Bitcoin is enjoying a small breakout, but election volatility still to come
Option premiums and estimated daily volatility for bitcoin are projected to rise significantly around Nov. 6-8
s_l_0_o_P/Shutterstock modified by Blockworks
This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions, subscribe.
$71,000.
Bitcoin’s managed to retake $70K after months of trying. We haven’t seen it above this level since it carved out a fresh all-time high in spring.
And now — just a week before the US election — we’re enjoying a small breakout. However, Ledn’s John Glover believes that we need to see a two-day close above $73,000 before he expects any real moves higher.
But if bitcoin manages to hold on to that level, expect a “rapid move towards $80,000.”
Still, he’s not so sure we’ll go any higher. When we previously chatted with him, he thought he could see a move toward $87,000. That’s off the table as of right now, though he still believes there’s a possibility of hitting $100,000 by the end of Q1 next year, or into the start of the second quarter.
Here’s the thing though: There’s a lot of volatility to digest.
“Notably, option premiums and estimated daily volatility for both the US stock market and bitcoin are projected to rise significantly around 6-8 November, when the results of the elections are expected to be delivered,” Bitfinex analysts wrote in a report yesterday.
“Bitcoin, in particular, may experience even greater volatility than other risk assets, largely due to its perception as the ‘Trump Trade.’ This term, which has gained considerable traction in recent weeks, serves to reflect the market’s view of how BTC will fare dependent on the outcome of the election,” they continued.
According to a Kaiko report, a sentiment shift recorded in September could show a potential price move just days after the election.
In the chart above, “a steeper right skew on the November 8 expiry (orange) suggests increased demand for call options and expectations of rising prices,” Kaiko analysts said.
One thing’s for sure, with just one week until the election, there’s still a lot of time to see some serious price action.
Get the news in your inbox. Explore Blockworks newsletters:
- Blockworks Daily: Unpacking crypto and the markets.
- Empire: Crypto news and analysis to start your day.
- Forward Guidance: The intersection of crypto, macro and policy.
- 0xResearch: Alpha directly in your inbox.
- Lightspeed: All things Solana.
- The Drop: Apps, games, memes and more.
- Supply Shock: Bitcoin, bitcoin, bitcoin.
