When it Comes to Bitcoin Futures, Do We Need to Mind the Gap?

The appearance of gaps on the daily CME chart tends to be relatively rare, and there is one down at $20k. Do traders care?

article-image

CiEll/Shutterstock, modified by Blockworks

share

As bitcoin (BTC) marches back towards $30,000, traders will look to its market structure for clues, and find the CME futures market showing a “gap” from early March.

Thursday’s 3.7% climb to $29,900 halted just shy of that psychological price tag — a region that’s proved tough to break out of with conviction for the past two and a half weeks. Bitcoin is currently trading roughly flat on the day at $29,200.

As speculation mounts as to the asset’s direction, some traders have begun to question whether a CME futures “gap” — near $20,000 — is expected to be filled sometime this year.

Loading Tweet..

The substantive distance between $20,300 and $21,100 has some speculating a retest for prices nearer to those levels.

A CME gap for bitcoin refers to a price discrepancy that occurs on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange bitcoin futures chart between the closing price of one trading day and the opening price of the next trading day.

Gaps occur because the bitcoin spot market trades 24/7 on various centralized exchanges, from which CME derives its Mark Price, while the futures market only trades Sunday through Friday, from 6:00 pm to 5:00 pm ET.

CME Bitcoin Futures, daily time frame; Source: TradingView

The significance of a CME gap for bitcoin is a topic of debate among traders and analysts.

Some believe that gaps on the CME chart can act as significant support or resistance levels, as prices typically tend to fill the gap at a future date. Others argue that CME gaps are simply a technical phenomenon with no real predictive value.

Still, their appearance on the daily chart tends to be relatively rare, providing further credence to traders looking to derive a directional bias.

One notable CME gap for bitcoin last appeared on Jan. 13 between $20,000 and $20,700. That was later filled on March 10 — the day of the failure of Silicon Valley Bank — when prices dipped to a low of $19,520. 

Last year, as prices began to collapse from $30,000 to $17,000 in June, a relatively large $1,400 gap formed on June 10, between $28,700 and $27,300. That was recently filled earlier this month when prices drove higher.


Get the news in your inbox. Explore Blockworks newsletters:

Tags

Upcoming Events

Old Billingsgate

Mon - Wed, October 13 - 15, 2025

Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit (DAS) will feature conversations between the builders, allocators, and legislators who will shape the trajectory of the digital asset ecosystem in the US and abroad.

Industry City | Brooklyn, NY

TUES - THURS, JUNE 24 - 26, 2025

Permissionless IV serves as the definitive gathering for crypto’s technical founders, developers, and builders to come together and create the future.If you’re ready to shape the future of crypto, Permissionless IV is where it happens.

Brooklyn, NY

SUN - MON, JUN. 22 - 23, 2025

Blockworks and Cracked Labs are teaming up for the third installment of the Permissionless Hackathon, happening June 22–23, 2025 in Brooklyn, NY. This is a 36-hour IRL builder sprint where developers, designers, and creatives ship real projects solving real problems across […]

recent research

Featured.png

Research

Helium stands at a pivotal moment in its evolution as a decentralized wireless network, balancing rapid growth, economic restructuring, and global expansion. With accelerated growth in domestic DAUs and Hotspots supporting its network, Helium is leveraging strategic partnerships and innovative proposals to scale internationally. The recent implementation of HIP 138, “Return to HNT,” has unified its token economy under HNT, simplifying participation and strengthening liquidity, while HIP 139’s phase-out of CBRS refocuses efforts on scalable Wi-Fi offload. Meanwhile, governance shifts under HIP 141 raise questions about centralization as Nova Labs consolidates control over the roadmap.

article-image

In 2011, WikiLeaks faced a financial blockade imposed by the US government. It was Bitcoin’s first major test.

article-image

Kado’s founder Emery Andrew spoke to Blockworks about the acquisition and what’s next for the team

article-image

LayerZero’s Bryan Pellegrino chatted with Blockworks about the firm’s next steps and its 10-year runway

article-image

Colosseum co-founder Matty Taylor is seeing “high-performance [Solana] founders showing a lot of interest in private trading technology”

article-image

Executives weigh the growth potential they see in the public stock and private credit/equities arenas

article-image

Players can stake ME, trade tokens and link wallets to climb the leaderboard