Macauley Peterson

As the US election season heats up, expect to see volumes and total value locked (TVL) on the leading crypto-based prediction market, Polymarket, continue to rise.



Polymarket growth has gone parabolic this year, with TVL <a href="https://defillama.com/protocol/polymarket#information">doubling</a> over the last 30 days alone.



For most financial assets, derivatives markets are usually orders of magnitudes larger than the underlying spot markets. That’s not yet the case in crypto, much less onchain — the vast <a href="https://www.coingecko.com/en/exchanges/derivatives">majority</a> of futures trading is still done on centralized exchanges today.



But the fully onchain <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/derivatives">derivatives</a> platform D8X wants to marry the two growing crypto-native phenomenon: prediction markets and perpetual futures.



D8X co-founder Caspar Sauter sees the impending launch of leveraged prediction markets via orderbook-based futures as a natural evolution of the concept.



“As an economist, I love the fact that you can actually have a market to get predictions,” Sauter told Blockworks. “I love [<a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/polymarket">Polymarket</a>], my co-founder loves the product, and we love perps — so the natural next step was to think, ‘can we do leverage?’”



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/d8x-perp-dex-protocol-launches-on-arbitrum">D8X protocol brings novel futures exchange to Arbitrum</a>



It turns out to be a rather difficult task, akin to the problems with perp markets on very low-cap crypto assets colloquially known as “alts” or “shitcoins.” Except, it’s worse.



Prediction markets have intrinsic features, like a price bound from $0-1. Sudden, violent moves driven by external events make them unlike highly liquid perps markets such as bitcoin.



For instance, as regards Polymarket’s <a href="https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024">most liquid</a> offering — the US presidential election winner, with $391 million bet to date — a breaking news headline can potentially change the outcome in an instant.



Try to throw a perp on a spot market that’s highly illiquid and prone to explosive volatility and “you’ll get wrecked, like, from day one,” Sauter said, noting “the difficulties, from a financial engineering point of view, is probably what made people not do it yet.”



One option is to require full collateralization, with no leverage offered. But aside from lacking appeal to the more risk-tolerant speculators, it’s also not a capital efficient way for market participants, including market-makers, to hedge.



The specific financial engineering details to be used by D8X remain under wraps for now. Sauter notes that there are multiple other teams working on similar products, and he is curious to see how each will approach the challenge.



<a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/solana">Solana</a>-based derivatives exchange, Drift, <a href="https://x.com/DriftProtocol/status/1816851169354063972">announced</a> today it is also building prediction markets, for example.



D8X’s testnet deployment is expected to launch in a few weeks.



The platform also won’t stop with political predictions. “Having a prediction market is a fantastic idea,” Sauter said. “The system we have will be relatively flexible to offer more than that.”



But political prediction markets have <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/polymarket-july-all-time-high-trading-volumes">clearly struck a nerve</a>. “Adding leverage to it is kind of the cherry on top,” he said.



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Leveraged Polymarket bet derivatives are coming

David Canellis

Crypto isn’t just macro now. It’s political.



If you need any proof, look to the memecoin market. An unofficial Kamala Harris parody memecoin on Solana (KAMA) has exploded by 10,000% over the past three months.



That’s $0.0003216 to $0.0319. And okay — it’s easy for micro-cap memecoins to go ballistic. KAMA’s market cap was under $100,000 in its earliest days of trading in late March. Any relatively small amount of buying pressure was destined to drive its prices upward.



But KAMA has done so well that it’s only another 15% away from flipping doland tremp, another Solana parody coin launched one month earlier.&nbsp;



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/politifi-memecoins-us-election">PolitiFi parodies are half-way to the US election — but it’s uphill from here</a>



TREMP was worth as much as $150 million in the first week of June — now it’s $43 million to KAMA’s $38 million, at time of writing. Boden has meanwhile crashed from an April high of over $650 million to $11.1 million right now — a 98% collapse.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-flourish wp-block-embed-flourish"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<iframe class="wp-embedded-content" sandbox="allow-scripts" security="restricted" title="Interactive or visual content" src="https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/18847853/embed#?secret=sRCzMo7e22" data-secret="sRCzMo7e22" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" height="575" width="700"></iframe>
</div><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Tap the “log&#8221; view to better compare performance</figcaption></figure>



It’s not exactly that crypto really loves <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/kamala-harris">Kamala Harris</a>, which would lead traders to buy a silly <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/meme-coins">memecoin</a> in a show of solidarity of some sort.&nbsp;



It’s more likely that Kamala Harris running against <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/donald-trump">Donald Trump</a> made for one of the more attractive bets on the US election season so far.&nbsp;



That KAMA has rallied even harder in the few days since her presidential campaign started shows that certainty begets the pump.&nbsp;



The “brat energy” narrative pushed by parts of the <a href="https://usatoday.com/story/opinion/columnist/2024/07/24/kamala-harris-brat-summer-charli-xcx-gen-z-voters/74515681007/">media</a> wouldn’t be hurting, either.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-flourish wp-block-embed-flourish"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<iframe class="wp-embedded-content" sandbox="allow-scripts" security="restricted" title="Interactive or visual content" src="https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/18847306/embed#?secret=1hyD0Fz9GU" data-secret="1hyD0Fz9GU" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" height="575" width="700"></iframe>
</div><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">KAMA is in orange, in the bottom right</figcaption></figure>



In any case, KAMA is still far below the $300 million market cap of MAGA, the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/donald-trump-crypto-influencer-effect-on-maga">Trump-themed token launched on Ethereum</a> last year. KAMA would have to rally another 70% to match that, if MAGA were to trade sideways here on out.&nbsp;



Memecoins aside, Polygon-powered betting venue <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/polymarket">Polymarket</a> has turned out to be incredibly useful in gauging political sentiment — leading to <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/polymarket-july-all-time-high-trading-volumes">all-time high volumes</a>.



Polymarket betters, now with $370 million on the line, say Trump has 62% odds of winning in November to Harris’ 28.9%, with the latter trending upwards.



Before he dropped out, Biden was at 18% to Trump’s 70%, which may indicate that Harris has a much better shot than Biden, but not yet enough to take the cake.



Updated Jul. 26, 2024 at 5:25 am ET: Corrected Polymarket&#8217;s native blockchain.



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Brat energy: Kamala Harris memecoin goes 100x in 3 months as pump intensifies

Donovan Choy

As attention around the US election reaches a fever pitch, Polymarket is on track to be the ultimate victor regardless of who wins the presidency.



Just last week, Polymarket broke mainstream headlines as renowned prediction market analyst and writer Nate Silver joined the team as an advisor.



Now, the decentralized prediction market dapp on Polygon is hitting all-time highs in monthly trading volumes of $213 million, according to <a href="https://dune.com/queries/2683517/4462782">Dune</a>. To put that in perspective, June racked up monthly trading volumes of $111 million, per the same chart.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-us.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXey6MARHalPA1zD9qN8waUK3FnMo4Zd3XzJryQIGho4EPTkXKgwwnrLPMra_ay-H4uS8qouF58MZeEb7RmZwU0rKN5GtWxTifLXJ-8GWLXHBY11gzdB3f7O49JJLnBGkyngxD5JzY5HjsR3x-NiLXR83GAM?key=wxyQt3j7c7ZRN1KcFzh0QQ" alt=""/></figure>



Polymarket is quite possibly crypto’s most successful breakout use case of the year.&nbsp;



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/polymarket-web3-predictions-us-presidential-elections">Web3 Watch: Polymarket enters the spotlight amid turbulent week in politics</a>



In the category of politics alone, at least $653 million of bets are currently being placed across the top 10 betting markets. Issues range from the eventual winner of the 2024 presidential election to the probability of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, despite US participants only being able to view the prediction markets.



The platform is built on a public blockchain, ensuring that all transactions are transparent, unable to be censored and carried out quickly and accurately by smart contracts. That also makes it readily accessible to anyone — unlike traditional prediction market services, which are often restricted by financial regulations.



Yet, Polymarket is more than a vehicle of mere financial speculation. Prediction markets have long been <a href="https://vitalik.eth.limo/general/2021/02/18/election.html">touted</a> as a more reliable source of “truth” over traditional polling. The idea is simple: Bettors place their money on the outcomes they believe will happen, with the possibility of financial loss motivating them to be as accurate as possible. In turn, that drive for profit produces valuable foresight into future events. These predictions help others understand market trends and make informed decisions to mitigate risks and capitalize on emerging opportunities.



When <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/joe-biden">Biden</a> announced his official exit from the presidential race Sunday, the Polymarket odds for whether he would stay in the race adjusted noticeably faster to the real-time information than most mainstream media outlets.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">Polymarket: 11:56 AM <a href="https://t.co/aVOSzHhJAV">https://t.co/aVOSzHhJAV</a> <a href="https://t.co/0HwmP7ul3M">pic.twitter.com/0HwmP7ul3M</a>&mdash; Polymarket (@Polymarket) <a href="https://twitter.com/Polymarket/status/1815102945291276676?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 21, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



In a community note for the above post, X users clarified that <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/polymarket">Polymarket</a> odds on the aforementioned market still managed to beat most news wires by a few minutes, though not by hours as it originally suggested.



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/joe-biden-re-election-decision-potential-bitcoin-effects">How Biden ending his re-election campaign could impact bitcoin</a>



However, regulatory approval for Web3-based prediction markets remains highly uncertain in the US. Back in March, US Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chair Rostin Behnam <a href="https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2024/03/12/us-cftcs-behnam-says-agency-writing-new-policy-on-prediction-markets/">publicly stated</a> that the agency is still in the process of amending rules around prediction markets to “ensure a level playing field.” In 2022, the CFTC <a href="https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8478-22#:~:text=The%20order%20requires%20that%20Polymarket,the%20CEA%20and%20CFTC%20regulations%2C">fined</a> Polymarket $1.4 million.



Over the past seven days, data from Google Trends has shown that search volumes for Polymarket have been consistently inching higher. In fact, they even surpassed searches relating to the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/on-the-margin-newsletter-ether-etf-timeline">expected launch of ether ETFs</a>.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-us.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXe5Vz5YhiCxf_N8Ro6v-3sP9koPYnB9FJk30qbAFywMlzW0ddxthKul0GwBWATDscycungxwSRLFwT2Z3zzz19Xv8rOwBPGgjbdxUElqZxS-2orz9axnpi2ZmL3oh1Z8DI29Pz5MCjoT9QtZEVcLaQMYzE?key=wxyQt3j7c7ZRN1KcFzh0QQ" alt=""/></figure>



Launched in 2020, Polymarket has raised a total of $70 million in funding so far. Most recently, the company <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/polymarket-funding-backed-by-vitalik-buterin">announced a $45 million Series B</a> round in May from investors including Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund and Vitalik Buterin.



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Polymarket hits new all-time high in July trading volumes: Dune

Jack Kubinec

This week was a crazy one in US politics, which had all kinds of implications for crypto markets, it turns out.&nbsp;



Maybe the biggest winner amid all the turbulence is Polymarket, the prediction market that’s become the leading one in crypto following a $45 million Series B round <a href="https://x.com/shayne_coplan/status/1790404888347779503">led</a> by Founders Fund in May.&nbsp;



According to a Dune <a href="https://dune.com/rchen8/polymarket">dashboard</a>, Polymarket has seen its usage skyrocket in recent months to over $150 million in volume in July alone. This is up from roughly $6.6 million in December 2023.&nbsp;



Its presidential election winner market <a href="https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024?tid=1721412687917">has</a> nearly $300 million worth of bets with more than three months to go before the election.&nbsp;



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/biden-presidential-debate-impacts-polymarket-odds">Biden debate performance shakes up Polymarket odds</a>



Crypto news outlets have frequently cited prediction markets like <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/polymarket">Polymarket</a> in the past for things like political outcomes, sometimes perhaps a bit hastily given the lack of liquidity on the platforms. Now prediction markets, led by Polymarket, are gaining a place as a relevant source for truth-seeking.



Polymarket odds are <a href="https://www.wsj.com/finance/meet-the-traders-making-money-off-the-trump-shooting-and-bidens-stumbles-1332ec3e?mod=Searchresults_pos1&amp;page=1">increasingly</a> being <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-07-17/five-things-you-need-to-know-to-start-your-day-americas">cited</a> in mainstream <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/joe-bidens-chances-winning-election-collapse-now-fourth-favorite-1927637">media</a>. Then this week, the prediction market <a href="https://x.com/sarafischer/status/1813248353590706462">hired</a> pop statistician Nate Silver, popular for his election forecasting exploits.&nbsp;



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/empire-newsletter-trump-presidential-ticket">Trump and his &#8216;extremely bullish&#8217; presidential ticket</a>



Notably, Polymarket isn’t the only crypto outfit cashing in on the intrigue of US politics. There are, of course, <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/politifi-memecoins-us-election">the memecoins</a>. And the crypto exchange Deribit <a href="https://x.com/DeribitExchange/status/1813228883409273046">introduced</a> a call option for Nov. 8, so investors can bet on the price of crypto assets following the US elections.&nbsp;



Polymarket feeds on a popular outlook in crypto that markets can create more efficient truth-seeking. Vitalik Buterin has written <a href="https://vitalik.eth.limo/general/2024/01/30/cryptoai.html">tangentially</a> on the subject, and MetaDAO has made waves for <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/metadao-is-making-markets-into-its-government">markets-based governance</a>.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">TON tries capitalizing on recent growth</h2>



TON, the Telegram-related blockchain that’s gotten a boost from the popularity of tap-to-earn games within the messaging app, is looking to capitalize on the hype.



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/telegram-tap-to-earn-gaming-trend">Telegram tap-to-earn is the new crypto gaming trend</a>



The blockchain announced it would be <a href="https://x.com/ton_blockchain/status/1813603876622475440">building</a> a bitcoin bridge into and out of the network. Then, TON-related “venture builder” TOP <a href="https://x.com/topdotco/status/1812805175075111057">announced</a> an investment in the Telegram “game arcade,” Akedo.&nbsp;



Crypto game developer Delabs also released a Telegram game, <a href="https://x.com/GIGACHADBAT/status/1810242753324077244">called</a> GIGA CHAD BAT.



TON’s total value locked (TVL) has swelled to over $750 million, making it the eleventh-largest blockchain by that metric, <a href="https://defillama.com/chains">according</a> to DeFiLlama.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">One interesting stat:</h2>



<ul>
<li>Blur still reigns supreme in NFT marketplace volume, accounting for 63% of the total in the past week, <a href="https://dune.com/hildobby/ethereum-nfts">according</a> to a hildobby Dune dashboard. But OpenSea wins on the number of trades, seeing 45.9% to Blur’s 39.6%.</li>
</ul>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Also of note:</h2>



<ul>
<li>Fileverse <a href="https://x.com/Filecoin/status/1812907980972826826">unveiled</a> a decentralized Google Docs competitor, dDocs. </li>



<li>Travel company Trip.com <a href="https://x.com/TrekkiNFT/status/1813142415588671645">terminated</a> its Trekki NFT project.</li>



<li>Moonshot <a href="https://x.com/usemoonshot/status/1813967137687663025">debuted</a>, allowing users to buy and sell <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/meme-coins">memecoins</a> with Apple Pay.</li>
</ul>



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Web3 Watch: Polymarket enters the spotlight amid turbulent week in politics

Here’s a fun thought experiment. After watching last night’s debate, how much more (or less) likely do you think it is that President Biden drops out of the race?



Turns out there’s a Polymarket for that.



Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market platform operating on the Polygon PoS blockchain, where users can bet on various events by buying and selling shares of different outcomes. The price of each share represents the probability of the event occurring, and users profit if they accurately predict the outcome. When the event concludes, the shares corresponding to the actual outcome are paid out at $1 each, while all other shares become worthless.



The <a href="https://polymarket.com/event/will-biden-drop-out-of-presidential-race">market</a> for “Biden drops out of presidential race?” currently has $7.4 million committed, with 33% favoring “Yes.” That’s up from 19% just a day ago, illustrating what speculators — putting up real money — currently think about the state of the race.



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/polymarket-funding-backed-by-vitalik-buterin">Polymarket gets backing from Vitalik Buterin, Founders Fund in $70M raise</a>



The Yes camp was briefly as high as 47% earlier in the day. That spike has subsided, but not by much, even as Biden’s advisors were <a href="https://x.com/kaylatausche/status/1806675665845903645">quoted</a> saying he fully intends to stay in the race and debate Trump again in September. 



As of recent polling data, a hypothetical two-way race between Vice President Kamala Harris and Trump shows the former president with about a six point lead nationally.



Yet, Polymarket’s overall <a href="https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024">odds</a> for Harris being elected now stands at just 4%.



There’s an apparent disconnect here.



Only once in American history has the presumed Democratic presidential nominee, following the primary contests, been replaced. That was in 1968, when Senator Robert F. Kennedy was assassinated after winning the California primary.



Vice President Hubert H. Humphrey, who had not actively competed in the primary elections, became the Democratic nominee.



With the 2024 primaries over, the process of selecting a new nominee in the run-up to the August Democratic National Convention would likely involve significant party negotiations and strategic considerations. But Vice President Harris would have to be considered a strong contender, should President Biden release his delegates.



Given the Polymarket odds and polling statistics, the probability of an eventual President Harris should logically be quite a bit higher.



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/memecoin-elections-biden-vs-trump">If elections were settled with memecoins, Biden would win by a landslide</a>



Polymarket odds tend to skew in favor of <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/donald-trump">Trump</a> (presumably due to his <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/on-the-margin-newsletter-trump-sec-and-solana-etp">pro-crypto politics</a>) compared to national polling, but his current 64% chance on the platform is an outlier.



Rasmussen Reports, which is known to have a historical tendency to skew slightly more Republican compared to other polling organizations, shows Trump leading Biden by nine percentage points, with 49% support for Trump and 40% for Biden.​



Although it’s likely many of these markets are inefficient, the main presidential election market has attracted $193 million in bets, which is certainly nothing to cough at.



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Biden debate performance shakes up Polymarket odds

Jeff Albus

Today, enjoy the Lightspeed newsletter on Blockworks.co. Tomorrow, get the news delivered directly to your inbox. <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/lightspeed">Subscribe to the Lightspeed newsletter</a>.



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



Howdy! 



I had a whole intro ready to go about Taco Bell, but then news broke that 21Shares filed for a solana spot ETF, so I would be remiss not to touch on that.



From my initial read-through, the filing is very similar to the VanEck spot ETF filing <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/lightspeed-newsletter-spot-solana-etf-filing">we covered yesterday</a>, and many of the same potential questions are likely to apply.



Check back Monday for that promised Taco Bell intro.



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">US presidential debate sends candidate coins tumbling</h2>



One X poster <a href="https://x.com/EasyEatsBodega/status/1806396409111048427">quipped</a> that last night’s televised US presidential debate was going to be the Super Bowl for memecoins.&nbsp;



In this particular Super Bowl, both teams appear to have lost: BODEN and TREMP, the candidate-themed memecoins with Microsoft Paint-level artwork, both entered nosedives immediately after the debate began at 9 pm, according to CoinGecko. Other Trump-themed tokens like MAGA and TRUMP saw similar price action.



If you’re going to tell a story from this, it’s perhaps that market participants weren’t thrilled with either candidate’s performance, though things went worse for President Joe Biden — who is facing ongoing <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/27/us/politics/biden-debate-democrats.html">calls</a> to exit the race post-debate; his memecoin fell more dramatically than Donald Trump’s (on this last point, my condolences, Mr. President).&nbsp;



Nigel Eccles, CEO of BetHog and co-founder of FanDuel, told me he suspects BODEN’s price fell so dramatically because if Biden drops out, “the meme dies” too.&nbsp;



Pump.fun shows a race to capture the next meme if Biden were to exit the race: Potential replacements like Vice President Kamala Harris and California Governor Gavin Newsom have seen several memecoins spring up with their likeness in recent days.



But the most lucrative emotion last night may have been disappointment. The only debate-themed memecoin to make it to Moonshot’s “finalized” section was “CNNSUCKS.”



“CNN is hosting the worst presidential debate in history. LET&#8217;S PUMP THIS UP!,” the token’s description read.&nbsp;



(It’s also worth noting that crypto garnered nary a mention in the debate despite the Trump campaign’s recent overtures to the industry. You could imagine TREMP seeing much more favorable price action had Trump talked about <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/on-the-margin-newsletter-trump-bitcoin-mining-meeting">boosting US-based bitcoin mining</a>, for instance.)



It’s a fool’s errand to make too much of memecoins, but trading these tokens speaks to a larger belief among some in crypto that Web3 markets are a fairer and more efficient truth-seeking tool than things like voting or polls. <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/metadao-is-making-markets-into-its-government">Futarchy is one example</a>. Polymarket is another.



But wherever you go there you are, as they say, and it turns out that human complexity plays into these markets as well.



Polymarket bettors plowed more than $1 million into whether Barron Trump was <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/donald-trump-djt-token-solana">involved with the DJT memecoin</a>. UMA, Polymarket’s oracle system for resolving markets, <a href="https://x.com/0xKeef/status/1806001297365331969">settled</a> on the answer that Barron Trump was not involved with the token.&nbsp;



Another prediction platform, SX Bet, <a href="https://x.com/SX_Bet/status/1806038889511170346">put</a> up a market for whether Polymarket would refund bettors who voted “yes.”&nbsp;



Despite UMA’s <a href="https://x.com/UMAprotocol/status/1805378053536891330">pledge</a> to resolve the contentious vote “onchain in a trustless, decentralized manner,” Polymarket <a href="https://x.com/Polymarket/status/1806479362377814378">said</a> yesterday on social media that its oracle was wrong, Barron’s involvement was “conclusive,” and it would refund the market’s “yes” voters&nbsp;



As the presidential election draws closer, there’s bound to be more silliness in this realm of so-called PolitiFi. Perhaps be advised before taking any of it too seriously.



— Jack Kubinec



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Zero In </h2>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">27% and 17%</h3>



That’s roughly how much BODEN and TREMP fell in the hour and a half the two candidates spent debating last night.&nbsp;



Post-debate reviews seem to have been kinder to TREMP though, as the asset retraced slightly overnight, while BODEN continued to decline.&nbsp;



BODEN is now trading at its lowest point since just after its CoinGecko price listing began in early March. TREMP has also fallen from recent highs, but not quite so dramatically.



— Jack Kubinec



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The Pulse</h2>



If there&#8217;s one thing that seems to bring crypto users together, it&#8217;s dogs.



On Tuesday, X user @CannaCrypto420 <a href="https://x.com/CannaCrypto420/status/1805263909898895508">shared</a> a heartfelt post about how tokens he had claimed during the Jupiter Exchange airdrop had helped to save his service dog&#8217;s life. After a drunk driver hit his dog, Kilo, he used the funds he received in February to cover the emergency care and surgery costs. As of the most recent update, Kilo <a href="https://x.com/CannaCrypto420/status/1806543580942553245">appeared</a> to be doing well with his recovery, with his owner stating “I can tell the therapy is helping.”



The story seems to have resonated, with <a href="https://x.com/TommyEgan357/status/1805595364738646173">many</a> <a href="https://x.com/_cryptoTomNook/status/1805609822533890366">users</a> <a href="https://x.com/FunkyZ00/status/1805572933596676215">rallying</a> to share photos of their own dogs and to offer support. Some asked for his Solana address, ostensibly intending to send additional tokens to help with ongoing expenses.



User @wizzyknows <a href="https://x.com/wizzyknows/status/1805594193630302591">posted</a>, &#8220;This is why crypto is amazing. Jupiter really helped so many people.&#8221; Follower @215NFTS <a href="https://x.com/215NFTS/status/1805460871918780798">commented</a>, &#8220;Airdrop well spent!! A no brainer… I would empty my crypto bag and my bank account for my dogs… you&#8217;re a good man.&#8221; Meanwhile, @vpiphany <a href="https://x.com/vpiphany/status/1805481702296289773">noted</a>, &#8220;Life-changing money looks different for everyone. I&#8217;m glad it allowed you to save your friend.&#8221;



Is it a cliché? Sure, but only because it&#8217;s true: Some things are simply more important than money.



— Jeffrey Albus



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">One Good DM</h2>



A message from Nigel Eccles, CEO of BetHog and co-founder of FanDuel:


<div class="wp-block-image">
<figure class="aligncenter"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-us.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXcq70AYqi6i3grkpM6N2AWMjPxX3z0k044cGTLgPyp1h0Uqhys5uEw5s7OdAtkG7BQcLS8t5ipHtb1d5zEMF4nedjZDHVCI6Q9kp94XIQ9aI0bF1I0316CqvRLdCqtdL8rKYkOuiPe0gpFJeBh7g6EZbRqG?key=_y-uqV8n2FF-9d8aUUYpUQ" alt=""/></figure></div>


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Lightspeed Newsletter: Candidate coins BODEN, TREMP slumped during the debate

They say crypto traders are mentally unstable degenerate gamblers. Nihilists profiteering from others’ misfortune in a sadistic zero-sum game, providing no value to society.



So, when you hear that Polymarket, the blockchain prediction market (read: Web3 bookie), facilitated bets on whether the lost Titanic-hunting sub would be found before its oxygen runs out — it sounds about right.



Decentralized prediction markets (DPMs) like Polychain were some of the earliest smart contract use cases. Augur was the first on Ethereum, having crowdfunded about one year after the blockchain launched in 2014.



These platforms are a little bit like bitcoin ATMs when it comes to capturing mainstream attention. Physical cash machines are a widely understood concept, and so is betting on world events like the SuperBowl or US presidential races.



The idea of a seedy crypto gambling den easily translates. DPMs are pretty much that, except the den is the Ethereum blockchain and nobody runs that, so the cops can’t shut it down (or the morality police).



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">had a quick chat with <a href="https://twitter.com/Polymarket?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Polymarket</a> <a href="https://t.co/5cFcy6PQyE">pic.twitter.com/5cFcy6PQyE</a>&mdash; Michæl Becker (@michae1becker) <a href="https://twitter.com/michae1becker/status/1671675111181815809?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 22, 2023</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">When Twitter found out, some onlookers hated the idea.</figcaption></figure>



These platforms let users open prediction markets about any topic whatsoever, with no permission necessary. Smart contracts maintain the odds and settle bets, in cryptocurrency, with no dodgy middlemen and most importantly — no censorship.



Like all interesting software, Augur’s limits were quickly tested after its launch in 2018 — by very <a href="https://futurism.com/augur-assassination-marketplace-decentralized-blockchain">dramatic</a> assassination markets.&nbsp;



One minute, you’re cheekily betting that the queen would live until 2025. The next, you’ve essentially put out a hit on a royal family member — someone could take the opposite side, kill them, and win the bet. 



In that case, your bet would be the bounty (alongside anyone else’s that believed the queen would live). 



Resourceful assassins could even, hypothetically, trawl prediction markets for celebrities with loads of cash and bet on their life expectancy with a mind to cut those lives short — and then take all the ETH. Donald Trump, Warren Buffett and Jeff Bezos have all had their own life/death prediction <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/tech/donald-trump-assassination-market-blockchain-augur-a8464516.html">markets</a> on Augur.



Augur has never inspired any real-life assassinations, but Polymarket’s Titanic sub market is a 2023 iteration of the same scenario, just on Polygon. Crypto edgelords betting on whether people would die.



Because these bets take place on apps such as Polymarket and Augur that serve as conduits for blockchain activity, censorship of betting terms is a very tricky subject.&nbsp;



These platforms are commonly known as “decentralized apps,” as their associated smart contracts exist on chain, but they still rely on centralized front-end apps often maintained by a company or software studio. Without these apps, users would need to <a href="https://docs.etherscan.io/tutorials/signing-raw-transactions">code</a> their own so-called “raw” transactions to be added to the blockchain.&nbsp;



But while the apps themselves are censorable — Polymarket developers really could figure out ways to censor its app for any input involving “death,” or “die” or “live,” just like Augur could’ve done — those efforts would surely go to waste due to the stubborn ingenuity of the internet.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">Not to mention the fact that any market that concerns human activity is also an assassination market. &quot;Will Nic go to the grocery store tomorrow&quot; expresses the joint probability of me 1) going to the store and 2) my state of being alive&mdash; nic 🌠 carter (@nic__carter) <a href="https://twitter.com/nic__carter/status/929890186498052102?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 13, 2017</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">As Nic Carter pointed out in 2017, any human activity can be an assassination market — technically</figcaption></figure>



And you can also always code prediction markets <a href="https://medium.com/coinmonks/building-a-prediction-market-on-ethereum-with-solidity-a-use-case-study-bcf3ea6df47f">yourself</a>, bypassing the app altogether. Once the associated smart contracts deploy to Ethereum, they can’t be censored (unless the chain was rolled back, however unlikely it may be).



Rather than opine on the morality of such betting activities — especially as <a href="https://twitter.com/nic__carter/status/929885120248422400/photo/1">one alternative</a> is to codify moral absolutism on the blockchain, a whole other can of worms — it’s better to stress that absurd prediction markets like these are features, not bugs, of a decentralized Web3.&nbsp;



At risk of “free speech” cliches, it’s a waste of time to fixate on all the deplorable ways decentralized tech can be used, especially for those even remotely interested in supporting the concept of permissionless systems. If you can censor prediction markets, you can censor the money, rendering this whole crazy endeavor entirely moot.



The Polymarket backlash shows a demand for censorship at the app level which almost completely nullifies the promise and benefits of these protocols.&nbsp;



Censoring apps of any kind — be they gambling, social media or Ponzi game — for activity we don’t like is a very Web2 solution to a Web3 &#8220;problem&#8221; that can&#8217;t be solved.



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>


<div class="wp-block-post-author-biography">David is an Editor based in the Netherlands focused on data-driven journalism. Previously, he wrote for TheNextWeb&#8217;s crypto vertical before launching Protos in 2021. He&#8217;s a reformed hardline Bitcoiner passionate about permissionless and decentralized networks. Contact David at david@blockworks.co</div>


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Gambling on the Titanic sub sucks, but leave moral outrage in Web2

Casey Wagner

<div id="highlights-block_61d82bef7f312" class="highlights">
 <ul>
 <li>US regulatory organizations have promised to take a closer look at the digital asset industry, and they are starting now</li>
 <li>Cryptocurrency companies prep for greater scrutiny with expanded legal and compliance teams</li>
 </ul>
 
</div>



As most cryptocurrencies kick off the new year in the red, there is another cloud looming over the industry: harsher regulation.&nbsp;



US policymakers sent signals in the final months of 2021 that greater oversight of the emerging asset class is imminent. Congressional hearings on <a href="https://cms.blockworks.co/senators-cant-agree-on-path-for-stablecoin-regulation-during-hearing/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">stablecoins</a> and the <a href="https://cms.blockworks.co/crypto-industry-will-move-offshore-if-congress-doesnt-act-executives-warn/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">future of finance</a>, coupled with less-than-savory comments from <a href="https://cms.blockworks.co/gensler-says-centralized-regulation-is-path-for-crypto/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">regulatory leaders</a> and <a href="https://cms.blockworks.co/fed-gov-waller-most-crypto-has-zero-value-and-is-not-a-threat/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">central bank officials</a>, has painted an uncertain future for the digital asset industry.&nbsp;



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">‘Decentralized’ means nothing to regulators&nbsp;</h3>



If the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)’s <a href="https://cms.blockworks.co/cftc-fines-crypto-betting-service-polymarket-1-4-million-orders-shutdown/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">cease and desist order and fine</a> against Polymarket, the popular cryptocurrency betting platform, is any indication, policymakers are looking to rein in decentralized finance platforms.&nbsp;



<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">“I think it&#8217;s a clear signal that the CFTC, and US regulators more broadly, really aren&#8217;t going to tolerate a situation where DeFi markets and platforms allow activity to occur outside of the regulated sector,” said David Carlisle, head of policy and regulatory affairs at Elliptic.&nbsp;</blockquote>



The actions taken against Polymarket, which became public on Monday, the first business day of 2022, are only foreshadowing what is to come, Carlisle said. The regulatory crackdown challenges the fundamental principle of decentralization in the digital asset space.



“Despite the fact that this is a platform that uses smart contracts and claims to be decentralized, there are still people behind this platform, operating it, marketing it, enabling people to trade and access the market,” Carlisle said. “Despite the fact that the underlying technology is effectively decentralized.”&nbsp;



Regulators are indifferent to the fact that some platforms claim to be decentralized, Carlisle said, and if there is someone that can be held accountable, that is what is going to happen.&nbsp;



The CFTC noted in its statement that Polymarket was cooperative with investigators. The platform agreed to shut down the three markets in violation of compliance laws. Working with regulators is going to be an essential part of advancing the industry, Carlisle said.&nbsp;



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Stablecoin regulation&nbsp;</h3>



From Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments to the Congressional hearing, US officials took a closer look at stablecoins in 2021. It is a trend likely to continue into 2022, especially given the recent public policy agenda, experts predict.&nbsp;



“If the Fed really wants to get a central bank digital currency out there in the short term, like a digital dollar, for example, then they&#8217;ll be focusing more on stablecoins because they want to understand how well their regulatory regime would work,” said Michael Fasanello, director of training and regulatory affairs at the Blockchain Intelligence Group.&nbsp;&nbsp;



Powell said in July 2021 that creation of a CBDC may help curb demand for stablecoins such as Tether (USDT) and US Dollar Coin (USDC), which he said may pose a threat to consumers.&nbsp;



Regardless of whether a CBDC will come in 2022 (Powell has hinted that <a href="https://cms.blockworks.co/powell-us-does-not-have-to-be-first-with-a-cbdc/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">it may be a long way off</a>), stablecoins do not exist outside regulatory bounds.&nbsp;



“Stablecoins are like money market funds, they’re like bank deposits, but they’re, to some extent, outside the regulatory perimeter and it’s appropriate that they be regulated,” Powell said in September 2021 during testimony before the House Financial Services Committee. “Same activity, same regulation.”&nbsp;



US Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Gary Gensler agrees. He has referred to stablecoins, which are designed to trade and fluctuate like US dollars, as “<a href="https://cms.blockworks.co/secs-gensler-stablecoins-are-poker-chips/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">poker chips</a>.”&nbsp;



Stablecoins present a new challenge to regulators because they do not fit neatly within the existing regulatory structure and process as traditional financial products, Fasanello said.



“With stablecoins, we really haven&#8217;t had that sort of typology or methodology, so arguably the Fed might spend a little bit more time with that, at least at the forefront,” he said.&nbsp;



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Where we stand&nbsp;</h3>



One of the key roadblocks to greater regulatory clarity around the digital asset space is the question of jurisdiction, policymakers and industry members agree.



<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">“You&#8217;re seeing the CFTC, the SEC, the Fed, all of these different groups that want to be the tip of the spear for regulation,” Fasanello said. “I think that really what they should be looking for is a whole-government approach.”&nbsp;</blockquote>



While industry members anticipate further CFTC actions, other government organizations already have crypto on the agenda for 2022. The SEC’s <a href="https://cms.blockworks.co/one-year-after-sec-lawsuit-ripple-ceo-says-2021-was-their-best-year-yet/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">battle with Ripple</a> over XRP continues into the new year, and Congress has recently announced an additional hearing to take place as soon as January 2022 to discuss the environmental impact of cryptocurrency mining.&nbsp;



More and more companies in the cryptocurrency space are expanding their teams to include legal experts and compliance officers, including <a href="https://cms.blockworks.co/coinbase-hires-morgan-stanley-lawyer-to-head-enterprise-compliance/">Coi</a><a href="https://cms.blockworks.co/coinbase-hires-morgan-stanley-lawyer-to-head-enterprise-compliance/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">n</a><a href="https://cms.blockworks.co/coinbase-hires-morgan-stanley-lawyer-to-head-enterprise-compliance/">base</a> and <a href="https://cms.blockworks.co/binance-us-new-risk-officer-crypto-industry-must-educate-regulators/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Binance.US</a>. Others have released public statements outlining intentions and visions for how the regulatory landscape should look, including <a href="https://blog.ftx.com/policy/ftx_key_principles/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">FTX</a> and <a href="https://cms.blockworks.co/ftx-follows-coinbase-ripple-in-releasing-regulatory-framework/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Ripple</a>.&nbsp;



Cryptocurrency is too broad to fit under one organization’s umbrella, Fasanello said. Regulators must look at crypto as a security, commodity, disruptive technology and currency, while also considering consumer protection, anti-money laundering and anti-terrorism efforts.&nbsp; “I&#8217;d expect the CFTC and the SEC to be probably the most active US agencies that we&#8217;ll see,” said Carlisle. “I think we&#8217;ll see the US Treasury and also potentially state level organizations and regulators in the US start to dive deeper and deeper into this space and take a closer look at it, it is going to be a multi agency approach, ultimately.



<hr class="wp-block-separator">
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<hr class="wp-block-separator">

Crypto Companies Brace for Year of Regulation in 2022

<div id="highlights-block_b7f1bba4b8ae709c766dfaa60812af4c" class="highlights">
 <ul>
 <li>The CFTC filed a cease and desist order against popular crypto betting platform Polymarket</li>
 <li>The startup allowed users to bet on anything from election results to celebrity engagements to earn cryptocurrencies</li>
 </ul>
 
</div>



The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) took its first public action against decentralized finance (DeFi) companies of the year on Monday.&nbsp;



The regulator fined cryptocurrency betting platform Blockratize Inc., which operates under the name Polymarket, $1.4 million. The CFTC has also ordered the New York-based company to wind down “all markets displayed on Polymarket.com that do not comply with the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA),” according to a <a href="https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8478-22" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">statement</a> from the CFTC.&nbsp;



Polymarket enables users to bet on current events, including politics and pop culture, using cryptocurrencies. Popular bets of the past year included whether or not Jennifer Lopez and Ben Affleck would get engaged or if the United States would reach 100,000 new daily coronavirus cases before Jan. 1, 2022.&nbsp;&nbsp;



Users select one of at least two options for the given scenario and place bets, which, under federal law, qualifies the markets as swaps. The CFTC reports that Polymarket has offered more than 900 different event markets since its inception in 2020. 



Polymarket failed to obtain a Designated Contract Market (DCM) and Swap Execution Facility (SEF) registration, both requirements under the CEA, the CFTC said.&nbsp;



“All derivatives markets must operate within the bounds of the law regardless of the technology used, and particularly including those in the so-called decentralized finance or ‘DeFi’ space,” acting director of enforcement, Vincent McGonagle, said in a statement. “Market participants should proactively engage with the CFTC to ensure that our markets remain robust, transparent, and afford customers the protection provided under the CEA and our regulations.”



Polymarket responded to the filing late Monday afternoon via Twitter.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">We’re pleased to confirm that we&#39;ve successfully agreed to a settlement with the CFTC, &amp; are excited to move forward &amp; focus on the future of Polymarket. As per the order, the 3 markets lasting past 1/14 that don&#39;t comply with the Act will be prematurely resolved. More soon 🔮&mdash; Polymarket (@Polymarket) <a href="https://twitter.com/Polymarket/status/1478132679510048773?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 3, 2022</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-10-23/crypto-venue-for-bets-on-trump-jlo-and-covid-faces-u-s-probe" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Reports</a> that the CFTC was investigating Polymarket first surfaced in October 2021. The company secured a $4 million seed funding round the same month. Polychain Capital was a lead investor.&nbsp;



Polymarket cooperated with the investigation, the CFTC report noted, which helped the company secure a lower fine. All Polymarket markets will end by Jan. 14, 2022, and refunds will be available to users by Jan 24.



Updated July 23, 2024 at 3:49 pm ET: A previous version of this article stated that Polymarket was founded in 2018, whereas it was founded in 2020. 



Updated January 3, 2022, at 10:09 pm ET to add additional information and a statement from Polymarket.



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-css-opacity"/>



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