Traders ride risk-on sentiment to end November in the green

Cryptos and equities picked up steam Tuesday after an uneventful Monday, setting up traders for a positive end to a strong month. 

Bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH) were in the green time of publication, both posting gains of around 1.3% and 0.9%, respectively. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Indexes similarly clocked modest moves, with both up around 0.4%. 

Bitcoin has gained close to 9% since the start of the month. The largest cryptocurrency rallied more than 5% in the first ten days of November and has spent the past couple weeks jumping between $35,000 and $37,000. In 2022, amid the aftermath of FTX’s bankruptcy, bitcoin closed out November 16% lower. 

Ether also saw its biggest moves early in the month, rallying close to 15% in the first nine days of November before paring gains to trade around 10% higher on the month as of Tuesday. 

Better-than-expected inflation data pushed cryptos higher this month, analysts from Kaiko Research said. Last week’s news on Binance’s historic $4.3 billion settlement barely tipped the needle for cryptos, in sharp contrast to what the FTX news from one year ago did to markets, analysts added. 

“From an outsider’s perspective, the settlement proved grim, but within the industry, there was a sigh of relief knowing that Binance is still able to operate, albeit with increased restrictions and the dismissal of its CEO,” Kaiko researchers wrote in a Monday report. “While the exchange reportedly saw outflows of over $1 billion, the immediate impact on volumes and liquidity was muted.” 

Looking ahead, continued lower Treasury yields fuel traders’ risk-on attitudes, analysts say, but whether or not the trend is sustainable is up for discussion. Benchmark 10-year notes dropped to 4.35% Tuesday, down even further from Monday’s decline when they dipped from 4.47% to 4.39%. Still, a sustained reduction is unlikely, based on historical precedent, Nicolas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research said. 

“Any substantial decline in nominal 10-year Treasury yields would have to come from lower real rates rather than reduced inflation expectations,” Colas said. 

Since 2004, Colas said, only three conditions have led to real rates declining by 1% or more: recession, Federal Reserve bond buying, and the Fed changing its assessment of future interest rates. 

“Since capital markets are not discounting a recession and the Fed is highly unlikely to change its current bond selling program, the only thing that will force real yields lower is a change in policymakers’ belief that ‘higher rates for longer’ is necessary to quell inflation,” Colas said.  “As we get more data supporting the idea that inflation is continuing to decline, both bonds and stocks should rally further.”

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