The myth of ‘lost bitcoin’ in the age of quantum computing

Bitcoin’s distribution raises questions of scarcity and the fate of “lost” coins

article-image

irina02/Shutterstock modified by Blockworks

share


This is a segment from the 0xResearch newsletter. To read full editions, subscribe.


For years, Bitcoin enthusiasts have clung to the narrative that some of its 21 million supply is irretrievably “lost,” forever locked in wallets with forgotten keys. These “lost” coins have been viewed as a permanent reduction in the circulating supply, making bitcoin even scarcer than its fixed cap implies. But what if that scarcity isn’t as definitive as we think?

The rise of quantum computing and breakthroughs in cryptographic techniques have sparked speculation that no bitcoin is truly “lost.” As computational power evolves, the security underpinning bitcoin’s oldest key pairs — generated using what may soon be outdated cryptography — could be compromised.

This isn’t an immediate concern, as Bitcoin developers are well-equipped to implement protocol upgrades that shield active wallets. However, wallets abandoned long ago — like Satoshi Nakamoto’s — and whose owners are unlikely to migrate them to new encryption schemes, could become targets.

Imagine quantum computing so advanced that “key miners” can derive private keys from public ones, effectively “cracking” these forgotten wallets. This would bring dormant bitcoin back into circulation — not through the intent of the original owners, but rather new actors exploiting advances on the periphery of technology.

Far from being FUD (fear, uncertainty and doubt), this idea reframes Bitcoin’s evolution. The network’s adaptability ensures it remains robust in a quantum future, but it also challenges the idea that its circulating supply will permanently exclude lost coins. As Nic Carter has noted, Bitcoin’s security model doubles as a $400 billion “bug bounty” driving quantum advancements.

The treasure hunting of old wallets might one day become a competitive market, reshaping the narrative of bitcoin’s scarcity. In this future, “lost” bitcoin doesn’t stay lost — it merely waits for someone to unlock it, keeping the promise of 21 million circulating coins intact.

Whether that promise itself can be kept in the future is also an open question, but that’s a topic for another day.


Start your day with top crypto insights from David Canellis and Katherine Ross. Subscribe to the Empire newsletter.

Explore the growing intersection between crypto, macroeconomics, policy and finance with Ben Strack, Casey Wagner and Felix Jauvin. Subscribe to the Forward Guidance newsletter.

Get alpha directly in your inbox with the 0xResearch newsletter — market highlights, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, and more.

The Lightspeed newsletter is all things Solana, in your inbox, every day. Subscribe to daily Solana news from Jack Kubinec and Jeff Albus.

Tags

Upcoming Events

Javits Center North | 445 11th Ave

Tues - Thurs, March 18 - 20, 2025

Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit (DAS) will feature conversations between the builders, allocators, and legislators who will shape the trajectory of the digital asset ecosystem in the US and abroad.

Brooklyn, NY

TUES - THURS, JUNE 24 - 26, 2025

Permissionless IV serves as the definitive gathering for crypto’s technical founders, developers, and builders to come together and create the future.If you’re ready to shape the future of crypto, Permissionless IV is where it happens.

Old Billingsgate

Mon - Wed, October 13 - 15, 2025

Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit (DAS) will feature conversations between the builders, allocators, and legislators who will shape the trajectory of the digital asset ecosystem in the US and abroad.

recent research

Research Report Templates (2).png

Research

This reports analyzes the competitive dynamics of the Solana DEX landscape, identifying sustainable moats per protocol. We also find that Raydium (RAY), Orca (ORCA), and Lifinity (LFNTY) are valued very similarly on a P/S basis and what this could mean for Meteroa's (MET) valuation, which is still pre-TGE.

article-image

It appears Trump’s team is trying to avoid having too many cooks in the kitchen

article-image

A lot has changed in the six months since the Fed decided to cut rates

article-image

Vitalik Buterin catches flack with pro-communism joke

article-image

Bybit analysts think that the entrance for such a large institutional crowd has changed the way capital flows in crypto

article-image

OpenSea finally confirms its token is coming and available to US residents days after screenshots swirled on Twitter

article-image

Timing the market is hard, and for some assets it’s even harder