September PCE figures shouldn’t scare markets 

August’s annual headline figure came in at 2.3% after an upward revision Thursday, so things are moving in the right direction 

share


This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, subscribe.


One thing that is not spooky this Halloween is the latest PCE report, which showed prices increased as expected and annual inflation inched closer to the Fed’s 2% target. 

So Powell probably isn’t having any nightmares tonight, or at least any inflation-related ones. 

Prices increased by 0.2% month over month, according to the PCE index for September. Annual inflation for the 12 months ended September came in at 2.1%. 

It’s the lowest annual rate since February 2021. August’s annual headline figure came in at 2.3% after an upward revision Thursday, so things are moving in the right direction. 

Core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased 0.3% in September and the annual rate is 2.7% — just a tad higher than analysts had expected, but flat from the reading we got in August. 

The print did little to move the needle on rate cut expectations for November, with fed funds futures markets calling for a 95% chance of a 25-basis point cut, per CME Group data. It’s a bit far out to speculate too much, but markets are less confident that central bankers will opt for another 25bps cut come December, pricing in a 72% likelihood. 

Remember, the latest FOMC projections show interest rates ending 2024 50bps lower than where they currently stand. But, as we’ve written about before, investors have doubts the committee will follow through.


Get the news in your inbox. Explore Blockworks newsletters:

Tags

Decoding crypto and the markets. Daily, with Byron Gilliam.

Upcoming Events

Old Billingsgate

Mon - Wed, October 13 - 15, 2025

Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit (DAS) will feature conversations between the builders, allocators, and legislators who will shape the trajectory of the digital asset ecosystem in the US and abroad.

recent research

Research Report Templates.png

Research

Pipe Network is a decentralized content delivery network (dCDN) that replaces the sparse, capital intensive data center footprint of traditional CDNs with a permissionless mesh of independent node operators. By orchestrating under-utilized resources that already exist at the edge, rather than purchasing or leasing thousands of servers, Pipe slashes capital intensity while letting supply expand autonomously in the places where bandwidth is scarcest and most expensive.

article-image

Recently, pump.fun has made a bit of a comeback against Letsbonk

article-image

The labor market is screaming weakness, but inflation is set to head higher

article-image

Roman Storm was found guilty in a case experts say criminalizes non-custodial code

article-image

Scenius Capital also announced that ParaFi took a strategic GP stake

article-image

Crypto is still on a mission — and still needs users

article-image

After its first phone drew jeers from a popular tech YouTuber, Solana Mobile delivered on its newest device