David Canellis

Bitcoin’s current rally comes as two bullish narratives converge: In less than eight weeks, the halving will cut new supply in half, meanwhile spot funds already gobble up coins faster than they’re mined.



Newly-found demand from spot ETFs aside, halvings are generally viewed as catalysts for tremendous growth for bitcoin’s price.&nbsp;



But over the past two cycles, it’s crypto, not bitcoin, which has benefitted the most. Starting from one year before each previous halving, bitcoin peaked at:



<ul>
<li>50,000% one year after the 2012 halving.</li>



<li>8,500% nearly one and a half years after the 2016 halving.</li>



<li>1,000% one and a half years after the 2020 halving.</li>
</ul>



(For the fractal-minded, interestingly bitcoin peaks are divided by between six and eight each cycle. If that repeats, the peak for bitcoin this time around would be less than 170% — with bitcoin already securing most of those gains.)



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-flourish wp-block-embed-flourish"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<iframe class="wp-embedded-content" sandbox="allow-scripts" security="restricted" title="Interactive or visual content" src="https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/16951672/embed#?secret=sZ1lf4ycqo" data-secret="sZ1lf4ycqo" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" height="575" width="700"></iframe>
</div><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">The line, bitcoin’s growth, gets flatter every cycle</figcaption></figure>



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-halving-btc-price-implications">How the halving could impact bitcoin’s price</a>



All this is to be expected considering how big bitcoin’s market value is already, beyond $1 trillion. It’s feasibly impossible for bitcoin’s price to multiply by 500 times in two years, as was the case in 2012 when its capitalization was under $200 million.



Bitcoin (<a href="https://blockworks.co/price/btc">BTC</a>) makes up about half of the entire crypto market right now, but there are tens of thousands of other cryptocurrencies out there, and on the whole they tend to hitch a ride <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-approaches-55k-ibit-etf">when bitcoin rallies hardest</a>.



In fact, everything that isn’t bitcoin stands to gain much more from bitcoin bull runs than bitcoin itself.&nbsp;



Crypto excluding bitcoin was altogether worth $64.9 million one year before the 2016 halving.&nbsp;



One year after the event, at the height of the 2017-2018 bull run, that figure had multiplied more than 6,000 times to $421 billion, largely due to the successes of XRP, Ethereum and Bitcoin Cash.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-flourish wp-block-embed-flourish"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<iframe class="wp-embedded-content" sandbox="allow-scripts" security="restricted" title="Interactive or visual content" src="https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/16952060/embed#?secret=KBjCAWd9Xl" data-secret="KBjCAWd9Xl" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" height="575" width="700"></iframe>
</div><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Crypto has grown far more than bitcoin after the past two halvings</figcaption></figure>



Similarly during crypto’s previous cycle, between 2019 and 2021, crypto outside of bitcoin was valued at $71.6 billion one year before the 2020 halving.&nbsp;



A year and a half later, when bitcoin was near record highs, all other crypto was worth $1.7 trillion — growth of more than 2,000% to bitcoin’s 1,000%.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Four year cycles aren’t exclusive to Bitcoin</h2>



Three halvings, it’s worth repeating, is far too small a sample size to derive any sort of meaningful analysis.&nbsp;



Such a small sample size means factors other than <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/bitcoin-halving">halvings</a> are just as likely to play a role in forming what seem to be bitcoin’s unstoppable four-year market cycles.&nbsp;



The global liquidity cycle, which tracks how much cash is sloshing around the global economy for one, correlates with bitcoin rallies to perhaps an even tighter degree than halvings.&nbsp;



As it turns out, global liquidity also runs on four year cycles.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-us.googleusercontent.com/qhropNETO04yfsODxfT3_CNIR2QVwbcFC6i2AbwvhYAS1bfKtThqNR7hI1FuFb4eS4lSsLTec8e2iLLUAYLFXF1SJxT-mbRRyKeGq16dIxRPWgHyESnyV98b2YLjjY9KHs2ITkOL7pxb2DW9SRPym44" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Notice the waves, which represent global liquidity, drastically move upwards as bitcoin bull runs have crescendoed — in 2013, 2017 and 2021 (<a href="https://capitalwars.substack.com/p/the-global-liquidity-cycle">source</a>)</figcaption></figure>



Proving waves of global liquidity caused bitcoin’s explosive growth is still practically impossible — same with halvings.



It’s likely a mixture of both: Supply decreases as global liquidity deepens to a point where it spills over into speculative asset classes like crypto, driving up demand.



Not counting one day last week when spot <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/etfs">ETFs</a> were net sellers, physically-backed bitcoin funds in the US have altogether bought almost 6,350 BTC ($362 million) per trading session, on average.



Bitcoin miners are on average finding 147 blocks per day and each comes with a 6.25 BTC ($356,600) reward, the network’s way of distributing fresh coins.&nbsp;



So, miners are pulling less than 920 BTC ($52.5 million) out of the blockchain per day. Bitcoin funds are buying up nearly six times that amount on behalf of shareholders, led by BlackRock, Fidelity and Ark-21Shares.



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-halving-miners-hashrate-offline">20% of bitcoin network hash rate could go offline after halving: Galaxy</a>



Many aspects of the bitcoin market outpace bitcoin supply. About 35,000 BTC ($2 billion) has <a href="https://cryptoquant.com/asset/btc/chart/exchange-flows/exchange-inflow-total?exchange=all_exchange&amp;window=DAY&amp;sma=14&amp;ema=0&amp;priceScale=log&amp;metricScale=linear&amp;chartStyle=column">flowed</a> into crypto exchanges every day this year on average, for one, indicating potential bitcoin sales up to 37 times more than is mined each day.&nbsp;



Even factoring in bitcoin’s latest price jump, if only a small percentage of the bitcoin miners sent to exchanges ends up sold, there’s hypothetically enough supply out there to meet demand without prices immediately going parabolic.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-flourish wp-block-embed-flourish"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<iframe class="wp-embedded-content" sandbox="allow-scripts" security="restricted" title="Interactive or visual content" src="https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/16929799/embed#?secret=zWvR8VyrEh" data-secret="zWvR8VyrEh" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" height="575" width="700"></iframe>
</div><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Bitcoin is tracking slightly ahead of the lead up to the last two halvings</figcaption></figure>



Still, with the halving around the corner — expected on April 19 or 20 — it’s easy to see how they’ve captured imaginations across the market. Crypto native firms like <a href="https://twitter.com/RasterlyRock/status/1734956139580936658">Bitwise</a>, <a href="https://blog.bitfinex.com/bitfinex-alpha/bitfinex-alpha-bitcoin-miners-are-pressuring-btc/">Bitfinex</a> and CoinShares have put out attempts at unpacking their mystique, as have finance players including <a href="https://news.bitcoin.com/jpmorgan-says-bitcoin-halving-and-ethereum-upgrade-are-largely-priced-in/">JPMorgan</a> and Standard Chartered.



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-halving-expected-on-4-20">Bitcoin halving expected to hit on 4/20</a>



On a tangible level, the bitcoin halving will radically overhaul the economics of bitcoin <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/mining">mining</a>, to the point CoinShares <a href="https://blog.coinshares.com/coinshares-mining-report-the-halving-and-its-impact-on-hash-rate-and-miners-cost-structures-8646835d88ac">expects</a> several major operators to struggle if bitcoin doesn’t stay above $40,000 (so far, so good).



Standard Chartered, known for its bombastic crypto price predictions in recent years, meanwhile maintains a <a href="https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2023/11/28/bitcoin-remains-on-track-for-100k-by-year-end-2024-standard-chartered/">call</a> for $100,000 per coin by the end of this year, in part due to how far the halving might skew supply and demand toward the latter.



It’s tempting to map bitcoin price action after previous halvings. After all, bitcoin’s biggest bull runs have peaked between a year and a year and a half after halvings. 



Why this time would be any different is anyone’s guess, apart from to <a href="https://russellinvestments.com/us/blog/past-performance-no-guarantee-future-results">prove</a> that “past performance does not guarantee future results.”



No matter what impact halvings have (or don’t have) on prices, looking back at the data shows bitcoin market cycles are dampening over time despite the massive capital injections every four years.



Updated Feb. 27, 2024 at 5:09 pm ET: Fixed denomination.



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Bitcoin halvings may be bullish — but returns have shrunk every cycle

Jack Kubinec

As the market heats up, crypto hiring appears to be coming along for the ride. Blockworks spoke with Dan Eskow, founder of Web3 talent agency Up Top, about what he’s seeing in the re-energized hiring market.



Keep reading for excerpts from Blockworks’ interview with Eskow, edited for brevity and clarity.



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



Blockworks: Obviously, the crypto job market got pretty bad post-FTX. When did you see that start to turn around?



Eskow: Right around Thanksgiving. End of November, early December is when we started lining up all these deals for January and really seeing the volume increase like crazy, and it&#8217;s timed pretty directly with all these fundraising announcements that are now coming out.



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/ftx-employees-enter-tight-market">Employees burned by FTX enter a tightening market</a>



Blockworks: What kinds of crypto jobs are you finding to be the most in-demand right now?



Eskow: I would say last cycle, clearly Solidity devs were the most in demand, and I would say now it&#8217;s pretty clear that it&#8217;s Rust because of so much action in Solana. Also, we&#8217;re seeing Rust used in other ecosystems outside of EVM and Solana. Rust seems to be a language that has a lot of translatable values, so like if you&#8217;re good in Rust, you can be good in Golang and therefore work in Cosmos or Berachain and these new layer-1s like Monad.



One thing that completely disappeared quickly during the last cycle is growth and partnerships, these roles that are kind of non-technical/undefined. I would say that last cycle they were like, “Alright, you&#8217;re either BD or you’re marketing, we&#8217;re not doing this growth partnerships thing,” and now that&#8217;s coming back a little bit.



As you&#8217;re seeing all these fundraising announcements come out and everything&#8217;s getting super competitive again in each particular category, the social media content roles are becoming more important to create narratives, so sometimes I&#8217;m seeing companies actually hire social media people before they even have a marketing department to do traditional marketing, just because they know how important it is to quickly create the narrative that you&#8217;re the leader in this space and in this niche.



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/farcaster-blockchain-onboarding">Farcaster is marrying social media and Web3 to onboard the masses</a>



Blockworks: Anything else notable you’re seeing?



Eskow: [In] the transition from bear market to bull market, one of the things that you notice is the inventory of talent is starting to look much different. In the bear market, there was a ton of top, top, top tier talent floating around, but they were indecisive as to where they wanted to go because the narratives driving the market were not as clear. Now they&#8217;re saying, “Okay, <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/citibank-explores-tokenization-wisdomtree">[real-world assets] are hot</a>. Let&#8217;s do it.” So my point is all of the A-players are sort of coming off the market now, and so I&#8217;m having to reset expectations with clients who we’ve been working with that have been spoiled with incredibly good resumes.



Blockworks: That’s fascinating. That’s a consequence of the bull market starting up that I wouldn’t expect.



Eskow: I can see the direction that we&#8217;re going, which is that these bankers and <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/web2">Web2</a> people are gonna have a spot again. It&#8217;s funny, I&#8217;m working with this guy just as a favor, who&#8217;s a frigging accountant in Web2, and wants to be a Solidity developer. He&#8217;s like, “Do you think if I take a coding class, get hired in some shitty company for six months for low money, that I can actually get a real job in like a year from that?”



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/web3-developers-on-the-rise">Electric Capital finds veteran Web3 devs are on the rise</a>



I said absolutely. Because the way this trend is going, the inventory of top developers is going down. And what I remember about the last peak of the bull cycle was that if you can find someone with six months of Solidity experience at any company really in crypto — didn&#8217;t have to be a brand name, and they maybe don&#8217;t even have to have a classic engineering background — those people will get hired.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Ex-Cowen crypto employees move to StoneX</h2>



The boutique investment firm Cowen shut down its crypto unit in May as the asset class slogged its way through a bear market. In the fall, five staff from the erstwhile effort found a new home at broker-dealer StoneX.



The group has populated the upper levels of their new firm. Eric Rose became head of digital asset execution, David Kroger became senior vice president and Kyrill Firshein became director of digital markets.&nbsp;



“We’ve made a ton of progress building the StoneX Digital execution services in the last few months and we’re just getting started,” Rose <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7164347212062269441/">wrote</a> in a LinkedIn post announcing the Cowen-to-StoneX hires.&nbsp;&nbsp;



StoneX is a large traditional financial services firm. The firm made its first <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/stonex-executes-first-bitcoin-swap-as-firm-looks-to-grow-crypto-dealings">dollar-denominated bitcoin swap</a> in mid-2022. It <a href="https://www.financemagnates.com/cryptocurrency/news/stonex-group-launches-subsidiary-stonex-digital-llc/">launched</a> a digital assets arm a few months later. Last year, StoneX began <a href="https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20230413005216/en/StoneX-Offers-Clients-Access-to-Coinbase-Derivatives-Exchange-Contracts-Cleared-by-Nodal-Clear">offering</a> clients access to Coinbase’s derivatives exchange.



TD Cowen, the new StoneX group’s former employer, <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/financial-firm-cowen-unveils-digital-assets-unit">started up a digital asset unit</a> in 2022. Cowen <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-31/td-cowen-closes-digital-unit-that-focused-on-cryptocurrencies">wound</a> the service down in June 2023 following an acquisition by TD Bank.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Other notable hiring news</h2>



<ul>
<li>Nicolas Bertrand <a href="https://www.fnlondon.com/articles/komainu-crypto-ceo-nicolas-bertrand-steps-down-cto-robert-johnson-takes-charge-20240215?mod=author_panel">stepped</a> down as CEO of the crypto custody firm under the Japanese investment bank Nomura.</li>



<li>Adrien Treccani <a href="https://www.reuters.com/technology/ripple-owned-crypto-custody-firm-metacos-ceo-departs-2024-02-12/">departed</a> from his role as CEO of Metaco, a crypto custody firm owned by Ripple.</li>
</ul>



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Crypto Hiring Q&A: Crypto firms are looking for Solana-literate devs

Bull market truthers would say bitcoin bottomed out at the end of 2022 and we’re destined for a parabolic run sometime after the next halving in April.



That would mean bitcoin has been in a bull market for more than a year. Not true.&nbsp;



Bitcoin has been in a kangaroo market for nearly as long.&nbsp;



The unpredictable kangaroo market hops sideways — sometimes aggressively — while bull and bear market trend consistently in one direction.&nbsp;



No doubt, a kangaroo market sounds familiar to anyone closely tracking the price of bitcoin over the past year.&nbsp;



Kangaroo markets were made <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eSWKPa1mGoE">famous</a> by Berenberg strategist Jonathan Stubbs in the aftermath of the Covid market crashes in early 2020.



The S&amp;P had <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/16/upshot/world-economy-restructuring-coronavirus.html">folded</a> almost 40% across February and March before an impressive bounce to new record highs in August.&nbsp;



Stocks would whipsaw over the next quarter — a potential outcome flagged by Stubbs in a research note months earlier.



The insight had been distilled into a viral meme after Stubbs appeared on a CNBC television segment.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-us.googleusercontent.com/dENDYNszJoaferSRu3FBj36NRSD6H5SWjJcj7g2jZ1rRilwPTBsI20l_4ajy2yv88VtXTyWILXFafDHFZaKc8qHzjQoMqdZ4ITwWpIgBqIg75-s_DDB_abeJVAWv4osR3JcSNRx4hO0LgIIBZt3x7EQ" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">The three animal spirits of financial markets (<a href="https://twitter.com/wallstmemes/status/1467963284800385024">source</a>)</figcaption></figure>



Granted, bitcoin has more than doubled since the end of 2022, which certainly sounds like a bull market.&nbsp;



But most of that action was a simple bounce from <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/one-year-since-terra">Terra’s collapse</a> and the subsequent rolling liquidations that triggered a string of bankruptcies, ultimately leading to the FTX scandal.



One month after Terra’s implosion, Celsius, Three Arrows Capital and Voyager all went bust. Outside of the stress those collapses put on crypto markets, the Federal Reserve had just announced the biggest rate hikes in almost three decades, leading to widespread negative sentiment across both crypto and equities markets — heavily dragging prices.



Bitcoin changed hands for close to $30,000 in June 2022, a month which marked BTC’s worst monthly <a href="https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2022/07/01/brutal-month-for-bitcoin-as-june-ends-with-biggest-drop-in-11-years/">candle</a> in 11 years. FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried’s outing as a multibillion-dollar fraudster triggered a further 20% fall in November, wiping the bulk of the previous bull run off the chart.&nbsp;



Bitcoin had totally shaken off the FTX crash by the end of January, and had properly reclaimed the $30,000 mark by March, even nearing its pre-Terra price point.&nbsp;



Recovering from those debacles would signal the beginning of bitcoin’s current kangaroo market: Bitcoin jumped around for the next eight months but went practically nowhere.



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-retraces-bull-market">Bitcoin price often drops 20% in bull markets — but it’s becoming less frequent</a>



In fact, most of bitcoin&#8217;s gains over the past year came directly after some <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/fake-news-impacts-crypto-markets">very fake news</a>. Bitcoin suddenly rallied 10% in October 2023 after Cointelegraph’s X account claimed the SEC had approved BlackRock’s ETF, when in fact no such decision would be made for months.&nbsp;



One might expect bitcoin would’ve given up those gains once markets found out the post was wrong, as has happened in similar scenarios over the past few years.&nbsp;



Bitcoin did no such thing. It even rallied another 25% over the next few weeks — and then again by nearly one-third leading up to the real bitcoin ETF launch earlier this month. But bitcoin then proceeded to dump by up to 21% in a classic “buy the rumor, sell the news” event from which it’s yet to fully recover. It has been hopping up and down ever since — like a kangaroo.&nbsp;



Major “sell the news” events are <a href="https://www.cmcmarkets.com/en/trading-guides/buy-the-rumour-sell-the-news">earmarked</a> by steady accumulation before a sudden crash after a highly anticipated date — and rarely say much about which type of market we’re in.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-flourish wp-block-embed-flourish"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<iframe class="wp-embedded-content" sandbox="allow-scripts" security="restricted" title="Interactive or visual content" src="https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/16645568/embed#?secret=t7ihizUrhM" data-secret="t7ihizUrhM" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" height="575" width="700"></iframe>
</div><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Bitcoin is here, in a kangaroo market</figcaption></figure>



To be clear, there are no formal definitions for “kangaroo market” (although “bull” and “bear” definitions are similarly vague).&nbsp;



VIX, the benchmark volatility index for stocks, had just <a href="https://www.sifma.org/resources/research/the-vixs-wild-ride/">skyrocketed</a> due to the Covid crashes when Berenberg’s Stubbs popularized the term three years ago. Volatility kept relatively high for much of the following year, during which time the S&amp;P 500 went mostly sideways — hence the whole kangaroo thing back in 2020.



Bitcoin’s historic volatility, meanwhile, has generally trended down over the past few years and hasn’t seen any spikes on par with the VIX around Covid. Still, historical bitcoin volatility has now been rising since September.&nbsp;



Stubbs later explained that the kangaroo market had much to do with valuations being pulled from all sides: Downside risks outside of COVID such as tensions over Brexit, the Trump-Biden presidential race and strained US-China relations kept prices down, while bloated supply chains threatened revenues and flared credit risks across the global economy.



“But then you have this historic support of central bank liquidity from what I call QE plus, which is a [combined support mechanism of] fiscal and monetary support. You have vaccine hopes coming through and let’s not forget, we do have a pathway to recovery, albeit one with risk [&#8230;]



So markets are kind of trapped in the middle and kangaroo along until we have this decisive break in either direction.”



Bitcoin is likewise trapped right now: <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/bitcoin-etf">Spot bitcoin ETFs</a> may have opened it up to previously untapped liquidity, but that has yet to convert to higher prices — even though BlackRock, Fidelity, Bitwise and others have collectively bought billions of dollars in bitcoin over the past three weeks.



Whether they intended to or not, those funds (like the central banks in Stubbs’ scenario) have played critical support at a time of major liquidation threats: The <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/ftx-sells-gbtc-shares">FTX estate was busy pulling $1 billion in bitcoin</a> from Grayscale’s flagship trust during the spot ETF’s first week.&nbsp;



Theoretically, those FTX flows could have contributed to even lower prices had the other spot funds not experienced billions in inflows on their own.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">there were also institutional claim buyers, but i think they were BTC basis, looking to buy-up and hold discounted BTC. total BTC left 142k out of the 200k found by <a href="https://twitter.com/MagicalTux?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@MagicalTux</a>. bankruptcy lawyers spent the other 56k btc over the 10 years.&mdash; Adam Back (@adam3us) <a href="https://twitter.com/adam3us/status/1750120349675503802?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 24, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Bitcoin veteran Adam Back, like everyone else, wants to know how Mt. Gox repayments will impact prices</figcaption></figure>



Now, sometime over the next two months, <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/off-the-chain-capital-mt-gox">Mt. Gox’s</a> estate is set to distribute upwards of 138,000 BTC ($5.87 billion) to nearly 130,000 creditors, who have been waiting a decade to receive their money back.&nbsp;



Bitcoin’s price has multiplied by more than 50 times, leading to speculation that many would be eager to sell their bitcoin as soon as possible, pushing prices lower.&nbsp;



Mt. Gox payouts are set to come just ahead of the next halving, which cuts block rewards by 50% and radically shifts the economics of bitcoin mining.&nbsp;



Read more: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-halving-expected-on-4-20">Bitcoin halving expected to hit on 4/20</a>



Mining operations writ large may face stress tests should bitcoin fail to rally in the year or so after the halving, and especially so if bitcoin falls significantly from here. If that happens, miners could be inspired to sell some of their treasuries to make ends meet. Miners altogether hold about 10% of the circulating supply, equal to around $80 billion.



All this while US stocks firmly enter a bull market, with the S&amp;P 500, the Dow and the Nasdaq 100 all hovering at record highs.&nbsp;



Bitcoin could soon be left wishing for even closer correlation with the US stock market if this kangaroo market keeps up.



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>


<div class="wp-block-post-author-biography">David is an Editor based in the Netherlands focused on data-driven journalism. Previously, he wrote for TheNextWeb&#8217;s crypto vertical before launching Protos in 2021. He&#8217;s a reformed hardline Bitcoiner passionate about permissionless and decentralized networks. Contact David at david@blockworks.co</div>


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No bull: Bitcoin has been in a kangaroo market for nearly a whole year

Bitcoin has pressed on with its price rally, and if you believe traditional market math, another bull run has long been confirmed.



The price of <a href="https://blockworks.co/price/btc">BTC</a> briefly cleared $42,000 Monday morning — up nearly one-fifth over the past month and by 150% over the year to date, about on par with Meta but trailing Nvidia.



Bitcoin is now at levels not seen since about a month <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/one-year-since-terra">before Terra collapsed</a> in May 2022, pulling crypto into its <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/longest-bitcoin-bear-market-survival">longest bear market in history</a> by at least one metric.



Potential approval for spot bitcoin ETFs from banks like BlackRock and Fidelity may have pushed bitcoin higher. The DOJ <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/us-binance-changpeng-zhao-personality">finalizing its case</a> against Binance and co-founder Changpeng Zhao also appear to have helped, with markets no longer wondering about the worst case scenario.



While not an exact science, standard definitions say that bull markets are confirmed when an asset climbs 20% from recent lows, and bear markets demand a 20% drop from prior highs.&nbsp;



The S&amp;P 500, for example, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/bull-stock-market-wall-street-cde5d042da6aa887e7d5ba64b62815ff">confirmed</a> in June that it had been in a bull market since lows of October 2022.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-flourish wp-block-embed-flourish"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<iframe class="wp-embedded-content" sandbox="allow-scripts" security="restricted" title="Interactive or visual content" src="https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/16000023/embed#?secret=Ka9v9A6wGy" data-secret="Ka9v9A6wGy" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" height="575" width="700"></iframe>
</div><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">The log view better compares bull market returns</figcaption></figure>



Because crypto is typically more volatile than stocks or real estate — sometimes swinging 20% either way in a matter of days — it’s probably more realistic to confirm bull and bear markets over a longer period of time.



So, let’s say a crypto bear market starts when a token stays 20% below its most recent high for two months or more. And a bull market begins when it climbs that much above its latest lows and stays there for one month or more.



<ul>
<li>That would mean bitcoin has been in a bull market, its fifth ever, for the past 296 days.</li>



<li>On January 12, 2023, Bitcoin first traded 20% above lows set just before FTX declared bankruptcy last November.</li>



<li>Bitcoin held onto those gains for one month to start the bull market on February 12, 2023.</li>
</ul>



Napkin math like this is fun, but it should be stressed that bitcoin, like all other cryptocurrencies, is an incredibly young asset.&nbsp;



With only around 13 years of price history, it’s somewhat silly to expect any real insight from studying its past performance, whether it’s about bull markets or the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-price-mirrors-2012-halving">impact of halvings</a>.



Still, plotting out bitcoin’s bull run so far against its previous major rallies shows some correlation: its returns match the previous two runs almost exactly: 170% compared to 165% in 2020 and 140% in late 2015.



Those rallies topped out years later up thousands of percent, although this time might pale in comparison as bull run returns have diminished every cycle.&nbsp;



Bull markets also don’t go in a straight line, with price corrections between 30% and 50% common across cycles even in multi-month uptrends.



In any case, the last two bull markets lasted more than two and a half years each — so it could be early days if the bull is truly back.



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How this Bitcoin bull market tracks to other major price rallies

Sebastian Sinclair

Trade activity for the world’s largest digital asset this year has, so far, remained fairly neutral to wider macroeconomic developments as market demand for bitcoin continues to prop up its price.



Assuming the November 2022 lows represent the bottom of the previous cycle, it&#8217;s possible to analyze the extent of the “bull market corrections” up to this point, Glassnode said Monday.



The steepest decline recorded for bitcoin (<a href="https://blockworks.co/price/btc" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">BTC</a>) this year represents a mere -18%, which is low when compared to past cycles of bygone eras.



Data shows that, on average, bitcoin’s prior peak-to-troughs stood at roughly 48%, suggesting a “relatively strong degree of demand” for bitcoin currently exists, <a href="https://insights.glassnode.com/the-week-onchain-week-28-2023/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Glassnode said</a>.


<div class="wp-block-image">
<figure class="aligncenter size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1451" height="628" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/glassnode-prior-drawdowns-btc.jpg?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-61439" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/glassnode-prior-drawdowns-btc.jpg?w=1451 1451w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/glassnode-prior-drawdowns-btc.jpg?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/glassnode-prior-drawdowns-btc.jpg?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/glassnode-prior-drawdowns-btc.jpg?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/glassnode-prior-drawdowns-btc.jpg?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/glassnode-prior-drawdowns-btc.jpg?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/glassnode-prior-drawdowns-btc.jpg?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/glassnode-prior-drawdowns-btc.jpg?w=80 80w" sizes="(max-width: 1451px) 100vw, 1451px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Bitcoin&#8217;s bull market correction drawdown history; Source: <a href="https://insights.glassnode.com/the-week-onchain-week-28-2023/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Glassnode</a></figcaption></figure></div>


To further that point, the number of unique addresses holding 1 BTC surpassed the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/million-addresses-own-1-bitcoin">1 million threshold</a> for the first time on May 17 of this year — an indication of greater adoption.



Bitcoin’s hash rate, also another measure of adoption based on the network’s increase in security, rose to fresh heights on July 9, above 402 ExaHash per second (EH/s), <a href="https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/bitcoin-hashrate-chart/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">data shows</a>.



Mathias Beke, co-founder and CTO at market maker Kairon Labs, told Blockworks current sentiment and price action marked a “typical recovery phase.”



When asked if traders were looking to sell following excess market froth following Blackrock’s spot bitcoin ETF application, Beke said they were wary of potential declines and as such are not making significant moves in either direction.



“We think it’s a mix of big tech being fairly parabolic, but it looks like they might cool down a bit,” he said.



Still, uncertainty surrounding the US market and its approach to digital asset regulation has given traders pause, particularly as the asset’s four-year halving event swiftly approaches.



“At the moment there’s a lot up in the air around Binance, as well as the liquidations that could take place from FTX and Celsius,” Beke said.



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Bitcoin seeing ‘strong demand’ as crypto market eyes ‘recovery phase’

This year’s bitcoin rally bears an uncanny resemblance to the 2018 bear market. The price of bitcoin (<a href="https://blockworks.co/price/btc" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">BTC</a>) is even clawing back losses in a similar fashion.



Bitcoin sank from just under $20,000 to less than $3,200 in 2018 — a 84% drawdown. In late 2021 and throughout last year, BTC dropped below $16,000 from more than $69,000, a 78% collapse. 



According to research unit K33, both cycles lasted for about 370 days and recovery trends were identical: 60% return in 510 days.&nbsp;



Beyond the usual caveat regarding past performance being no indication of future results, K33 said in a recent <a href="https://k33.com/research/analysis/analysis/A-reliable-pattern-or-an-illusory-correlation" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">note</a> the similarity between 2022’s and 2018’s drawdown is “staggering.”



So, if the 2018 bear market ended after 556 days from the 2017 peak with a 34% decline, K33 believes bitcoin could muster a rally to $45,000 by May 20 — a 50% jump from here. If history repeats, that is.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="2155" height="1128" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/bitcoindrawdowns.jpg?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-52496" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/bitcoindrawdowns.jpg?w=2155 2155w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/bitcoindrawdowns.jpg?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/bitcoindrawdowns.jpg?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/bitcoindrawdowns.jpg?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/bitcoindrawdowns.jpg?w=1536 1536w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/bitcoindrawdowns.jpg?w=2048 2048w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/bitcoindrawdowns.jpg?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/bitcoindrawdowns.jpg?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/bitcoindrawdowns.jpg?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/bitcoindrawdowns.jpg?w=80 80w" sizes="(max-width: 2155px) 100vw, 2155px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">The black line (current cycle) is tracking previous cycles</figcaption></figure>



K33 suggested the resemblance between cycles could come down to the psychology of the typical BTC holder. &#8220;Committed long-term holders are still unwilling to sell at a 60% drawdown from the previous peak and use these periods as accumulation periods,&#8221; the firm said.



Recent crypto performance can still be attributed to two factors: the banking crisis and increased utility, Dan Weiskopf and Mike Venuto, co-portfolio managers of Amplify&#8217;s blockchain-focused ETF BLOK said in a recent report.



The advent of Bitcoin inscriptions (<a href="https://blockworks.co/news/new-bitcoin-ordinals-marketplace" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Ordinals</a>) may inject a further $5 billion in incremental value into the ecosystem, the pair said, which would provide increased revenue to miners over the long term.



Our current macro environment also appears consistent with past rally patterns and fundamentals, per Weiskopf and Venuto.



Bitcoin has an ability to rally during economic crises, they said, pointing to the Cypriot financial crisis in Greece in 2013, Brexit in 2016 and more recently, the economic turbulence resulting from the pandemic in 2020-2021.



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Bitcoin Is Mirroring 2018 Bear Market Recovery

Crypto markets are looking healthy of late. But investors must weigh a number of downside risks on the horizon this year.



Mt. Gox creditors will soon be paid crypto they’ve been owed for nearly 10 years. Hackers stole 750,000 BTC belonging to the exchange’s users in 2014, worth about $500 million then and $20.5 billion today.



About 142,000 BTC ($4.3 billion) and 143,000 bitcoin cash ($16.8 million) is set to be distributed to those users in October. Creditor selling could result in a significant sell-off and price drop, Youwei Yang, chief economist at Bit Mining, told Blockworks.



“It’s always the debate of how big of an impact this will have for the market, my take is it may not be disastrous, but it could be significant along with other potential risks,” Yang said.



Bitcoin (<a href="https://blockworks.co/price/btc">BTC</a>) and ether (<a href="https://blockworks.co/price/eth">ETH</a>) are currently up 80% and 60% year to date.



Creditors however anticipate repayments might be slow, according to several discussions laid out in an Mt. Gox Telegram channel.



Other risks include the US government&#8217;s <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/us-government-dumps-bitcoin-silk-road" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">plan to dump another</a> 41,500 BTC ($1.26 billion) seized from Silk Road’s hacker. High-interest rates have also made it difficult for some players to borrow and expand.



Major market participants could even suffer lingering effects from bankruptcies following the Terra debacle almost one year ago.



“Even though most have revealed and recovered, the domino effect has not ended I’m afraid, until the rate cut,” Yang said, referring to the US Federal Reserve’s intentions to end further hikes.



There are also the regulatory risks presented by the aggressive campaign of major US regulators, including the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/binance-cftc-damning-quotes" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">CFTC</a>, SEC and FinCEN. 



Still, blue-chip cryptocurrencies have <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/bitcoin-ether-sec-crackdown" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">shown resiliency</a>. 



“We&#8217;re now witnessing the proof that indeed, when the Fed stops manipulating markets with infinite money supply, bitcoin stands alone, Mike Belshe, CEO of BitGo, told Blockworks. “Institutional adoption is about to kick into high gear, despite regulatory headwinds.”



Declining energy prices may also leave the door open for bitcoin miners eager to sell their BTC at a profit, with average production costs for most miners now under $20,000, according to Bit Mining’s Yang.



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<iframe class="wp-embedded-content" sandbox="allow-scripts" security="restricted" title="Interactive or visual content" src="https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/13400439/embed#?secret=bauVe5e30g" data-secret="bauVe5e30g" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" height="575" width="700"></iframe>
</div></figure>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Long-term effects of Ethereum withdrawals</h3>



There is some concern Ethereum’s Shapella upgrade, which went live on Wednesday evening, could be bearish considering it finally allowed ETH stakers to withdraw their crypto from the blockchain.



Analysts generally agree that the longer-term prospects of <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/stakers-shanghai-centralize-ethereum" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">enabling withdrawals</a> is a net positive, Blockworks <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/18m-eth-to-hit-market" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">previously reported.</a>



“Shanghai represents a massive de-risking event,” Lachlan Feeney, founder and CEO of&nbsp; Australian blockchain consultancy firm Labrys, told Blockworks.



About 15% of Ethereum’s supply is currently staked in the Beacon Chain, equal to 18 million ETH ($35.2 billion). The earliest stakers deposited their crypto back in November 2020, when ETH was worth around $700. It’s now trading for $1,935 — an almost 180% jump.



Technical concerns over the fork to activate withdrawals have now been abated.&nbsp;



While some may choose to unstake and sell their ETH, their ability to withdraw results in less risk overall, Feeney suggested. It may also lead to more ether staked in the medium-to-long term.&nbsp;



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Crypto Bear Cases Every Bull Should Consider This Year

On this episode of &#8220;<a href="https://youtu.be/hNes2ABSOdY" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">On the Margin</a>,&#8221; Blockworks co-founder Mike Ippolito is joined by 42 Macro founder and CEO Darius Dale. Darius gives listeners the details on his four horsemen of market risk signals and what they tell us about potential hazards brewing in the market.



Darius walks us through his point of view on the Fed’s inflation fears, the Bank of Japan’s reinstatement of yield curve control, and warning signs coming out of China. They also speculate on the 40-year bull run on the bond market: Could we soon witness to a regime change? To hear Darius’ take, you’ll want to tune in.



They also cover:



<ul><li>Darius&#8217; market outlook</li><li>de-globalization</li><li>and so much more</li></ul>



Watch the full episode below! 👇



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<iframe loading="lazy" title="Is The Bull Market Over? | Darius Dale" width="1024" height="576" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/hNes2ABSOdY?feature=oembed" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>
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&#8220;On the Margin&#8221; is a two-part show.&nbsp;Once a week, Mike interviews industry experts. At the end of the week, he is joined by a co-host where they break down the top crypto and macro stories. Episodes go live every Wednesday and Saturday morning.



Subscribe to &#8220;On the Margin&#8221; today on <a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/on-the-margin/id1558223079" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Apple</a> or <a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/2yFL2nSsQucf1rzdEKbFZY" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Spotify</a>, or watch episodes on <a href="https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLvER9nHSRN3xVs_p-dl7L7K_ZgL6lSudu" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">YouTube</a>.



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Podcast: Is The Bull Market Over? | Darius Dale

On this episode of &#8220;<a href="https://youtu.be/M8jEjEGSk4w" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">On the Margin</a>,&#8221; Blockworks co-founder Michael Ippolito talks to Dan Morehead of Pantera Capital and Dan Tapiero of 10T. With more than 40 years in the hedge fund business at notable firms such as Tiger Management before pivoting to crypto in 2014, these two provide insight into the growth of the crypto industry and how big it could become over the next decade. 



Dan and Dan share their macro outlook for 2022 and discuss the bursting of the US bond market. They also cover how crypto today compares with 2017 and what the next big picture macro trade will be.



They also cover: 



<ul><li>Mainstream adoption of crypto</li><li>Bitcoin vs. gold</li><li>Secular inflation</li><li>And so much more</li></ul>



Watch the full episode below! 👇



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<iframe loading="lazy" title="Is the Crypto Bull Market Over | Dan Tapiero and Dan Morehead" width="1024" height="576" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/M8jEjEGSk4w?feature=oembed" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>
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&#8220;On the Margin&#8221; is a two-part show. Once a week, Mike interviews industry experts. At the end of the week, he is joined by a co-host where they break down the top crypto and macro stories. Episodes go live every Wednesday and Saturday morning.



Subscribe to On the Margin today on <a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/on-the-margin/id1558223079" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Apple</a> or <a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/2yFL2nSsQucf1rzdEKbFZY" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Spotify</a>, or watch episodes on <a href="https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLvER9nHSRN3xVs_p-dl7L7K_ZgL6lSudu" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">YouTube</a>.



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Podcast: Is the Crypto Bull Market Over | Dan Tapiero and Dan Morehead

In the latest episode of Blockworks’ podcast “<a href="https://youtu.be/CTsL2ygY0-c">Empire</a>,” Jason is joined by Blockworks co-founder Mike Ippolito &amp; Cooper Turley (otherwise known as Coopahtroopah).



Cooper is an an operator, advisor &amp; thought leader in the fast evolving DAO ecosystem. Cooper has worked on projects such as Friends with Benefits, Forefront, Seed Club &amp; many more. In this episode, Cooper shares his thoughts on the transition from web 2.0 to web 3.0, four steps to creating a DAO, the creator economy, how to invest in the ecosystem &amp; the outlook for the rest of 2021.



They also discuss: 



<ul><li>The community aspect of DAO</li><li>The future of governance</li><li>and so much more!</li></ul>



Check out what they had to say in the video below. 👇



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<iframe loading="lazy" title="DAOs are crypto&#039;s most important innovation | Cooper Turley" width="1024" height="576" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/CTsL2ygY0-c?feature=oembed" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>
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On &#8220;Empire,&#8221; once a week, Jason interviews individuals that have built the crypto industry to talk about their struggles, bold moves and tough decisions. For any NPR or Guy Raz fans out there, you can think of &#8220;Empire&#8221; like a “How I Built This” for the bitcoin and crypto industry.



Episodes are released every Thursday morning.&nbsp;



Subscribe to Empire today on&nbsp;<a href="https://apple.co/389JSpL" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Apple</a>&nbsp;or&nbsp;<a href="https://spoti.fi/3uVnxpC" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Spotify</a>. Watch episodes on&nbsp;<a href="https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLvER9nHSRN3wPkrDGTT5_8VC4Hjcq0f9U" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">YouTube</a>.



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