Bitcoin goes up when CZ tweets ‘gm’: A theory
Bitcoin nears $100k two weeks after CZ tweeted gm. Coincidence?
Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao | Ben McShane/Web Summit via Sportsfile/"BE6_1591″ (CC license)
Crypto has all sorts of stories we hope are really true.
For one, bitcoin’s rising price is dictated by the world recognizing its raw disruptive power.
No way that it’s a simple reflection of the global liquidity cycle. Nor does it serve as a basic multiplier on the performance of megacap tech stocks in the Nasdaq 100. Correlation be damned. Coincidence at best.
Here’s another: The price of bitcoin goes up when Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao tweets “gm.”
It’s something I covered a while back. But that was before Zhao finished up his four-month prison stint in September, which included a stay in a Long Beach halfway house.
Zhao has since shared gms on X three times, and each one has preceded bitcoin pumping shortly after.
All in all, bitcoin has rallied 82% since Zhao first tweeted following his release two months ago — from about $54,600 to as much as $99,456 this morning.
Zhao has now tweeted “gm” on 11 different occasions across his full Twitter history, starting in March 2022.
On all but two, the price of bitcoin has gone up in a significant way within days, retained that value and then some. That’s an 80% success rate.
In fact, anyone who’d bought $1,000 worth of bitcoin alongside Zhao’s gms would’ve accumulated 0.317 BTC for $11,000.
They’d now be able to cash out almost $31,480, which is a profit of 186%.
Of course, correlation is not causation, and loads of stuff correlates with the price of bitcoin in any case.
Here’s a similar, but opposite, story from a few years back: the S&P 500 crashes every time rapper Lil Yachty releases music.
Still, for the superstitious, Zhao’s gms can’t hurt.
It’s now been two weeks since his last. Sounds overdue.
Get the news in your inbox. Explore Blockworks newsletters:
- Blockworks Daily: Unpacking crypto and the markets.
- Empire: Crypto news and analysis to start your day.
- Forward Guidance: The intersection of crypto, macro and policy.
- 0xResearch: Alpha directly in your inbox.
- Lightspeed: All things Solana.
- The Drop: Apps, games, memes and more.
- Supply Shock: Bitcoin, bitcoin, bitcoin.
