As BTC passes $66K, is ‘Uptober’ finally upon us?

Bitcoin has historically experienced strong gains in October, and this trend seems to be holding, with BTC surpassing $66,000 and ETH reaching a two-week high.

After eclipsing that level, bitcoin’s price had settled around $65,850 by 4 pm ET — up 4.8% from 24 hours prior. Ether was trading at about $2,620 at that time, a 6% gain from a day ago.

Seasonal trend analysis continues to point to the so-called “Uptober” narrative and strong fourth quarter performance despite the month’s “patchy” first couple of weeks, according to LMAX Group market strategist Joel Kruger.

“Bitcoin and crypto assets overall have actually held up quite well of late when considering a wave of broad-based demand for the US dollar in recent weeks on the back of a repricing of Fed expectations,” Kruger told Blockworks.

Bitcoin has pushed back toward its recent resistance level at roughly $66,550, he said, adding: “A break back above this level should open the door for a more direct retest of the record high from earlier this year.”

Despite bitcoin breaking its 2021 high earlier this year (above $73,000), ETH has yet to surpass the nearly $4,900 mark it hit three years ago.

There is “important resistance” in ETH’s price around $2,820, Kruger noted — a break above which would suggest crypto assets are set for a more significant run.

“This has already been a breakthrough year for the asset class given the friendlier regulatory climate, wider adoption and introduction of the bitcoin and ETH ETFs in the US,” he explained. “All of this suggests the market should be wanting to push for a big breakout in the weeks ahead and we will be keeping an eye on those already mentioned key levels in bitcoin and ETH for confirmation.”

The factors at play

China Finance Minister Lan Foan said Saturday that the government plans to ramp up debt issuance to revive economic activity — a potential positive for risk assets like BTC.

Newsletter

Subscribe to Blockworks Daily

“Whilst no details were provided on the exact size, strong commitments to ‘significantly increase’ debt to support the economy boosted local equity markets,” Wintermute OTC trader Jake Ostrovskis said in an email.

That came after the chief executive of the world’s largest asset manager — BlackRock’s Larry Fink — said Friday that “the utilization of digital assets [is] going to become more and more of a reality worldwide.”

BlackRock, with more than $11 trillion assets under management, has waded into the crypto segment via its launch of spot bitcoin and ether ETFs this year.

“If we can create more acceptability, more transparency, more analytics related to these assets, then it will be expanded,” Fink said of the crypto asset class during an earnings call last week.

The CEO also questioned how the US could look to digitize the dollar, noting “all of that is going to be under discussion.”

Fink added: “We believe the technology of these blockchains are going to become very additive, and then it will overlay AI and [have] better data analytics. The applicability and the broadening of these markets will occur.”

US spot bitcoin ETFs tallied $349 million of net inflows from Oct. 7 to Oct. 11, Farside Investors data shows.

Investor decisions are likely being driven more by the upcoming US elections than by monetary policy forecasts, according to CoinShares research head James Butterfill in a recent blog post.

“This trend is evident in the fact that stronger-than-expected economic data had little impact on stemming outflows, whereas the recent US vice presidential debate and a subsequent shift in polling towards the Republicans, perceived as more supportive of digital assets, led to an immediate boost in inflows and prices,” he added.

Further, the current lack of clarity around the US election outcome and global liquidity conditions are “preventing the market from establishing a clearer directional trend,” notes FalconX’s David Lawant.

“As uncertainty surrounding these factors diminishes, ETF flows may re-emerge as a more significant driver of price action,” Lawant explained in a research note.

A portion of expected selling pressure looks to be off the table for now given the one-year deadline extension for Mt. Gox repayments — from Oct. 31, 2024 to Oct. 31, 2025.

A belief in recent months has been that Mt. Gox creditors, who have long awaited the return of their funds, could opt to sell their crypto and drive prices down.

Price predictions

Dan Tapiero, founder of 1RoundTable Partners and 10T Holdings, said during a panel discussion last week that he expects BTC to hit between $150,000 and $180,000 in two years or so.

The upper end of that would be a 3x gain from the $60,000 level bitcoin has hovered around for a while now, he said, noting BTC’s similar rise in early 2021.

Fellow panelist Pantera Capital CEO Dan Morehead gave a more exact price and timeline, projecting BTC could hit $117,000 by August 2025. This, he said, is based on previous post-halving price patterns.

While there was plenty of talk at Permissionless about how much the election (now nearly three weeks away) will impact crypto’s trajectory one way or another, Tapiero seems to prefer looking at the grander picture.

The 10T founder said: “This move toward putting all value on a blockchain is bigger than one election.”

A modified version of this article first appeared in the daily Forward Guidance newsletter. Subscribe here so you don’t miss tomorrow’s edition.

Start your day with top crypto insights from David Canellis and Katherine Ross. Subscribe to the Empire newsletter.

Explore the growing intersection between crypto, macroeconomics, policy and finance with Ben Strack, Casey Wagner and Felix Jauvin. Subscribe to the Forward Guidance newsletter.

Get alpha directly in your inbox with the 0xResearch newsletter — market highlights, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, and more.

The Lightspeed newsletter is all things Solana, in your inbox, every day. Subscribe to daily Solana news from Jack Kubinec and Jeff Albus.