Why top signals could be less obvious this cycle

Back in 2021, there were really only two memecoins and both hit enormous peaks along with BTC

article-image

Artwork by Crystal Le

share


This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions, subscribe.


North Korean hackers. Accidentally throwing out your seed phrase. The IRS, DOJ and SEC. Being forced to interact with customer service departments at exchanges.

As far as scary monsters in crypto go, those would be far up the list. Still, none scarier than the notion that the bull market has peaked without securing generational wealth.

All that has everyone searching for top signals. Hints that the fun is over for another four years.

Trump’s stupidly successful memecoin launch is a decent candidate. Especially so paired with bitcoin’s new all-time high around his inauguration. Was that the top?

It would be easy to agree if crypto was like it was in 2021. Back then, in the midst of the monster bull run, there were really only two memecoins — dogecoin and shiba inu — and both hit enormous peaks along with bitcoin.

Except, DOGE and SHIB didn’t peak at the same time. Looking back, the rotation between them is totally obvious.

DOGE, in blue, exploded from about $1 billion market cap to over $80 billion between January and May 2021, alongside bitcoin’s own rally from $20,000 to over $64,000.

It then drained as bitcoin corrected but never really came back at size. SHIB (in purple) shined instead, rallying from $3 billion market cap to almost $40 billion between September and the end of October — matching bitcoin’s rally almost exactly.

So, in retrospect, the Great Dog Coin Rotation was probably the most obvious top signal for the last cycle.

This time around, it’s much harder to tell.

The most simple read is that memecoins in 2021 topped out alongside bitcoin. So maybe a major rally in memecoins might mark the end in 2025. 

Except, there are just so many new launches — FARTCOIN, GOAT, AI16Z, PENGU, SPX and now TRUMP — making it difficult to spot an actual top for memecoins overall. 

One peak and correction feeds into another and into another. The DOGE-SHIB rotation on steroids. 

To bears, that might sound like a risky game of musical chairs. But to the bulls, it probably sounds just right.


Get the news in your inbox. Explore Blockworks newsletters:

Tags

Decoding crypto and the markets. Daily, with Byron Gilliam.

Upcoming Events

Old Billingsgate

Mon - Wed, October 13 - 15, 2025

Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit (DAS) will feature conversations between the builders, allocators, and legislators who will shape the trajectory of the digital asset ecosystem in the US and abroad.

recent research

Research Report Templates.jpg

Research

Figure, founded by former SoFi CEO Mike Cagney, has emerged as a leader in onchain RWAs, with ~$17.5B publicly tokenized. The platform’s ecosystem volume is growing ~40% YoY as it expands beyond HELOCs into student loans, DSCR loans, unsecured loans, bankruptcy claims, and more. Operationally, Figure cuts average loan production cost by ~93% and compresses median funding time from ~42 days to ~10, creating a durable speed-and-cost advantage.

article-image

In bonds, stablecoins and billionaires, a reminder of what makes crypto special

article-image

21Shares exec says CPI and PPI data supports a Fed rate cut, with market leaning toward a 25bps decrease

article-image

The Ethereum co-founder suggested LINEA holders would be eligible for other airdrops in cryptic tweet

article-image

The layer-2’s biggest release yet brings benefits — but a post-upgrade outage caused a chain reorg

article-image

Crypto is shifting into risk-on mode — pump.fun dominates meme activity, while Lido leans on treasury maneuvers

article-image

If the president breaks the Fed, he’ll own the budget problems