Coinbase Stock: A ‘Scarce’ Asset Worth $75, NY Investment Bank Says

The growing interest in crypto has been driven, in part, by institutional adoption as more companies and financial institutions are investing in digital assets, according to the bank


Primakov/Shutterstock modified by Blockworks


Crypto’s year-long winter is finally over with the market “likely” having entered into bitcoin’s next bull cycle — potentially fuelling crypto-related equities — according to one New York-based investment bank.

H.C. Wainwright said Wednesday this year’s rally in digital assets was a positive sign, with the potential for significant growth in total market cap, trading volumes and incremental user adoption.

“The market has taken a more risk-on approach over the past quarter,” Miguel Morel, CEO of Arkham, told Blockworks. “The direction of the space is much more optimistic overall, and the growth is starting to show in on-chain metrics as well as asset prices.”

That would play well into the hands of investors betting big on the likes of Coinbase stock (COIN), the bank said in a research note obtained by Blockworks. COIN last traded at $53 per share, down about 23% over the last seven days, but up roughly 60% year-to-date.

Transaction revenues “account for 75% of total net revenues and grew an exponential 524% year-over-year in the 2021 bull market,” the bank said.

Wainwright, a mid-sized bank, offers a variety of services, including equity research, institutional sales and trading, investment banking and wealth management.

Target price for Coinbase stock

The bank’s $75 target for COIN is based on its analysis utilizing a multiple of 5.5x enterprise  value to revenue ratio, based on the exchange’s estimated net revenue of $2.89 billion in 2023. 

“We view COIN as a scarce asset, as Coinbase is the only publicly listed crypto native company in the US with a market cap in excess of $10 billion,” the bank said. “Competition for investor capital is extremely limited.”

Wainwright observes that the scarcity value of Coinbase is unlikely to change in the near term, given the current regulatory environment for crypto.

But Owen Lau, executive director at Oppenheimer, sees that environment as a risk for the company. “I think the higher price for bitcoin and other digital assets help Coinbase, but at the same time there is still a lot of risk coming from regulatory uncertainty for Coinbase,” Lau told Blockworks.

“I hope we will see sensible bills coming out from the Congress and providing the industry a much needed regulatory clarity,” he added.

A trend of hostility to native crypto firms seeking to establish a presence across the US has encouraged major players, namely Coinbase and Gemini, to seek alternative jurisdictions.

Last month, Coinbase was hit with a Wells notice from the SEC over alleged securities violations. Chair Gary Gensler has been heavily criticized for throwing the rule book at budding and established crypto firms attempting to navigate opaque and half-baked regulations.

The exchange has hit back, filing suit earlier this week, in an attempt to force the agency’s hand on behalf of the industry.

As the cryptocurrency market continues to evolve, Coinbase’s ability to adapt to changing market conditions and regulatory requirements will be critical to its long-term success, the bank said. 

Several catalysts could further drive Coinbase’s growth, according to Wainwright, including greater regulatory clarity in the US and upward estimate revisions driven by the continuation of the crypto market’s bullish price action this year.

Oppenheimer’s Lau said he sees investors “taking a cautious view.”

“I do see the sentiment has slightly improved since FTX, but trading volume is still lower than last year despite increasing bitcoin price…Until we see more engagement from investors and higher trading volume, I wouldn’t characterize crypto winter has finally abated,” he said.

Don’t miss the next big story – join our free daily newsletter.


Upcoming Events

Hilton Metropole | 225 Edgware Rd, London

Mon - Wed, March 18 - 20, 2024

Crypto’s premier institutional conference returns to London in March 2024. The DAS: London Experience: Attend expert-led panel discussions and fireside chats Hear the latest developments regarding the crypto and digital asset regulatory environment directly from policymakers and experts.

Salt Lake City, UT

WED - FRI, OCTOBER 9 - 11, 2024

Pack your bags, anon — we’re heading west! Join us in the beautiful Salt Lake City for the third installment of Permissionless. Come for the alpha, stay for the fresh air. Permissionless III promises unforgettable panels, killer networking opportunities, and mountains […]

recent research

Research report - cover graphics (1).jpg


In this report, we dive into crypto private market data to gather insights on where the future of the industry is headed. Despite a notable downturn in private raises, capital continues to infuse promising projects that aim to transform payments, banking, consumer experiences, community, and more, with 2023 being the fourth-largest year for crypto venture capital.


BUZZ holds shares of Coinbase, Robinhood and MicroStrategy


Opinion: Even though I didn’t pay for my “Diamond Hands” burger with BTC, don’t let that fool you into thinking that crypto’s development is futile


The results mark “a major positive inflection point,” one analyst says, as the exchange carries net income momentum into a crypto rally


While the slate of 10 US spot bitcoin funds have tallied $4.6 billion of net inflows thus far, half of the field is lagging the leaders


Trading volumes totalled $154 billion in Q4, including $125 billion in institutional volume


DeFi on Bitcoin is all the rage right now and Stacks is positioned to benefit