In a surprise to no one, Fed cuts rates by 25bps

Odds of a second 25bps cut in December are now at 66%, according to CME Group

article-image

Fed interest rate cut

share


This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, subscribe.


The FOMC today, as expected, lowered interest rates by 25 basis points. Committee members cited a commitment to “achieving maximum employment” and a 2% inflation target as reasons for the decision. 

Odds of a second 25bps cut in December are now at 66%, according to CME Group’s federal funds futures markets data.

The FOMC’s forward guidance (see what we did there) from this week’s meeting remained unchanged, indicating committee members likely are confident that interest rates will end 2024 another 25bps lower.

“In considering additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook and the balance of risks,” today’s statement read. 

It’s the same crucial sentence we’ve seen before, which shouldn’t shock markets. And, as a result of no surprises, stocks should see at least a mild extension of their Trump-fueled rally, according to Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essaye.

“Given yesterday’s strong rally, I’d expect some digestion of the move or a mild drift higher,” Essaye said. “However, this outcome should keep expectations for a rally into year-end in place, led by cyclical sectors — industrials, financials, small caps [and] energy — with tech and defensives lagging.”

The S&P 500 was up 0.6% over today’s session in the moments after the Fed’s decision, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite had gained 1.3% just after 2 pm ET.


Get the news in your inbox. Explore Blockworks newsletters:

Tags

Decoding crypto and the markets. Daily, with Byron Gilliam.

Upcoming Events

Javits Center North | 445 11th Ave

Tues - Thurs, March 24 - 26, 2026

Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit (DAS) will feature conversations between the builders, allocators, and legislators who will shape the trajectory of the digital asset ecosystem in the US and abroad.

recent research

Unlocked by Template.png

Research

The march toward an interoperable and onchain-by-default internet depends on reliable messaging and value transfer across heterogeneous domains. Crosschain protocols now process >$1.3T in combined annual transfer volume and secure tens of millions of user interactions, yet no single design dominates.

article-image

Stripe stablecoin unit aims to operate under a federal charter enabling regulated stablecoin issuance and custody services

by Blockworks /
article-image

Will TradFi make crypto better or create more problems than it solves?

article-image

Subtle decisions by risk curators saved Aave from significant turmoil

article-image

The new Rootstock Institutional unit aims to connect professional investors to Bitcoin-native yield and liquidity strategies anchored in BTC’s security layer

by Blockworks /
article-image

DOJ files record civil forfeiture against more than 127,000 BTC linked to scam activity

by Blockworks /
article-image

Framework Ventures leads Crown’s $8.1 million seed round to fund BRLV, a fully backed Brazilian real stablecoin with institutional yield features.

by Blockworks /