Inflation in April rose less than expected, but tariff impact remains to be seen
Higher inflation historically lags behind tariff implementation, so don’t celebrate just yet
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The consumer price index for April rose 0.2% over the month and 2.3% over the year — marking the lowest annual inflation rate in more than four years. Core CPI (excludes food and fuel prices) also increased 0.2% in April, coming in at 2.8% annually.
If you’re wondering how April’s inflation figures could have been so tame in the wake of new tariff policies, there are a few reasons.
First, there historically has been a lag between tariff implementation and inflation rising. In May 2019, tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese imports were raised from 10% to 25%. A quick note that the increase was supposed to start in January 2019, but was delayed five months. Something to keep in mind as we try to predict what will happen today.
The May 2019 headline CPI report came in 0.1% higher month over month, compared with a 0.3% increase the month prior. Not too bad. The June 2019 core CPI, however, came in 0.3% higher on the month — the largest monthly increase since January 2018. Used car and truck prices — a decent proxy for tariff impact — increased 1.6% over the month in June 2019.
The anticipation of higher tariffs also had businesses stocking up their inventories in recent months, which could help delay any price increases passed on to consumers. How long that delay may last, though, is anyone’s guess.
Plus, a tariff-related decrease in consumer confidence and retail spending likely also contributed to lower prices.
Markets are still anticipating that the Fed will hold interest rates at its next meeting in June. That indicates traders expect the other “tariff shoe,” if you will, to drop.
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