The world’s largest cryptocurrency typically sinks about 15 months prior to halving, which occurs every 210,000 blocks, before rising and rallying after the halving. 

Pantera chart

The most recent halving was in May 2020, but the rally peaked early in April 2021 when bitcoin broke $64,000. Looking to halvings, Morehead said, is important when trying to understand the change in the stock-to-flow ratio across each halving. 

The first halving reduced the supply of new bitcoins by 15% of the total outstanding bitcoins, he said, resulting in a major impact on new supply and pricing. The 2020 halving, by contrast, had less than a third of the impact on price. 

“Each subsequent halving’s impact on price will likely taper off in importance as the ratio of reduction in the supply of new bitcoins from previous halvings to the next decreases,” Morehead wrote. “Below is a chart depicting past halvings’ supply reductions as a percentage of the outstanding bitcoin at the time of the halving.”

All this means, Morehead said, that the wildly volatile price swings bitcoin has been known for will likely start to calm. 

“I long advocated that as the market becomes broader, more valuable, and more institutional the amplitude of price swings will moderate,” he wrote. 

Historically, bitcoin has seen two bear markets where the currency lost 83%, but the most recent two have been -61% and -54%, respectively. This also of course means that bitcoin’s bull markets will not see such dramatic swings either. 

“Unfortunately, there’s no free lunch,” Morehead said. “The flipside is we probably won’t see any more of the 100x-in-a-year rallies either.”

Even without a 100% increase, there is still room left in this rally, Morehead said, but to be clear he is still bullish. 

“If it ever hits -83% again, I’m going ALL IN,” he wrote. 

Pantera did not provide an updated price target in this letter. 

Tags

Upcoming Events

Old Billingsgate

Mon - Wed, October 13 - 15, 2025

Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit (DAS) will feature conversations between the builders, allocators, and legislators who will shape the trajectory of the digital asset ecosystem in the US and abroad.

Industry City | Brooklyn, NY

TUES - THURS, JUNE 24 - 26, 2025

Permissionless IV serves as the definitive gathering for crypto’s technical founders, developers, and builders to come together and create the future.If you’re ready to shape the future of crypto, Permissionless IV is where it happens.

Brooklyn, NY

SUN - MON, JUN. 22 - 23, 2025

Blockworks and Cracked Labs are teaming up for the third installment of the Permissionless Hackathon, happening June 22–23, 2025 in Brooklyn, NY. This is a 36-hour IRL builder sprint where developers, designers, and creatives ship real projects solving real problems across […]

recent research

Research Report Templates (1).jpg

Research

Jupiter has emerged as the undisputed liquidity backbone of Solana, commanding over 90% of spot DEX aggregation and 80% of perp trading volume. But behind the numbers lies a far more ambitious play: a cross-chain, vertically integrated super-app spanning swaps, synthetics, NFTs, memecoins, and launchpads. This report explores Jupiter’s rapid rise, the monetization upgrades reshaping its revenue profile, and the risks that could unwind its dominance, from token dilution to competition. With annualized revenues nearing $300M, the upside is undeniable, if it can navigate the turbulence.

article-image

In recent weeks, Helium has hit new all-time highs while passing major protocol milestones

article-image

Financial advisers in a January survey said equity ETFs were their top choice for gaining crypto exposure in 2025

article-image

“Why put a target out there that’s really speculative, not knowing exactly where this environment is going to go?” CarMax CEO Bill Nash said

article-image

While the head of Base may support legal sex work, Coinbase policies prohibit said workers from using its exchange.

article-image

EVM bottlenecks fundamentally hold back Ethereum’s scalability

article-image

In 2011, WikiLeaks faced a financial blockade imposed by the US government. It was Bitcoin’s first major test.