Tokens aren’t fundamentally focused yet: Sigel

At DAS, VanEck’s Matthew Sigel weighed in on a market that’s “90% flows and 10% fundamentals”

article-image

VanEck crypto research head Matthew Sigel | DAS 2025 New York by Mike Lawrence for Blockworks

share

This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions, subscribe.


There are a handful of big themes coming out of the Digital Asset Summit (think regulation, macro, etc.) and then there are some smaller themes (venture capital, narratives and fundamentals). Fundamentals have been something I’m especially keen on. 

We’ve spoken to Blockworks Research’s Ryan Connor about the role they’re playing, and I think I’ve vocalized my excitement for fundamentals a few times now. However, we’re still not really seeing that play out. 

In a panel with the one-and-only Connor yesterday, Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s head of digital assets research, told the crowd that he used to say token prices were half fundamentals and half flows — but he doesn’t believe that anymore. 

“I think it’s 90% flows and 10% fundamentals. And you can see that in the market cap of XRP versus Ethereum, and just look at how much economic activity goes across Ethereum versus XRP,” he explained. 

Speaking as a former stock market girl (aka reporter), it’s rough. But he has a point, and “you have to, I guess, respect the tape.”

For Sigel, it means that his firm’s been very selective on projects they’re backing. 

“You may have noticed [that] many of our competitors have been throwing a lot of single token ETFs at the wall this year in terms of filings. We’ve been much more judicious on that, instead doubling down on our active strategies. And it just means that we’re passing on more investments, because the active strategies are looking for great, doxxed teams that are building product equivalent where tokens should be able to actually capture value over the medium-run,” he explained. 

Unfortunately, it seems that we’re still not fundamentally focused — but I’ll hold out hope for that day.


Get the news in your inbox. Explore Blockworks newsletters:

Tags

Decoding crypto and the markets. Daily, with Byron Gilliam.

Upcoming Events

Old Billingsgate

Mon - Wed, October 13 - 15, 2025

Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit (DAS) will feature conversations between the builders, allocators, and legislators who will shape the trajectory of the digital asset ecosystem in the US and abroad.

Industry City | Brooklyn, NY

TUES - THURS, JUNE 24 - 26, 2025

Permissionless IV serves as the definitive gathering for crypto’s technical founders, developers, and builders to come together and create the future.If you’re ready to shape the future of crypto, Permissionless IV is where it happens.

Brooklyn, NY

SUN - MON, JUN. 22 - 23, 2025

🚀 Build What’s Next — Permissionless IV Hackathon Join us June 22–23 in Brooklyn for the Permissionless IV Hackathon — a 36-hour sprint hosted by Cracked Labs and Blockworks where top builders turn ideas into real products. Come to launch, not just […]

recent research

Research Report Templates (10).png

Research

Kamino has evolved into a full-stack asset scaling suite with V2: unlocking new markets, improving capital efficiency, and catering to various risk profiles. We believe it is best positioned to become the credit backbone of Solana as the ecosystem matures. Simply put, KMNO remains our highest-conviction bet in the Solana ecosystem. This report lays out our thesis.

article-image

Greenwood was a success story before it was a tragedy

article-image

All eight included staking in their most recent SEC filings

article-image

With an updated Summary of Economic Projections, the Fed sees growth slowing and inflation increasing

article-image

Where do crypto mobile games go from here?

article-image

Bybit’s Byreal, Binance Alpha and Coinbase’s DEX integrations

article-image

This isn’t the worst hack to ever hit Mt. Gox, but it could be the most entertaining