Bitcoin flashes signs of resiliency as October growth holds steady

More than two-thirds of the asset’s total supply is now held by individuals likely to be long-term holders

article-image

DRN Studio/Shutterstock, modified by Blockworks

share

Bitcoin (BTC) is less than six months from its next halving event anticipated for the start of April next year, leading to analyst speculation on the effect on its price trends. 

The asset is up more than 66% year-to-date to $27,600 after posting its first September win in seven years. Recent data indicates nuanced shifts in the crypto’s behavior, according to Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest. 

In its latest “The Bitcoin Monthly” report, the asset manager noted several noteworthy observations, including that the asset may be in “cyclically oversold territory.”

“Bitcoin’s Realized-Profits-to-Realized-Cap closed September at 0.02%, slightly above 0.01%, its yearly low. This oversold condition has occurred only seven times in bitcoin’s history,” the report said.

ARK’s data also indicated a significant concentration of bitcoin with long-term holders. It comes despite a dip in the asset’s price on Monday which some are attributing to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

Specifically, 76% of bitcoin’s total supply is now held by individuals who have not transacted in over 155 days. This could imply a reduced availability of bitcoin for active trading, Ark said.

Blockchain analytics firm, Glassnode, reported last week that the total bitcoin held long-term or presumed lost has hit a five-year record, exceeding 7.9 million BTC. 

In the broader financial landscape, bitcoin’s price movement appear to be diverging from traditional equity markets, a spokesperson for Bitfinex analysts told Blockworks.

Bitcoin’s price has recalibrated ahead of the S&P 500’s recovery from its 4,200-point low earlier this month. According to their analysis, correlation metrics showed bitcoin’s alignment with equities, which stood at 0.8 on August 25, has since fallen considerably.

By September, the correlation had flipped to -0.5, indicating a contrast to the movements of the world’s foremost digital asset and traditional equities. 

“This is usually observed in situations where there is a sudden bullish or bearish development for either asset class or if either bitcoin or the US stock market prices in information at a faster pace than the other,” the spokesperson said.


Don’t miss the next big story – join our free daily newsletter.

Tags

Upcoming Events

Hilton Metropole | 225 Edgware Rd, London

Mon - Wed, March 18 - 20, 2024

Crypto’s premier institutional conference returns to London in March 2024. The DAS: London Experience: Attend expert-led panel discussions and fireside chats Hear the latest developments regarding the crypto and digital asset regulatory environment directly from policymakers and experts.

Salt Lake City, UT

WED - FRI, OCTOBER 9 - 11, 2024

Pack your bags, anon — we’re heading west! Join us in the beautiful Salt Lake City for the third installment of Permissionless. Come for the alpha, stay for the fresh air. Permissionless III promises unforgettable panels, killer networking opportunities, and mountains […]

recent research

Research report - cover graphics (1).jpg

Research

In this report, we dive into crypto private market data to gather insights on where the future of the industry is headed. Despite a notable downturn in private raises, capital continues to infuse promising projects that aim to transform payments, banking, consumer experiences, community, and more, with 2023 being the fourth-largest year for crypto venture capital.

article-image

BUZZ holds shares of Coinbase, Robinhood and MicroStrategy

article-image

Opinion: Even though I didn’t pay for my “Diamond Hands” burger with BTC, don’t let that fool you into thinking that crypto’s development is futile

article-image

The results mark “a major positive inflection point,” one analyst says, as the exchange carries net income momentum into a crypto rally

article-image

While the slate of 10 US spot bitcoin funds have tallied $4.6 billion of net inflows thus far, half of the field is lagging the leaders

article-image

Trading volumes totalled $154 billion in Q4, including $125 billion in institutional volume

article-image

DeFi on Bitcoin is all the rage right now and Stacks is positioned to benefit