If elections were settled with memecoins, Biden would win by a landslide

PolitiFi is a super serious digital asset class

April 5, 2024 12:37 pm

Philip Yabut/Shutterstock modified by Blockworks

They say art reflects culture. If that’s true, then memecoins reflect the baser instincts: greed, hunger, self-preservation and the human urge to buy the bottom to sell the top.

So too, then, must memecoins invoking political figures gauge sentiment for their avatars ahead of the US presidential election later this year.

There’s only four tokens in the “PolitiFi” category with measurable market caps, according to CoinGecko.

Memecoins joe boden (BODEN) and MAGA (TRUMP) make up 99.7% of that value, while others include a ragtag bunch of spinoff Trump tokens and one for Argentina’s fiery new president, Javier Milei.

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Neither Republican or Democrats have confirmed nominees but incumbent Joe Biden and former US president Donald Trump are widely presumed to be running against each other again in November.

BODEN launched on Solana less than one month ago and is already valued at twice TRUMP’s cap — $487 million to TRUMP’s $222 million. TRUMP was first issued on Ethereum in late August last year.

TRUMP sent to an Ethereum address tied to Trump NFT drops are now worth $2.66 million

The big two PolitiFi tokens have multiplied in price 10 and 20 times over this year, and all things considered, are some of the best performing on the market — albeit one clearly preoccupied with memecoins.

Realistically, the success of BODEN probably has little to do with widespread positive sentiment about the actual guy.

BODEN memes make Joe look feeble, old and silly. Perhaps BODEN going up makes those attributes official in the minds of crypto, in which case positive price action isn’t exactly a positive. It’s also likely a product of the Solana memecoin bonanza which has provided BONK and WIF.

Polymarket currently has Trump beating Biden by 47% to 44% in November, if they’re both to run.

Interestingly, betters say Biden will win the popular vote in a landslide: 63% to 28%, which would more reflect what the memecoins are saying.

Both hold similar approval ratings in the real world, according to FiveThirtyEight, with Trump having the edge.

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Analyst Takes: Post-Election Insights

With the recent election, it’s clear that there will be a meaningful shift in crypto regulations and legislation. Trump is likely as pro-crypto as a president can be. He launched (multiple) of his own NFT collections and is launching an Aave wrapper called World Liberty Fi. He has also spoken out and mentioned that he wants to make the United States "the crypto capital of the planet" and transform it into the "Bitcoin superpower of the world". He proposed creating a strategic national Bitcoin stockpile alongside support from Senator Cynthia Lummis, promising to retain 100% of all Bitcoin held by the U.S. government. More importantly, we’re likely to see deregulation across the board in a lot of industries, with crypto being one of them - as Trump has committed to keeping the crypto market largely unregulated. Crypto, DeFi in particular, has historically been knee-capped by overreaching and hostile governmental agencies and regulation by enforcement, as evidenced by the plethora of Wells notices and lawsuits over the past few years. With Donald Trump winning the presidency, Republicans taking control of the Senate, and being on the verge of securing the House, we think it’s likely that crypto realizes positive regulatory clarity. Below, you can find our analysts’ takes:

by Boccaccio