Jack Farley


<p>Listeners of my <a href="https://youtu.be/duPz4tUy0hw"><em>Forward Guidance</em></a> podcast are in for a real treat with today’s latest interview. </p>



<p>Dr. William White, the central banker who foresaw the 2008 financial crisis and <a href="https://www.spiegel.de/international/business/the-man-nobody-wanted-to-hear-global-banking-economist-warned-of-coming-crisis-a-635051.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">dared</a> to challenge former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan&#8217;s policy of cheap money, is once again worried that central banks are in danger of making a serious policy error.</p>



<p>White told me<em> </em>why he thinks ultra-low interest rates threaten financial stability and create a bevy of unintended consequences such as flash crashes, overvalued asset prices and abrupt illiquidity. </p>



<p>White also shared his views on whether the US dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency is sustainable, and why bond yields remain low in face of the red-hot inflation that has descended on so many countries.</p>



<p>Lastly, White made the case that these economic woes are but one of the major four challenges the world faces, with the other three of the &#8220;Four Horsemen&#8221; being in the spheres of politics, public health and the environment.<br><br>Watch the full episode below! 👇</p>



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<iframe loading="lazy" title="The Unintended Consequences of Central Banks&#039; Easy Money | William White" width="1024" height="576" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/duPz4tUy0hw?feature=oembed" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>
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<p><meta charset="utf-8"><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jx5ZJc1R95g" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"><em>Forward Guidance</em></a> is a show dedicated to uncovering the heart of this conundrum. Twice a week, I’ll be speaking directly with fund managers, analysts, and financial industry professionals about how investors can grow and protect their wealth in this brave new macro world. These episodes air on Tuesday and Friday.</p>



<p><meta charset="utf-8">Listen to episodes of <em>Forward Guidance</em> on <a href="http://youtube.com/watch?v=Jx5ZJc1R95g(opens in a new tab)" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">YouTube</a>, <a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/4YWyPCna1Sg50fmRJGF0LV?si=ec9f51e5cbf048a5&amp;nd=1" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Spotify</a> or <a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/forward-guidance/id1592743188" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Apple Podcasts</a>.</p>


Podcast: Dr. William White on the Unintended Consequences of Central Banks’ Easy Money


<p>The global economy is headed for an inflationary decade that will turn the world of investing upside down. That&#8217;s according to Vincent Deluard, director of global macro research at StoneX Group Inc., who argues that inflation is not transitory as many — including the Federal Reserve — insist, but rather a lasting feature of the new economic landscape that investors must prepare for. </p>



<p>On the seventh episode of Forward Guidance, Deluard gives Blockworks&#8217; Jack Farley 5 reasons why high prices are no longer the cure to high prices, including today&#8217;s tight labor market, the flurry of post-Covid spending packages, and China&#8217;s withdrawal from its role as an exporter of deflation. Deluard argues that inflation itself is inflationary; while soaring commodity prices, supply chains bottlenecks, and excessive stimulus are undoubtedly the immediate drivers of the current spike in prices, the fundamental driver of secular inflation is an insidious increase in our collective preference for the present.<br><br>Watch the full episode below! 👇</p>



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<iframe loading="lazy" title="The Psychological Toll Of Inflation | Vincent Deluard" width="1024" height="576" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/pHjUeNzVHDs?start=2242&#038;feature=oembed" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>
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<p><meta charset="utf-8"><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jx5ZJc1R95g" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Forward Guidance</a> is a show dedicated to uncovering the heart of this conundrum. Twice a week, I’ll be speaking directly with fund managers, analysts, and financial industry professionals about how investors can grow and protect their wealth in this brave new macro world. These episodes will air on Tuesday and Friday.</p>



<p><meta charset="utf-8">Listen to episodes of Forward Guidance on <a href="http://youtube.com/watch?v=Jx5ZJc1R95g(opens in a new tab)" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">YouTube</a>, <a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/4YWyPCna1Sg50fmRJGF0LV?si=ec9f51e5cbf048a5&amp;nd=1" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Spotify</a> or <a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/forward-guidance/id1592743188" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Apple Podcasts</a>.</p>


Vincent Deluard on the Psychological Toll of Inflation


<p>Is the 40-year era of falling bond yields and low inflation coming to an end? That is the question investors have been asking themselves for months, and now that October&#8217;s CPI reading hit its highest level since 1991, it is a query that can no longer be avoided.</p>



<p>Eric Basmajian of EPB Macro Research is confident that all this anxiety about inflation is unnecessary. On today&#8217;s episode of &#8220;<a href="https://youtu.be/qJWwUFZPhnQ">Forward Guidance</a>&#8220;, Basmajian tells me why he thinks the rate of inflation will soon relent, and why he thinks the bull market in bonds is nowhere close to over. </p>



<p>Pointing to the fall in economic growth rates as measured by industrial production, hirings, and real rates of consumption and income, Basmajian argues that an overweight allocation to Treasury bonds will protect investors from a slowdown in growth, as can be seen by the rolling over of coincident factors such as industrial production, hirings, and real rates of consumption and income.&nbsp;</p>



<p>Basmajian explores particularly volatile parts of the Consumer Price Index like durable goods and rent, and he explains his long-term view that aging populations will ensure low bond yields in the United States just as they did in Europe and Japan.</p>



<p>Check out what they had to say in the video below. 👇</p>



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<iframe loading="lazy" title="Inflation Won&#039;t Last (Here&#039;s Why) | Eric Basmajian" width="1024" height="576" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/qJWwUFZPhnQ?feature=oembed" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>
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Podcast: Inflation Won’t Last (Here’s Why) | Eric Basmajian

<div id="highlights-block_617811dfb339a" class="highlights">
        <ul>
                <li>“Forward Guidance” explores how stocks, bonds, the dollar, commodities, and crypto are impacted by macro variables such as inflation, growth, and liquidity</li>
                <li>Each episode offers long-form interviews with sophisticated macro thinkers</li>
            </ul>
    
</div>



<p>Today I’m thrilled to announce that I’ll be hosting a new macro interview series called <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jx5ZJc1R95g">Forward Guidance</a> on the Blockworks podcast network.</p>



<p>The show will explore in-depth the risks and opportunities that investors face in today&#8217;s unprecedented macro environment.&nbsp; More specifically, we will explore a paradox at the heart of today&#8217;s markets.</p>



<p>On the one hand, with the help of central banks, risk assets are floating higher by the day, companies are hiring workers at breakneck speeds, and consumer spending and corporate earnings are at record levels.</p>



<p>At the same time, cracks are appearing in the very foundation of our financial markets. A slowdown in commercial lending, wobbles in China’s real estate sector and the surging cost of commodities threaten the narrative the central banks want us so desperately to believe.</p>



<p>That everything is fine.</p>



<p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jx5ZJc1R95g" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Forward Guidance</a> is a show dedicated to uncovering the heart of this conundrum. Twice a week, I’ll be speaking directly with fund managers, analysts, and financial industry professionals about how investors can grow and protect their wealth in this brave new macro world. These episodes will air on Tuesday and Friday.</p>



<p>The show launches today, Tuesday, October 26th, with Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy as the first guest. Alden shared her thoughts on why she thinks the global financial system is nearing the apogee of a long-term debt cycle, and the only way to unwind the leverage without causing ruinous economic data is through persistently higher inflation and a significantly weaker US dollar.&nbsp;</p>



<p>Alden also discussed her views on surging energy costs, China’s stock market woes and the flurry of new bitcoin ETFs that have come to market recently.&nbsp;</p>



<p>I will also be hosting a live show with the co-founder of Blockworks, Michael Ippolito. More on that later…</p>



<p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jx5ZJc1R95g" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Listen</a> to the inaugural episode of <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jx5ZJc1R95g" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Forward Guidance</a> on YouTube.</p>



<p>Watch the first episode. 👇</p>



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