Bitcoin’s history of bull market drawdowns

The most brutal drawdowns have historically happened at the tail end of bull runs

article-image

ImageFlow/Shutterstock modified by Blockworks

share


This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions, subscribe.


Bitcoin’s wild price swings have beaten us all into submission.

We naturally expect enormous corrections to crush hopes, dreams and wallet balances, even in the midst of monster bull runs. 

So, you’d be forgiven for expecting a sudden 50% collapse in the price of bitcoin on its way to six figures and beyond.

Is it warranted?

First, to be clear: bitcoin does have a habit of tanking by about 80% from bull run peak to bear market trough. It has happened every cycle going right back to its first major rally in 2011.

But this column isn’t about bear market drawdowns (here’s our previous analysis on the topic). Instead, it’s about the corrections that happen specifically during bull markets, like the one we’re in right now.

The charts below plot bitcoin’s price performance across six different timeframes, ranging from three days to three months, on a rolling basis, starting when the cycle starts (the trough) to an all-time high (the peak).

Each line shows a different timeframe — the dark purple line shows the percentage difference between each daily low and the open three days earlier, for instance. Green does the same but over three months at a time.

The dotted line at the bottom otherwise shows what a 50% drawdown would look like. As you can see, the bull run between August 2015 and December 2017 involved no drawdowns of that size.

During that market cycle, the largest was a 40% retracement over two weeks toward the end back in September 2017.

There were, however, three corrections of more than half during the following bull market between 2018 and 2021.

One of those was the epic covid market crash in March 2020 — which roughly coincided with a series of “Black Mondays” for the stock market. 

BTC dove by half or more across every timeframe except three months, which only hit about 47%. 

The other big drawdowns occurred in May and July 2021, when bitcoin dove from a then-all-time-high of over $60,000 to $30,000. It would then climb back to almost $69,000 over the next four months.

This time around has been much tamer, with the worst mid-bull correction coming in the first week of August. 

Bitcoin had fallen 30% across multiple timeframes, reaching a low of $49,200 from over $70,000 in June.

All this isn’t to say that bitcoin has lost its volatility. I would still expect a rocky ride.

What’s good to know, though, is that most brutal drawdowns have historically happened at the tail end of bull runs. 

So, the longer we go without one, the spookier it gets. All part of the fun.


Get the news in your inbox. Explore Blockworks newsletters:

Tags

Decoding crypto and the markets. Daily, with Byron Gilliam.

Upcoming Events

Javits Center North | 445 11th Ave

Tues - Thurs, March 24 - 26, 2026

Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit (DAS) will feature conversations between the builders, allocators, and legislators who will shape the trajectory of the digital asset ecosystem in the US and abroad.

recent research

Unlocked by Template.png

Research

The march toward an interoperable and onchain-by-default internet depends on reliable messaging and value transfer across heterogeneous domains. Crosschain protocols now process >$1.3T in combined annual transfer volume and secure tens of millions of user interactions, yet no single design dominates.

article-image

Stripe stablecoin unit aims to operate under a federal charter enabling regulated stablecoin issuance and custody services

by Blockworks /
article-image

Will TradFi make crypto better or create more problems than it solves?

article-image

Subtle decisions by risk curators saved Aave from significant turmoil

article-image

The new Rootstock Institutional unit aims to connect professional investors to Bitcoin-native yield and liquidity strategies anchored in BTC’s security layer

by Blockworks /
article-image

DOJ files record civil forfeiture against more than 127,000 BTC linked to scam activity

by Blockworks /
article-image

Framework Ventures leads Crown’s $8.1 million seed round to fund BRLV, a fully backed Brazilian real stablecoin with institutional yield features.

by Blockworks /