Why Kalshi’s new $2B valuation makes sense
Prediction markets have found a mainstream fit
Kalshi co-founder and CEO Tarek Mansour | Permissionless IV by Ben Solomon for Blockworks
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“It’s the first time in US history, since the Great Depression, that you really can financialize anything,” Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour said yesterday during a Permissionless panel.
His talk, which was moderated by Paradigm’s Charlie Noyes, covered a range of topics from the rise of prediction markets to Kalshi taking on the CFTC and winning.
“The reason why [the legal fight against the CFTC] was important is, I never thought that there would be institutional adoption the way that we’re seeing today if we didn’t get regulated,” Mansour explained.
The fight, which he clarified started before Coinbase even took on the SEC, opened doors for both Kalshi and other prediction markets.
And then, just a few hours after the two were on stage, we got some news.
Kalshi raised $185 million in a Series C led by Paradigm. Other investors included Sequoia and Multicoin. The raise, according to Mansour, puts Kalshi at a $2 billion valuation, making yet another crypto-related unicorn.
Polymarket is in a similar boat, with a recent Bloomberg report claiming that Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund is leading a round that would put Polymarket’s valuation over $1 billion.
Is the $2 billion valuation for Kalshi a bit much? Actually, based on Mansour’s comments yesterday, I don’t think so. Prediction markets have really hit a mainstream audience — and are akin to stablecoins in that everyone acknowledges there’s a need and a product-market fit for them. Then there’s also the fact that Mansour, yesterday, said that Kalshi’s doing roughly $1 billion in monthly volume.
“We have around 1500 markets live today, up from 80 back in October. So, yeah, I think in terms of broader asset classes, I think prediction market is definitely the fastest one,” he said.
Mansour also alluded to where Kalshi — and prediction markets in general — may be going.
“Imagine a world where basically any difference of opinions can be settled on prediction markets, like you debate about something on a dinner table, and, whether this is the price of an asset or something happening in the future, and you can basically trade it actively on a prediction market,” he explained.
Getting a payout for a debate at the dinner table…and getting bragging rights…sounds pretty good to me.
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