Ben Strack

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forward-guidance" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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Given the recent GENIUS Act signing and certain firms soon reporting Q2 earnings, it’s as good a time as any for a crypto stock update.&nbsp;



After the stablecoin-focused bill became law, Compass Point analysts downgraded Circle stock from neutral to sell.



Their CRCL price target declined from $205 to $130, according to a Monday note.&nbsp;&nbsp;



Analysts Ed Engel and Abdullah Dilawar anticipated the rally leading up to the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/genius-act-passes-house">GENIUS Act signing</a>, but predicted the “sell-the-news” drop that came. Shares of CRCL were trading around $195 at 1:30 p.m. ET — down 14% in the last five days.



Competing stablecoins products from traditional banks and fintechs will also put pressure on CRCL’s premium valuation, they argued.&nbsp;



While CRCL&#8217;s $53 billion market cap (when the note was published) implied long-term expectations of ~25% market share and ~30% EBITDA margins, the $130 price target assumes 15% longer-term market share and 20% EBITDA margins.



Circle is set to report its second quarter earnings during an Aug. 12 webcast.



Moving on, Jefferies kicked off its coverage of Galaxy Digital on Tuesday with a buy rating and a $35 price target. I missed this while in court at the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/roman-storm-government-may-rest-case">Roman Storm trial</a>.



GLXY’s stock price was just above $30 at 1:30 p.m. ET — up about 12% this week.&nbsp;&nbsp;



Being a “comprehensive provider for institutions seeking digital asset exposure” gives Galaxy an edge over more specialized peers like prime brokerage FalconX, liquidity provider Cumberland, market maker Wintermute and bitcoin-focused firm NYDIG, Jefferies analysts argue.&nbsp;



The GENIUS Act could open up new stablecoin-related business opportunities (like custody or issuance partnerships), they added. <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/us-house-passes-clarity-act">The CLARITY Act</a> would likely contribute to “incremental” revenue opps as institutional players enter the segment.



Beyond that, roughly two-thirds of Galaxy’s enterprise value stems from its data center business, according to Jefferies. The company bought Argo Blockchain’s Helios mining facility in 2022 and is hosting CoreWeave AI and HPC operations there.



We’ll be listening to what Mike Novogratz has to say during Galaxy’s Aug. 5 earnings call.&nbsp;



Before Circle and Galaxy report their earnings next month, Coinbase will share its Q2 results on July 31.&nbsp;



Compass Point analysts, in a July 16 note, increased their Coinbase price target from $195 to $330 (COIN shares traded for ~$395 this afternoon). But it reiterated its neutral rating, rather than opting for “buy.”



Headwinds for the crypto exchange include US trading activity moving toward US ETFs, CME futures and decentralized exchanges. Monthly data from competitors like Robinhood and Exodus affirms weak Q2 trends to that end. 



<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="624" height="321" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXdFahGeN_g-af1h7aDPB_19dbDWe4Q0Y8_jK2pMIbNrIcSHdgL7qLbLLhRPpdk6CudaYGu26OGYr9Cdruyy-5G6LEOL6r6f1xVtKCc0HI2psZCas-B2-02kh4isBcqbXTN1r8CzwA?key=MFFChMm_9dlxyWTwVrYrqw">



Compass Point analysts estimate that Coinbase’s transaction revenue decreased 45% quarter over quarter.



“We&#8217;re hesitant toward shorting COIN during a crypto bull market and potential for Fed rate cuts — either from Powell or his successor,” Engel and Dilawar wrote. “However, if rate cuts and CLARITY act are postponed beyond 3Q25, this could pressure COIN&#8217;s valuation amid deteriorating fundamentals.”



Before you go enjoy your weekend (after reading the rest of this newsletter, of course), I’ll mention one other crypto-linked stock that just turned heads with its latest hire.&nbsp;



Nasdaq-listed SharpLink Gaming today <a href="https://x.com/ethereumJoseph/status/1948720039370092831">named</a> Joseph Chalom, BlackRock’s former head of digital asset strategy, as its co-CEO.&nbsp;



You might recognize the SharpLink name. It’s that <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-treasury-strategies-sharplink-eth">Joe Lubin-led company</a> that all of a sudden got really into Ethereum. It held 360,807 ETH, as of July 20. (For more on crypto treasury strategies, consider reading <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/companies-holding-crypto-phase-one">this</a>).&nbsp;&nbsp;



Sharplink’s stock is up about 110% from a month ago, but has dropped roughly 30% in the last week. Crypto equities remain a segment we’ll be watching closely.&nbsp;



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Circle

Crypto stock outlooks fluctuate after GENIUS, ahead of Q2 reports

The GENIUS Act is now law.&nbsp;



President Donald Trump on Friday signed the legislation, which provides a first-of-its-kind regulatory framework for US dollar-backed stablecoins.



Growing adoption of stablecoins — tokens pegged to fiat currencies that hold a market capitalization of roughly $250 billion — will have “a profound effect” on dollar dominance and demand for US debt, a senior US Treasury official said on a Friday press call.&nbsp;



More than a crypto bill, the law marks a milestone for payments innovation, the person added — as the federal government is essentially giving an unprecedented vote of confidence to permissionless blockchains.



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/stablecon-execs-bullish-stablecoins-financial-revolution">Digesting Stablecon: Execs bullish on imminent financial infrastructure revolution</a>



Trump’s signing of the bill comes a day after the House of Representatives <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/genius-act-passes-house">passed the GENIUS Act</a> in a 307-122 vote. The Senate had advanced the bill last month, when 18 Democrats joined Republicans as part of a 68-30 vote.&nbsp;



The <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/senate-bill/1582/text?q=%7B%22search%22%3A%22genius+act%22%7D">bill</a> gives the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) substantial oversight over prospective and approved stablecoin issuers. It requires such entities to keep fully-backed liquid reserves — such as cash and short-term Treasury securities — and ensures that those with more than $50 billion in issued tokens undergo annual audits.&nbsp;



The GENIUS Act also essentially requires state regulators to maintain frameworks that are “substantially similar” to those at the federal level. It offers an alternative to the previous “patchwork of state regulatory frameworks” that stablecoin issuers previously had to rely on, the senior Treasury official noted.&nbsp;



On Thursday, the House also <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/us-house-passes-clarity-act">passed the CLARITY Act</a>. That bill, which establishes a definition for “digital commodities” and divides crypto oversight between the CFTC and the SEC, now heads to the Senate.&nbsp;



Steve Kurz, Global Head of Asset Management at Galaxy, told Blockworks that these bills represent a huge unlock for not just crypto-native companies but for the larger financial institutions that Galaxy interacts with.&nbsp;



“It really takes what had been a business plan, a [crypto] working group or a check-the-box exercise and it puts it immediately into ‘Wait a minute, this is here, this is now, this is legal, we have to be doing it [because] our competitors are doing it,’” Kurz explained.&nbsp;



“I think this catch-up moment around digital infrastructure within large institutions is going to surprise a lot of people,” he added.



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/franklin-templeton-products-onchain-exec-says">All Franklin Templeton products will one day be onchain, exec says</a>



The bill signing comes as bitcoin has hit a number of new all-time highs this month, peaking around $123,000 this week. 



<a href="https://blockworks.co/news/circle-shares-nyse-day-one">Shares of Circle</a> — the second-largest stablecoin issuer behind Tether — were trading around $225, as of 2 p.m. ET — up 13% from a month ago.



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congress

President Trump signs GENIUS Act into law

Casey Wagner

The US House on Thursday passed the GENIUS Act in a 307-122 vote. The landmark stablecoin legislation will now advance to President Trump, who is expected to sign the bill into law on Friday, according to a person familiar with the matter.&nbsp;



The Senate passed the GENIUS Act last month with a 68-30 vote. 18 Democrats voted in favor.&nbsp;



The <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/senate-bill/1582/text?q=%7B%22search%22%3A%22genius+act%22%7D">bill</a> requires stablecoin issuers to maintain fully-backed reserves of US dollars or “similarly liquid” government-issued assets, such as bonds. Issuers with more than $50 billion in issued tokens must complete annual audits.&nbsp;



The law also affords more authority to state regulators, which will be required to maintain regulatory frameworks that are “substantially similar” to those at the federal level. Issuers who exceed $10 billion in issuance must be overseen by federal regulators or apply for an exemption.&nbsp;



Rep. Bryan Steil, who chairs the Subcommittee on Digital Assets, Financial Technology, and Artificial Intelligence, hailed the GENIUS Act as an important milestone for US crypto policy.&nbsp;



“It encourages the innovation and development of Web3 businesses here in the United States,” Steil said during the debate on Thursday morning. “It establishes clear rules to ensure that consumers are protected and businesses have clear regulations to responsibly participate in the digital asset ecosystem.”



Other Representatives insisted that the GENIUS Act does little to protect consumers and prevent runs on stablecoins.&nbsp;



“Central bankers last week issued a warning that stablecoins threaten global financial stability and need a much more restrictive regime than traditional finance,” Democrat Sean Casten said during Thursday morning’s debate.&nbsp;



“The GENIUS act ignores all those experts and instead ties stablecoins into our financial system, but without the safeguards that are required by banks and investment companies,” he added.&nbsp;



The passage comes after a dramatic few days for crypto policy.&nbsp;



After initially failing to pass a procedural vote on Tuesday, Trump met with GOP holdouts to come to an agreement to get the GENIUS Act over the finish line.&nbsp;



In a follow-up vote on Wednesday morning, the measure once again failed before eventually passing late in the evening after hours of vote-flipping and behind-closed-doors debate, according to people familiar with the matter.&nbsp;



Much of the holdup was due to two other crypto bills Representatives are currently considering: the CLARITY Act, which focuses on crypto market structure, and the Anti-CBDC Surveillance Act. Some Republicans wanted to combine the GENIUS and Anti-CBDC Acts, but the faction of the party that insisted on keeping the legislation separate ultimately prevailed.



This is a developing story.



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GENIUS Act passes House

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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It’s day two of “Crypto Week” in the US House.&nbsp;



The Rules Committee on Monday afternoon heard from fellow representatives on three crypto bills: the GENIUS Act, the CLARITY Act, and the Anti-CBDC Surveillance Act.&nbsp;



House members then failed to pass a procedural vote Tuesday that would have advanced further debate around the bills. Thirteen Republicans voted against the motion (alongside Democrats), bringing the final tally to 196-223.&nbsp;



With the exact next steps unclear, it remains worth knowing about each potential law and what proponents and critics have to say:



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">GENIUS Act&nbsp;</h2>



This is the stablecoin-focused bill that <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/genius-stablecoin-act-passes-senate-vote">passed the Senate</a> last month with bipartisan support. It’s poised to pass in the House, too, but not everyone is happy about it.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXf3lY5rLz4Ln2auqDC2XwNO-FnhDpCnr9hJMxu8TtJEqSMd7wDfSzVjIcQOvw3WxlZ8_asihETzMPAt-sJomxgeAdz36TBKLldOmzTixg1E8yjKo6k4SrQ5OOBpy7GdxDWgW91h?key=10fZU7ZsgvEMwThJTJ1Sbw" alt="" style="width:560px;height:auto"/></figure>



Most Democrats that oppose the <a href="https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/BILLS-119s1582es/pdf/BILLS-119s1582es.pdf">bill</a> argue it fails to stop President Trump and his family from <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/world-liberty-permissionless">profiting off of USD1</a>, the stablecoin tied to World Liberty Financial.&nbsp;



When asked during Monday night’s Rules Committee hearing why he wouldn’t support an amendment that explicitly bars the president from issuing a stablecoin, Rep. French Hill said Trump is not the issuer of a stablecoin — but an owner of a company that issued one.&nbsp;



When pressed further, Hill said the Senate had already discussed this issue at length (and 68 Senators still voted to pass the bill).&nbsp;



Some Dems also think that while the bill might be a step in the right direction, it falls short. The legislation is too weak on anti-money-laundering and terrorism-financing protections, opponents insist.&nbsp;



US-based stablecoin issuers have largely gotten behind the legislation. Circle — fresh off its<a href="https://blockworks.co/news/circle-shares-nyse-day-one"> public market debut</a> — has even applied to establish a national trust bank in order to align with the policy.&nbsp;



For foreign issuers like Tether, the GENIUS Act comes with more hoops to jump through. The bill mandates that stablecoins be backed by cash and cash equivalents and that issuers file regular audited financial statements, something Tether has yet to do (despite quarterly attestation reports).&nbsp;



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">CLARITY Act&nbsp;</h2>



The CLARITY <a href="https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/BILLS-119hr3633rh/pdf/BILLS-119hr3633rh.pdf">bill</a> does two main things: First, it establishes the concept of (and defines) “digital asset commodities.” Second, it divides regulatory authority between the SEC and the CFTC.&nbsp;



The CLARITY Act is a bit more controversial within the industry. It’s by far the longest bill of the three, so it gives interested parties more to fight over.&nbsp;



One of the main issues brought up by opponents of the bill relates to decentralization. Sufficiently decentralized blockchains — defined in the legislation as transparent chains with no person or individual in control — are considered commodities.&nbsp;



The Rules Committee on Monday allowed the bill to advance, but representatives will have some amendments to consider.&nbsp;



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Anti-CBDC Surveillance Act&nbsp;</h2>



This one is straightforward. It seeks to amend the Federal Reserve Act to prohibit the central bank <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/house-passes-cbdc-anti-surveillance-act">from issuing</a> a retail central bank digital currency (CBDC).&nbsp;



Proponents like the privacy aspects of the <a href="https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/BILLS-119hr1919rh/pdf/BILLS-119hr1919rh.pdf">bill</a>, arguing that a CBDC could give the government too much access to sensitive information.&nbsp;



Those against it say ruling out ever establishing a CBDC could put the US behind other countries exploring the technology. Democrat Rep. Stephen Lynch said the bill is “an act of breathless stupidity.” 



This is a developing story. Check <a href="http://blockworks.co">Blockworks.co</a> and the daily Forward Guidance <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forward-guidance">newsletter</a> for further updates.



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The bills up for debate as ‘Crypto Week’ continues

As expected, the Senate passed the <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/genius-act">GENIUS Act</a> with bipartisan support Tuesday evening. It’s the first stablecoin-focused bill to pass a chamber of Congress.&nbsp;



The bill passed in a 68-30 vote. 



The GENIUS Act “ensures American consumers and businesses can participate in the digital economy with confidence and security,” Sen. Cynthia Lummis, who co-sponsored the legislation, said ahead of Tuesday’s vote.&nbsp;



The <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/senate-bill/1582/text?q=%7B%22search%22%3A%22genius+act%22%7D">bill</a> requires stablecoin issuers to maintain fully-backed reserves of US dollars or “similarly liquid” government-issued assets, such as bonds. Issuers with more than $50 billion in issued tokens must complete annual audits.&nbsp;



The law also affords more authority to state regulators, which will be required to maintain regulatory frameworks that are “substantially similar” to those at the federal level. Issuers who exceed $10 billion in issuance must be overseen by federal regulators or apply for an exemption.&nbsp;



Not all members of the minority party are satisfied. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, a longtime <a href="https://www.banking.senate.gov/newsroom/minority/on-senate-floor-warren-urges-colleagues-to-use-their-leverage-and-vote-no-on-genius-act-until-critical-issues-addressed">critic</a> of seemingly pro-crypto policy, called the legislation “flawed.”&nbsp;



“A bill that meaningfully strengthens oversight of the stablecoin market is worth enacting,” she said on the Senate floor last month. “A bill that turbocharges the stablecoin market, while facilitating the President’s corruption and undermining national security, financial stability, and consumer protection is worse than no bill at all.”



Other Democrats resigned that while the bill is not perfect, it is a step in the right direction.&nbsp;



“We weren’t able to include certainly everything we would have wanted, but it was a good bipartisan effort,” Democrat Angela Alsobrooks told reporters on Monday. “This is an unregulated area that will now be regulated.”



The bill received more than 100 proposed <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/senate-bill/1582/amendments">amendments</a> from Republicans and Democrats alike.&nbsp;



The next step for Congress will be to pass a market structure bill, Lummis added, saying that draft legislation will be released in the coming weeks.



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Stablecoin bill passes the Senate with bipartisan support

Donovan Choy

This is a segment from the 0xResearch newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/0xresearch" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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In the wake of <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/circle-hits-75-nyse-trading">Circle’s IPO</a> and Plasma’s token sale, stablecoins are undisputedly in vogue.



Meanwhile, the US Senate is going into a final vote on the landmark stablecoin bill, dubbed the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/senate-advances-genius-act">GENIUS Act</a>, this week.



What does the stablecoin landscape look like today?



First, total stablecoin supply remains up and to the right — $249 billion in the last week. USDT and USDC represent the lion’s share of stablecoins, about 88% ($218 billion) of the entire stablecoin market put together.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXcwOcBAI_1ARWa4GWK9q7hORy4CfolwJ45QA9kdi4a4tWP6cQNMNqfKD3KjkD8TeDtASgakuQaXFPgK81uM1oaF5XWuUl_t-NgxVZCTfRvHtaQyEMQ8XmJQvfbKtuoGbYNgBaFGtw?key=uZGaWtDD5o70irUY8op54A" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: <a href="https://app.blockworksresearch.com/analytics/l1?dashboard=225">Blockworks Research</a></figcaption></figure>



Okay, stablecoin supply is growing, but how are they being used?



B2B use cases drive the largest share of stablecoin usage today.



B2B cross-border payments tracked at nearly $3 billion in February 2025 alone, compared to $1.1 billion for card-based spending, $1.5 billion in peer-to-peer payments, or $275 million in B2C payments across the same time period.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXeMXE7gk2EeffMZD7wbBCo1uOq_XW6EFA4mzjZTB8EYdS4F1R0Ury-IIOU_2exUgm--Zg_wkDbpYz-dgk3Wh60u_5UPsfjvkCTJne0XhcXjTldCTyP2MKw0fyi6mEHSYTd4fr9m?key=uZGaWtDD5o70irUY8op54A" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: <a href="https://www.stablecoin.fyi/use-case#b2b-stablecoin-volumes">Stablecoin.fyi</a></figcaption></figure>



18% of small and medium US businesses “[that] are aware of cryptocurrency” use stablecoins for their business needs in 2025 — up from 8% in 2024, according to Coinbase’s State of Crypto 2025 <a href="https://assets.ctfassets.net/sygt3q11s4a9/6oinXHvVekdIUw2Ch7yIQw/22d0185eba3c49322ce7cf0d287ea872/SOCQ2Report_final.pdf">report</a>.



The chains facilitating the most stablecoin transfers? Ethereum, Base and Tron.&nbsp;



In May, Ethereum saw $1.2 trillion in volumes (29%), while Base had $1 trillion (26%) and Tron $687 billion (17%). Total stablecoin volumes in May came up to $4 trillion.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXdMht8oQftaPSSSvZmqb1ELTZHuK87BgVNg2dqZyZo28efugDVzXJUumx2D8JaCBNeIeXjXaPWk2LRRCdOqHv6iGpzSeBgAU2HdEYfJoxOKC2a46vh-w1N46HM5dhh0kxazQo9_?key=uZGaWtDD5o70irUY8op54A" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: <a href="https://app.artemisanalytics.com/stablecoins?tab=chains">Artemis</a></figcaption></figure>



Should the GENIUS Act come to pass, which players stand to gain the most?



If the GENIUS Act requires stablecoins to be backed by US dollars or Treasury bills, the answer is probably: TradFi regulated issuers such as Circle, traditional Fintech companies like PayPal, and banks and money market funds, Blockworks Research analyst Luke Leasure told me.



Decentralized stablecoins like Ethena’s USDe or Sky’s (previously Maker) USDS are not entirely backed by cash equivalents, so would not be compliant with GENIUS (unless registered in the US).



Yet, there are still downstream positive effects for DeFi from a burst in stablecoin growth.



In particular, money markets like Aave and Pendle stand to gain.



On Aave v3 alone (across all chains), stablecoins make up about $10.2 billion in TVL.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXfta1DbYCfqjWBYsWOCcjBCPHFUcCn24uc-Lrx2I6qU-qeYvm6iVvZCjMSxd4rQ0PgiymNXKItoUtRpiK8_TQWgAnXxHqXC1T_-1xDgoVkMe0tMQlUrJWqw-VgBfL1x1hgTu7p6CA?key=uZGaWtDD5o70irUY8op54A" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: <a href="https://defillama.com/protocol/tvl/aave-v3">DefiLlama</a></figcaption></figure>



What about Pendle?



Though Pendle is technically a “yield trading” app, it has cemented itself as a de facto go-to-market platform for all yield-bearing assets, particularly stablecoins.



High risk appetite users onchain don’t just want to stake and earn an underlying T-bill yield, they want to speculate on points.



A snapshot of Pendle’s $5.3 billion in TVL today demonstrates the business’s effectiveness in capturing the downstream growth of new yield-bearing stablecoin launches. About ~61% of it comprises Ethena’s USDe and eUSDe (a restaking token), Sky’s USDS and OpenEden’s USDO.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXeMAW-x1DpEbtyttgYSbMOGeSquG7_iNAY9SGmkRPPK4MNB0irqYXh-WMUjmPFkjX6jUHYczCYVRzJjtJ3uLxYWIDevFeNFQYk8q4Ei8t2xFUrB2UcjxFf6Ify6du9hx_QmUxMTQw?key=uZGaWtDD5o70irUY8op54A" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: <a href="https://defillama.com/protocol/tvl/pendle">DefiLlama</a></figcaption></figure>



A recent <a href="https://www.modularcapital.xyz/writing/pendle">report</a> from Spartan Group and Modular Capital found that Pendle has captured approximately 30% of the whole $11 billion yield-bearing stablecoin market — about 1.3% of total stablecoin supply.



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What does ‘stablecoin summer’ look like?

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With Congress back in session, senators have their work cut out for them if they want to meet President Trump’s deadlines.&nbsp;



Due first is Trump’s sweeping tax and budget package, <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/tax-bill-trump-congress-gop">dubbed the</a> “One Big Beautiful Bill Act.” An updated version of the legislation passed the House last month in a razor-thin vote (215-214).&nbsp;



Two Republican representatives (Thomas Massie and Warren Davidson) voted against the bill. Chair of the House Freedom Caucus Andy Harris voted present after the coalition expressed concern over the level of spending in the bill.&nbsp;



The bill now heads to the Senate, where it’s expected to face similar opposition from certain GOP holdouts. Republican leadership has a goal for the bill (ideally one that looks as close as possible to the current version) to make it to the president&#8217;s desk by the Fourth of July.&nbsp;



During an <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_KpsqN5hW-M">interview</a> with CBS last week, House Speaker Mike Johnson said he’s advised GOP senators to “make as few modifications as possible.”&nbsp;



Senate Majority Leader John Thune later told reporters he plans to make an “imprint” on the bill. Assuming all Democrats vote against the bill and no one is absent, Republicans can have a maximum of three senators stray from the party.&nbsp;



Next on senators’ to-do list is the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/senate-advances-genius-act">GENIUS Act</a>, which Trump wants to see passed before summer’s end. The president’s crypto business interests, which seem to be growing <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/trump-wallet-magic-eden">by the day</a>, pose a problem for bipartisan support, a person familiar with the matter told me.&nbsp;



Democrats are getting less and less likely to support any crypto legislation the more Trump and his family engage personally with the industry.&nbsp;



Some members of Congress and crypto lobbying groups have started toying with the idea of combining stablecoin and market structure legislation into one bill. This would be a massive undertaking, but with wavering support from Democrats, the odds of passing two crypto bills before midterms are starting to look slim.



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Trump pressures Senate to pass budget, crypto bills

The Republican-sponsored GENIUS Act, which seeks to establish regulatory guidelines for stablecoins, has passed a key procedural vote in the US Senate.&nbsp;



The legislation is now clear to advance to a full floor vote. The cloture vote passed  66-32 on Monday evening.



The passage comes after a cloture vote on the GENIUS Act <a href="https://x.com/Blockworks_/status/1920552806135538057">failed</a> earlier this month in a 48-49 vote.&nbsp;



Senators have been negotiating elements of the bill over the past few weeks, people familiar with the matter told Blockworks.



The latest draft of the bill states that foreign stablecoin issuers not predominantly engaged in financial services activities must be unanimously approved by the Stablecoin Certification Review Committee, according to a copy of the draft obtained by Blockworks.&nbsp;



The new draft also updates some of the language around data sharing, stating that stablecoin issuers are permitted to share consumer information only when needed to comply with existing laws or legal requirements.&nbsp;



Some Democrats, however, are still unsatisfied with the new language, which has not been released publicly. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, a longtime critic of crypto-friendly legislation, told Senators ahead of the vote that the GENIUS Act, as it currently stands, is “worse than no bill at all.”&nbsp;



“It is fitting that we are voting on the GENIUS Act just a few days before President Trump hosts a ‘private, intimate dinner and a VIP White House tour’ for the top investors in his memecoin,” Warren added.&nbsp;



While a floor vote on the GENIUS Act has not yet been scheduled, it could be on the calendar as soon as this week.



This story has been updated with finalized vote tally figures. 



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Senate advances stablecoin bill in cloture vote redo

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Just months after taking a euphoric victory lap around Washington to celebrate the new administration, it would appear the crypto industry has a Trump problem.&nbsp;



2025 was supposed to be a <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/trump-das-crypto-address">historic year</a> for crypto legislation. With a favorable White House and established <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/crypto-bipartisan-usa-polarization">bipartisan</a> <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/senators-oppose-sec-accounting-standards">support</a> for policy, lawmakers and industry members expected to have new laws passed before midterm elections.&nbsp;



But, as Ben <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/legislative-speed-bumps-genius-act-sec">wrote about yesterday</a>, nine Democrats pulled support for the current version of the stablecoin-focused GENIUS Act. They cited wanting stronger provisions around anti-money laundering and national security, for example.&nbsp;



Then there are concerns over the president’s family’s crypto business endeavors. Thanks to Trump’s <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/trump-more-than-a-memecoin">memecoin launch</a> in mid-January, tensions have been building since before Inauguration Day. In the months since, World Liberty Financial (the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/on-the-margin-newsletter-trump-family-defi-venture">Trump family’s</a> crypto venture) has floated stablecoin plans and recruited investors.



Many Democrats, like Financial Services Ranking Member Maxine Waters, insist this is a clear conflict of interest, and lawmakers should not be advancing policy that would directly benefit Trump’s <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/crypto-prices-dinner-donald-trump">business initiatives</a>.



“I am deeply concerned that Republicans aren’t just ignoring Trump’s corruption, they are legitimizing Trump and his family’s efforts to enrich themselves on the backs of average Americans,” Waters wrote in a Tuesday statement after she objected to a planned joint House hearing on crypto.&nbsp;



“Through his crypto businesses, Trump has turned the office of the presidency into a personal money-making machine,” she added.&nbsp;



The comments come after members of the House Financial Services and Agriculture committees gathered this morning for a joint hearing on the newly released crypto market structure bill <a href="https://financialservices.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=409719">discussion draft</a>.&nbsp;



The hearing didn’t get very far, though, as Waters objected to the gathering. Because unanimous approval is needed for joint hearings, she was successful in stopping the official proceedings.&nbsp;



Digital Assets Subcommittee Chair Bryan Steil pivoted, and called for a roundtable discussion — a loophole allowing the witnesses to provide testimony and answer lawmakers’ questions. Waters then left the room, asking colleagues to join her for a separate meeting to discuss Trump’s crypto dealings.&nbsp;



Financial Services Committee Chairman French Hill countered Waters, noting the market structure draft and the stablecoin-focused STABLE Act are intended to bring crypto out of regulatory purgatory. The bills, he said, seek to fill <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/washington-dc-blockchain-summit-takeaways">gaps in oversight</a> that even President Biden admitted existed. Up until recently, they had significant bipartisan support.&nbsp;



Crypto lobbying groups and Hill insiders have known for weeks that these legislative efforts would face roadblocks from Democrats.&nbsp;



Groups have even proposed combining the market structure and stablecoin bills into a single piece of legislation. The theory was that it’s extremely unlikely lawmakers will pass two crypto bills, but the problem with one super bill is it gives everyone a lot more to fight over.&nbsp;



The new market structure discussion draft in the House is similar to bills from the last session of Congress: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/house-passes-act-fit21-with-bipartisan-support">FIT21</a> in the House and <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-ether-to-be-regulated-as-commodities-by-cftc-per-new-senate-bill">DCCPA</a> in the Senate.&nbsp;



Generally speaking, the legislation seeks to clarify the roles of the SEC and CFTC. It also outlines the process for listing tokens, consumer protections and disclosure requirements. A big difference between this draft and FIT21 is that the new version does not include the term “decentralized system.” A <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/fit21-isnt-crypto-win">key criticism</a> of FIT21 was that the focus on “decentralization” was too great, potentially making it more challenging for certain token issuers to be compliant.&nbsp;



The key term here though is really “discussion draft.” The industry can now submit comments on the bill, so we’re still several steps away from a floor vote.



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Rep. Waters blocks joint House crypto hearing, cites Trump conflict of interest

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Roads that people drive fast on sometimes get speed bumps. I live in Queens, so I’d know.&nbsp;



While pro-crypto developments have <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/trump-first-100-days-crypto-policy">quickly proliferated</a> this year, we’ve seen a couple legislative slowdowns in recent days.&nbsp;



Nine Democratic senators — Digital Assets Subcommittee ranking member Ruben Gallego among them — noted they would not vote for the current version of the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/senate-advances-stablecoin-bill">(GENIUS) Act</a>.&nbsp;



If it gets to the floor, that is.



Desired additions include “stronger provisions on anti-money laundering, foreign issuers, national security, preserving the safety and soundness of our financial system and accountability for those who don’t meet the act’s requirements,” they wrote in a Saturday statement.



This development made waves in the crypto community, especially considering the Senate Banking Committee advanced the bipartisan bill out of committee in March with an 18-6 vote that included five Democrats.



Gallego addressed the decision in a weekend X post:



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">This isn’t some reversal out of nowhere by Dems. The fact of the matter is, Dems, including me and my team, were trying to negotiate with the Republicans for weeks. The bill that was introduced for floor consideration back-pedaled on a lot of the progress we made and did not… <a href="https://t.co/hq5HxtEmcx">https://t.co/hq5HxtEmcx</a>&mdash; Senator Ruben Gallego (@SenRubenGallego) <a href="https://twitter.com/SenRubenGallego/status/1919107948317454394?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 4, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



Galaxy Digital research head Alex Thorn acknowledged that an updated draft of the bill was released on May 1. He argues in a <a href="https://x.com/intangiblecoins/status/1919387739444654508">note</a>, however, that nearly all the changes made in recent weeks “make the bill stricter on stablecoin issuers when compared to the version the Senate Banking Committee voted on.”



Essentially endorsing the GENIUS Act, Thorn’s note explains that the crypto industry “both gets a viable pathway while also being reigned in, it protects the financial system, and it helps America succeed geopolitically and in the shifting global economy.”



Amanda Fischer, Better Markets policy director and an ex-SEC chief of staff, sees the situation a bit differently:



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">Since the Committee mark-up, the DOJ announced it’d no longer enforce anti-money laundering laws against crypto companies, POTUS launched a stablecoin &amp; did a $2B deal with a foreign government and Binance. If that’s not grounds for a “retrade” what is? <a href="https://t.co/H9cThLLhEY">https://t.co/H9cThLLhEY</a>&mdash; Amanda Fischer (@amandalfischer) <a href="https://twitter.com/amandalfischer/status/1919066651644858404?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 4, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



In the case there was trepidation given <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitgo-to-custody-wlfi-usd1">World Liberty Financial’s USD1</a>, CoinFund president Christopher Perkins <a href="https://x.com/perkinscr97/status/1919206924379177399">said</a>: “Enough of the politics, let&#8217;s focus on doing what&#8217;s right for a change.”&nbsp;



With everyone and their crypto moms sharing their thoughts on X, the CEOs of Blockchain Association, Crypto Council for Innovation and the Digital Chamber also put in their two cents.&nbsp;



They noted being “grateful” for the “significant strides” the GENIUS Act has already made and urged the Senate to bring the bill to the floor for debate this week.&nbsp;



“We hope to see meaningful refinements to further ensure US leadership in digital finance,” Kristin Smith, Ji Kim and Cody Carbone wrote.



So we’ll see how this snag impacts the timeline for when this legislation could see the light of day. Here at Forward Guidance, Casey recently <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/congress-crypto-market-structure-bill-regulation-cftc">shared an update</a> on the crypto market structure bill, too. We had previously heard a perhaps ambitious goal of having these passed by the end of the summer.



The Democratic senators did note in their GENIUS Act statement: “We recognize that the absence of regulation leaves consumers unprotected and vulnerable to predatory practices.”



So it would seem we’ll get there eventually.&nbsp;



Separately (but speaking of legislative speed bumps), Arizona governor Katie Hobbs vetoed a bill that would have allowed the state treasurer and retirement system to invest up to 10% of public funds in “virtual currency” like bitcoin.



Hobbs wrote in a <a href="https://www.azleg.gov/govlettr/57leg/1r/sb1025.pdf">letter</a> to Senate President Warren Petersen: “Arizonans’ retirement funds are not the place for the state to try untested investments like virtual currency.”



Interestingly, it appears the Arizona State Retirement System <a href="https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1558481/000089706925000898/xslForm13F_X02/informationtable.xml">owned</a> nearly 67,000 shares of Michael Saylor-led bitcoin treasury company Strategy at the end of Q1 (worth ~$19 million at the time).&nbsp;It would seem the “need for more education” trope continues to be a cliché with merit.



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Crypto industry sounds off on legislative speed bumps

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Investors may still be recovering from tariff policy whiplash, but the world keeps spinning.&nbsp;



Representatives on the House Financial Service’s Digital Assets Subcommittee met today for a hearing on US crypto policy. That topic may not be top of the news cycle, but is still big in Washington.&nbsp;



Rep. Brad Sherman from California, who has long been skeptical of any legislation deemed “pro crypto,” had an interesting take. “New coins” will overtake “old coins,” he said, and he’s all for new coins. 



We aren’t sure at all what he means here, but we think he’s saying he’d like to see some disruption in the crypto space. 



The hearing comes after six Financial Services Committee Democrats voted to advance the House’s STABLE Act last week. The legislation is similar to the GENIUS Act <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/senate-advances-stablecoin-bill">in the Senate </a>(which also received bipartisan support), but the House’s version gives more power to state regulators to oversee issuers.&nbsp;



The next step for both bills will be a full floor vote. Should the trade war continue to escalate, we expect crypto legislation will move to the back burner. Still, insiders on the Hill tell us stablecoin legislation should be the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/stablecoin-legislation-top-priority">first crypto measure</a> to pass. Up next is market structure, which has the industry much more divided.&nbsp;



Meanwhile, in the Senate, <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/paul-atkins-sec-chair-hearing">Paul Atkins’ nomination</a> to the SEC today passed the cloture vote, 51-45. The final vote could be scheduled as soon as this evening.&nbsp;



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Congress keeps talking crypto amid trade war shifts

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Senator Bill Hagerty’s GENIUS Act — aiming to establish <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/stablecoin-legislation-update">regulatory guidelines</a> for stablecoin issuers — advanced to the Senate floor today after a Banking Committee markup.&nbsp;



If there’s bipartisan support for the legislation, it was not apparent during today’s debate. Democrats put forth a number of amendments to the bill, urging lawmakers to adopt further protections against money laundering and consider more strict guidelines for issuers to receive licenses.&nbsp;



Republican Committee members voted against all of Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s proposed amendments, often with little debate. Hagerty and Sen. Cynthia Lummis, the Act’s main champions, argued the current bill includes AML provisions, robust reserve guidelines, and a strict registration process for issuers.



Democrat proposals would only increase regulatory oversight without increasing consumer protection, Lummis added.



At one point Sen. Warren criticized her Republican colleagues and accused them of “steamrolling” Democrats to advance the bill.&nbsp;



In the end, four Democrats (Sens. Warner, Kim, Blunt-Rochester and Gellego) voted to move the bill out of committee and to the floor.&nbsp;



The GENIUS Act now moves to the full Senate, which will debate the legislation, potentially add amendments, and eventually vote. Should it pass, the legislation will move to the House.&nbsp;



Representatives on the House Financial Services Committee are currently considering a similar bill, the STABLE Act, which they discussed earlier this week in a hearing. The legislation is still in the discussion draft phase and has not formally been introduced.



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Senate advances stablecoin bill with bipartisan support

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Members of the House Financial Services Committee heard from crypto and banking executives on the state of payment stablecoins this morning.&nbsp;



Lawmakers have a few bills to consider: the <a href="https://files.constantcontact.com/9f2b5e3d701/6c1f8aa0-095c-4a22-9982-2f4380d0b531.pdf">STABLE Act</a>, Rep. Tom Emmer’s <a href="https://emmer.house.gov/press-releases?ID=E5F1A85D-F204-496A-9AAC-9EEFB6D01DD7">anti-CBDC bill</a>, and the CRA seeking to <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-joint-resolution/64/text">overturn the CFPB’s</a> new rule that would expand federal supervision over wallet and payment providers.&nbsp;



The hearing comes as the industry continues to quarrel over <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/stablecoin-legislation-top-priority">what stablecoin regulation</a> should look like in the US. In the Senate, the latest discussion draft of the GENIUS Act sets reserve and anti-money laundering requirements for overseas stablecoin issuers. The bill is set to go to mark-up on Thursday.&nbsp;



Both the GENIUS Act and the STABLE Act seek to divide oversight authority between federal and state agencies.&nbsp;



Party lines showed during today’s hearing. Rep. Maxine Waters, in her opening remarks, criticized the Trump administration for its approach to the digital asset industry.&nbsp;



“Despite my belief that the Trump administration only wants crypto legislation that personally benefits them and protects [its] crypto financiers, I still hope that we can work together on a bill that requires stablecoins be robustly and fairly regulated,” Waters said to Rep. French Hill.&nbsp;



Trump last week said he expects to have a stablecoin bill on his desk by August. But if committees keep up their current pace, a bill could make it to a full floor vote sooner.&nbsp;



Of course, for anything to make it to the White House, both chambers will have to approve the legislation. That could be a tall order.



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Donald Trump

House Financial Services kicks off stablecoin discussions 

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">subscribe</a>.



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The Senate Banking Committee’s Digital Asset Subcommittee held its first <a href="https://www.banking.senate.gov/hearings/exploring-bipartisan-legislative-frameworks-for-digital-assets">hearing</a> yesterday and, unsurprisingly, stablecoins took center stage.&nbsp;



Cynthia Lummis, who chairs the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/cynthia-lummis-gets-promoted">newly minted subcommittee</a>, said that stablecoin legislation is its top priority. A market structure bill, which we started to see movement on last session, will follow.&nbsp;



“We’re on the precipice of finally creating a bipartisan legislative framework for both stablecoins and <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/blockchain-association-consensus-position-on-market-structure-policy">market structure</a>,” she said.&nbsp;



Former CFTC Chair Timothy Massad, a witness during the hearing, advised lawmakers to zero in on stablecoins. Market structure legislation should be punted until fundamental questions are answered.&nbsp;



“Market structure regulation requires resolving some complex regulatory boundaries, including when is a digital asset a security, a commodity, both or neither?” he said. “There is a risk that we will significantly undermine the securities law framework that has served this country so well and has made our securities markets the envy of the world.”&nbsp;



The comments come as the industry continues to speculate on what a stablecoin bill <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/stablecoin-legislation-update">might look like</a>. Lummis’ GENIUS Act, introduced alongside Democratic Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, stipulates that “payment stablecoins” must come from registered issuers and have 1:1 backing from fiat currency “or other secure reserves.”&nbsp;



Generally speaking, the industry and both parties agree on these general terms, but the details are a bit trickier to iron out. Democrat Mark Warner yesterday said he’s seen “a whole bunch of bad stuff” and is advocating for more robust KYC requirements.&nbsp;



Should the GENIUS bill progress, we are likely to see another hearing with the full Senate Banking Committee.&nbsp;



But the timeline on if and when this may happen remains unknown.



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