What it would take for bitcoin to top all-time highs 

Forward Guidance’s Felix Jauvin noted that he’s bullish on both crypto and bitcoin on a “mean reversion basis”

article-image

3dMediSphere/Shutterstock and Adobe modified by Blockworks

share

This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions, subscribe.


I have some good news: The Forward Guidance guys — Felix Jauvin and Quinn Thompson — still feel pretty good about bitcoin. 

But I also have some bad news: Thompson’s not super keen on alts here. 

In this morning’s episode of Empire, we saw two worlds collide as Empire’s Jason Yanowitz and Santiago Santos spoke to Thompson and Jauvin about the macro outlook and, of course, crypto. 

Aside from Thompson’s astute point that he’s finding certain levels in crypto to be “interesting” but not necessarily worth throwing “a dart on the dartboard,” Jauvin’s points about bitcoin’s potential performance caught my attention. 

“ I’m bullish Bitcoin and crypto on a mean reversion basis, but for an explosion past all-time highs on — let’s focus on Bitcoin, ’cause I do think our asset class is getting old enough where we start piecing those apart separately,” he explained. To sum it up: Folks would have to bet against President Trump’s investment thesis if we want bitcoin to jump past all-time highs.

Basically, Jauvin argues that some of the things that aren’t great for macro — like the bond market and US dollar losing faith, and the Federal Reserve being forced to act — would be fantastic for bitcoin. 

“These are factors that bitcoin was born for,” he noted. 

It’s not stopping Jauvin from remaining bullish on things like stablecoins and the underlying technological advances pushing crypto forward, though. 

“ People want alts to leverage Bitcoin a lot. You almost might be better off if you look at the stats and run the ratios of risk leveraging your Bitcoin,” Thompson explained.


Get the news in your inbox. Explore Blockworks newsletters:

Tags

Decoding crypto and the markets. Daily, with Byron Gilliam.

Upcoming Events

Old Billingsgate

Mon - Wed, October 13 - 15, 2025

Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit (DAS) will feature conversations between the builders, allocators, and legislators who will shape the trajectory of the digital asset ecosystem in the US and abroad.

Industry City | Brooklyn, NY

TUES - THURS, JUNE 24 - 26, 2025

Permissionless IV serves as the definitive gathering for crypto’s technical founders, developers, and builders to come together and create the future.If you’re ready to shape the future of crypto, Permissionless IV is where it happens.

Brooklyn, NY

SUN - MON, JUN. 22 - 23, 2025

Blockworks and Cracked Labs are teaming up for the third installment of the Permissionless Hackathon, happening June 22–23, 2025 in Brooklyn, NY. This is a 36-hour IRL builder sprint where developers, designers, and creatives ship real projects solving real problems across […]

recent research

Research Report Templates.png

Research

Maple Finance has successfully navigated significant market challenges through its strategic pivot to secured lending (Maple v2) and the launch of its Syrup product. Syrup has become a primary growth driver, delivering sustainable, outperforming stablecoin yields and rapidly increasing TVL. The upcoming custody-first Bitcoin staking product (istBTC) presents another significant avenue for expansion. Crucially, Maple has achieved operational profitability, a key inflection point that, combined with a fully vested token and active buyback mechanism, strengthens its investment case. While valuation metrics suggest potential undervaluation relative to peers and growth, the primary forward-looking risk identified is the long-term sustainability of its current high-take-rate collateral staking revenue model.

article-image

In 2014, Microsoft virus scanners were detecting viruses in Bitcoin software

article-image

Ledn’s Mauricio Di Bartolomeo explained how this cycle’s been different for the lender

article-image

The shorts looking for funding range from charming animated series to gritty live-action dramas

article-image

Money, it turns out, is emergent, like consciousness

article-image

Bridge flows churn in both directions as risk appetite returns

article-image

Even with an uncertain outlook thanks to tariffs, Big Tech executives are still ramping up their AI investments