Retail could undergo ‘real adoption’ this cycle: WisdomTree

This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions, subscribe.

---

We’re three weeks out from Christmas.

As David pointed out in today’s Empire newsletter, we’re in an interesting spot, which leads WisdomTree’s Jason Guthrie to wonder if there’s enough momentum to last till the end of the year. 

I personally don’t have a crystal ball, so that’s a little hard to work out as it stands. If you were on an early Thanksgiving break last week, then you may have missed the price levels to watch with bitcoin, but that’s about as far as we can go in trying to predict what’s next. 

So instead, what about how we’re looking at this moment?

“The space, to me right now, does feel reasonably healthy,” Guthrie said. 

“​​There aren’t a lot of individual projects or companies that seem to be bolstering or driving this in a very meaningful way. And I think that’s very distinctly different from previous cycles where there was a hyped-up innovation, whether it was NFTs or memecoins or something like that, or one big firm like FTX that really seemed to be kind of dominating the narrative … that feels a little shakier than what we’ve got now, which just seemed like a more diversified groundswell, if you like, through the space more generally. People are building innovative things we don’t have … it seems much more use case focused,” he added. 

Though, to be fair, at this point it does seem like memecoins are one of the dominant narratives. How long that lasts is anyone’s game, especially given they’re seen as a pathway in for retail. 

Guthrie’s not sure we’re going to see the same level of retail excitement this cycle as we saw last go around, leading him to think that we might see a bit more of a “muted run. ” That’s not necessarily “an unhealthy thing for the space in any way,” he said.

Instead, this might be the cycle where we see more real adoption, rather than a small crowd of retail with high-net worths putting large portions of that into crypto. 

“I would rather that that demand was coming from tens of millions of people doing something that makes sense for them, rather than a handful of people putting in a very large portion of their portfolio. And I think retail coming back in the future might look much more like a general risk-on sentiment, as opposed to this really loud hype from a relatively small community,” Guthrie said.

Perhaps there’s space for both the retail crowd that wants to dabble in memecoins, and those adding crypto to portfolios as a risk-on investment.

---

Get the news in your inbox. Explore Blockworks newsletters:

• The Breakdown: Decoding crypto and the markets. Daily.
• 0xResearch: Alpha in your inbox. Think like an analyst.
• Empire: Crypto news and analysis to start your day.
• Forward Guidance: The intersection of crypto, macro and policy.
• The Drop: Apps, games, memes and more.
• Lightspeed: All things Solana.
• Supply Shock: Bitcoin, bitcoin, bitcoin.