A bullish December rally could still be in the books

Although bitcoin hitting $120k by year’s end is looking unlikely

article-image

Artwork by Crystal Le

share


This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions, subscribe.


I am once again asking: Could we see a Santa Rally? 

Kaiko analysts reckon there’s a chance, though they don’t think it’s worth getting your hopes up for bitcoin at $120,000 by year-end (sad). 

The options data, as seen below, looks promising for a bullish December finale. There are far more calls than puts.

However, analysts think that any rally may be distributed across the ecosystem, with other coins getting a boost. 

“Any upcoming rallies will likely be much broader than last year. Since the election smaller layer-1 coins have been outperforming BTC and ETH as traders repricing risk amid regulatory shifts in the US,” the analysts wrote.

Oh, and any Santa Rally we see may not follow the traditional timeline of a rally (meaning that it occurs in the last five days of the year into the first two days of the new year). Let’s just hope Santa and his elves don’t have to work too much harder for everyone’s bags, I guess. 

This just underpins what we’ve been hearing from analysts and folks around crypto, which is that they expect crypto to come out looking strong in the beginning half of next year. In this week’s Empire pod, Daniel Matuszewski of CMS Holdings and Roshun Patel from Hack both carried a bullish tone. 

Patel, in particular, thinks that there could be big ETF inflows in January but expects seasonality to be a factor once we inch towards the summer. 

“I think as you go into March or May, you can maybe think a little bit more about portfolio rebalancing, but for now it’s like. It feels pretty healthy,” he told Jason Yanowitz. 

On the other hand, Matuszewski said that altcoins could have a similar market cycle to what we’ve seen in the past. However, he still expects “crazy swings” from the likes of memecoins and AI chatbot tokens. If I’m being honest, I’d be more afraid if both memecoins and AI chatbots weren’t volatile.


Get the news in your inbox. Explore Blockworks newsletters:

Tags

Decoding crypto and the markets. Daily, with Byron Gilliam.

Upcoming Events

Old Billingsgate

Mon - Wed, October 13 - 15, 2025

Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit (DAS) will feature conversations between the builders, allocators, and legislators who will shape the trajectory of the digital asset ecosystem in the US and abroad.

recent research

Research Report Templates.png

Research

Content Delivery Networks (CDNs) represent low-hanging fruit in a massive market ripe for Web3-driven disruption. The global CDN market was valued at ~$28B in 2024, and is projected to surpass $140B by 2034, (18.75% CAGR) underscoring the immense demand for efficient content delivery.

article-image

US dollars might technically be worth less, but it’s still good news

article-image

Apps are doing well, as is casino gaming, says Tom Schmidt of Dragonfly

article-image

Sponsored

Machine DeFi brings programmable peer-to-peer finance into contact with tangible machines that generate real-world value

article-image

What happens to your investment portfolio when the companies driving returns are no longer in it?

article-image

Wow, the ETF hype sure didn’t last long

article-image

The private sector lost 33,000 jobs in June; analysts had projected payrolls to add 100,000 positions