June ADP report shows massive miss in private-sector jobs

The private sector lost 33,000 jobs in June; analysts had projected payrolls to add 100,000 positions

article-image

Jennifer M. Mason/Shutterstock and Adobe modified by Blockworks

share

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, subscribe.


June’s ADP employment report was a remarkable miss. 

Analysts expected the private sector to add 100,000 positions. In reality, private payrolls lost 33,000. 

It’s the first negative print since March 2023, although the figure has declined every month since March 2025. 

Stocks initially opened lower Wednesday but rebounded later on President Trump’s announcement that the US had penned a trade agreement with Vietnam, fueling optimism that other deals will be struck before the July 9 deadline. 

Odds of a 25bps interest rate cut later this month increased to 23.8%, up from 20.7% yesterday. Fed Chair Powell has said time and time again that it’s the data that will determine the timing of the next cut. 

Tomorrow, we’ll get the weekly initial jobless claims and the June employment report from the Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics. For initial claims, analysts project 240,000 first-time filers for the week ended June 28. If the figure comes in as expected, it’ll be especially positive for the labor market; signs of increased layoffs will be negative for markets. 

The BLS report is expected to show the economy added 110,000 nonfarm payrolls. Unemployment is projected to come in a hair higher at 4.3% vs. 4.2% in May. 

Here’s hoping those prints come in more in-line with expectations, but we won’t hold our breath. As a reminder: US markets have an abbreviated trading day on Thursday and will be closed on Friday for the July Fourth holiday.


Get the news in your inbox. Explore Blockworks newsletters:

Tags

Decoding crypto and the markets. Daily, with Byron Gilliam.

Upcoming Events

Old Billingsgate

Mon - Wed, October 13 - 15, 2025

Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit (DAS) will feature conversations between the builders, allocators, and legislators who will shape the trajectory of the digital asset ecosystem in the US and abroad.

recent research

Research Report Templates.png

Research

Content Delivery Networks (CDNs) represent low-hanging fruit in a massive market ripe for Web3-driven disruption. The global CDN market was valued at ~$28B in 2024, and is projected to surpass $140B by 2034, (18.75% CAGR) underscoring the immense demand for efficient content delivery.

article-image

How a political refugee turned NFT trader is giving back to his alma mater

article-image

July 9 is approaching. Here are the deals on the table (that we know of)

article-image

The trading app will appear on jerseys and in a dedicated financial web series as part of its EU crypto expansion

article-image

Trading on OTC Markets since 2019, the Grayscale Digital Large Cap Fund currently holds BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP and ADA

article-image

Long before BlackRock’s ETF, there was the Winklevoss Bitcoin Trust