Bitcoin price still $43k after trading sideways for 2 months

Bitcoin miners are no doubt closely watching fee revenues ahead of the next halving, which is now expected to hit April 20

article-image

Art by Crystal Le

share

The price of bitcoin continues to chop ahead of the upcoming halving event.

Bitcoin (BTC) sat just above $43,000 early Monday morning, down 2.5% over the year to date but ahead by half across the past six months.

Bitcoin’s price is practically the same as it was at the start of December, although in between it reached as high as $49,000 as the spot ETFs launched on US exchanges last month.

Read more: No bull: Bitcoin has been in a kangaroo market for nearly a whole year

January was still a green candle — but only just — converting to its fifth consecutive positive monthly close.

Bitcoin is now on its longest monthly winning streak since the previous bull market, when it notched six green monthly candles in a row between October 2020 and March 2021. 

Bitcoin rallied from under $11,000 to almost $62,000 in that time.

That run started around five months after Bitcoin’s previous halving, which reduced miners’ block rewards from 12.5 BTC ($539,100) to 6.25 BTC ($269,550). Now that figure is to be slashed to 3.125 BTC ($134,900).

Bitcoin lore has it that halvings are precursors to enormous bull runs, on account of the all-time highs set more than a year after each of the past three.

As far as sample sizes go, three events is hardly enough to base any sort of statistical analysis. Bitcoin has however continued to track ahead of run-ups to the previous two halvings.

Nailing down the exact date for the halving is difficult, but comparing price action starting 200 days out from each event shows bitcoin is up around 52% with about 75 days to go.

At the same point before the 2016 and 2020 halvings, bitcoin had gained 5.5% and 17.5%, respectively.

Read more: Bitcoin halving expected to hit on 4/20

Past analyst estimates put the lowest sustainable price for miners after the halving at $30,200. Bitcoin would need to drop 40% from here to reach that point.

That figure was calculated before a huge influx of Ordinals-related activity, which has given miners additional breathing room. In any case, with block rewards cut in half, miners will surely be looking to transaction fees to bridge the revenue gap.

Bitcoin users have paid an estimated $124 million to use the network over the past 30 days or so, less than half in the previous period but two-thirds ahead of the average for the past year.


Don’t miss the next big story – join our free daily newsletter.

Tags

Upcoming Events

Hilton Metropole | 225 Edgware Rd, London

Mon - Wed, March 18 - 20, 2024

Crypto’s premier institutional conference returns to London in March 2024. The DAS: London Experience: Attend expert-led panel discussions and fireside chats Hear the latest developments regarding the crypto and digital asset regulatory environment directly from policymakers and experts.

Salt Lake City, UT

WED - FRI, OCTOBER 9 - 11, 2024

Pack your bags, anon — we’re heading west! Join us in the beautiful Salt Lake City for the third installment of Permissionless. Come for the alpha, stay for the fresh air. Permissionless III promises unforgettable panels, killer networking opportunities, and mountains […]

recent research

Top Icon.png

Research

Osmosis thrived in H2 2023 on the back of increased DeFi activity deriving from recently launched Cosmos-related projects and better market conditions. With new value accrual mechanisms for the native token, Osmosis is well-positioned to continue its strong performance in 2024.

/

article-image

Though the opposing flow trend is likely to slow over time, industry watchers note, bitcoin fund assets could one day eclipse the $90 billion gold ETF space

article-image

Celestia had the first mover advantage. EigenDA has staked ether. What sets Avail apart?

article-image

Bitcoin moved 1% higher Monday morning in New York, Matrixport analysts say $62,000 could happen next month

article-image

It’s hard to believe right now that crypto — even with all of its flexibility and massive capabilities — could ever be like cash on the internet

article-image

Michael Saylor announced Monday morning that MicroStrategy bought 3k more bitcoin after the X account was compromised over the weekend

article-image

Plus, Pudgy Penguins grows its brand and a group of Autoglyphs sell for $14.5 million