Polymarket bets trigger Nobel leak probe in Norway
Officials suspect potential insider trading after wagers on Nobel Peace Prize winner surged hours before announcement
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Norwegian authorities are investigating a potential information leak after online bets on this year’s Nobel Peace Prize winner spiked hours before the announcement, suggesting possible insider trading.
According to local reports, originally surfaced by Bloomberg, wagers favoring Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, who received the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize for her advocacy of democracy, surged on Polymarket shortly after midnight Norwegian time.
The Nobel Committee, which made its decision earlier in the week, said it is treating the matter as a serious breach of confidentiality.
Kristian Berg Harpviken, director of the Norwegian Nobel Institute, told reporters the spike “seems we have been prey to a criminal actor who wants to earn money on our information.”
As the Empire newsletter discussed earlier today, data from Polymarket show a user operating under the handle dirtycup placed about $70,000 in bets on Machado just hours before the announcement, netting roughly $30,000 in profit. Two additional accounts also bet heavily on Machado, with the three collectively earning around $90,000, according to Finansavisen.
The episode raises questions about transparency and oversight in online prediction markets, which let users trade on the outcomes of real-world events.
In 2022, Polymarket agreed to block US users after the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) ruled it was operating without registration. The Nobel Institute said it will conduct a full internal review to determine whether confidential information was accessed or shared unlawfully.
This is a developing story.
This article was generated with the assistance of AI and reviewed by editor Jeffrey Albus before publication.
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