In a surprise to no one, Fed cuts rates by 25bps

Odds of a second 25bps cut in December are now at 66%, according to CME Group

article-image

Fed interest rate cut

share


This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, subscribe.


The FOMC today, as expected, lowered interest rates by 25 basis points. Committee members cited a commitment to “achieving maximum employment” and a 2% inflation target as reasons for the decision. 

Odds of a second 25bps cut in December are now at 66%, according to CME Group’s federal funds futures markets data.

The FOMC’s forward guidance (see what we did there) from this week’s meeting remained unchanged, indicating committee members likely are confident that interest rates will end 2024 another 25bps lower.

“In considering additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook and the balance of risks,” today’s statement read. 

It’s the same crucial sentence we’ve seen before, which shouldn’t shock markets. And, as a result of no surprises, stocks should see at least a mild extension of their Trump-fueled rally, according to Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye.

“Given yesterday’s strong rally, I’d expect some digestion of the move or a mild drift higher,” Essaye said. “However, this outcome should keep expectations for a rally into year-end in place, led by cyclical sectors — industrials, financials, small caps [and] energy — with tech and defensives lagging.”

The S&P 500 was up 0.6% over today’s session in the moments after the Fed’s decision, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite had gained 1.3% just after 2 pm ET.


Get the news in your inbox. Explore Blockworks newsletters:

Tags

Decoding crypto and the markets. Daily, with Byron Gilliam.

Upcoming Events

Old Billingsgate

Mon - Wed, October 13 - 15, 2025

Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit (DAS) will feature conversations between the builders, allocators, and legislators who will shape the trajectory of the digital asset ecosystem in the US and abroad.

Industry City | Brooklyn, NY

TUES - THURS, JUNE 24 - 26, 2025

Permissionless IV serves as the definitive gathering for crypto’s technical founders, developers, and builders to come together and create the future.If you’re ready to shape the future of crypto, Permissionless IV is where it happens.

Brooklyn, NY

SUN - MON, JUN. 22 - 23, 2025

Blockworks and Cracked Labs are teaming up for the third installment of the Permissionless Hackathon, happening June 22–23, 2025 in Brooklyn, NY. This is a 36-hour IRL builder sprint where developers, designers, and creatives ship real projects solving real problems across […]

recent research

Research Report Templates (19).png

Research

Suilend has grown into the top money market and liquid staking provider on Sui. STEAMM, Suilend’s Superfluid AMM, presents a compelling avenue for growing market share within Sui’s DEX landscape and revenue generation for the protocol. Suilend’s multi-product suite position it well for owning market share across key verticals. While current metrics across the Sui ecosystem are likely inflated due to Sui Foundation incentive programs, SEND trades at amongst the lowest multiples in the lend/borrow sector, suggesting that a bull case for continued growth in the ecosystem may be mispriced.

article-image

A Blockworks Research report looked at who could take up some of the marketshare in the launchpad space

article-image

Business-to-business stablecoin payments are on the rise, per a report from Artemis, Dragonfly and Castle Island

article-image

Crypto continues to do its thing: incentivizing behavior

article-image

Kraken will soon offer Backed ‘xStocks’ as Solana tokens

article-image

In a unanimous decision, the US Court of International Trade has ruled that Trump’s IEEPA tariffs are unlawful

article-image

The platform has over $22 million in assets and allows anyone to invest in tokenized real estate