The outlook for COIN as macro uncertainty persists

While COIN has dropped more than BTC and the Nasdaq year to date, Cantor Fitzgerald analysts are bullish

article-image

Coinbase and Vladimir Kazakov/Shutterstock modified by Blockworks

share

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, subscribe.


You know what the stock market is doing broadly. And how BTC has trended lower, too. 

But what about crypto equities — particularly the one many deem to be the purest of them all?

Coinbase’s stock price hovered around $165 at 1:30 pm ET — down 35.6% year to date. That’s worse than BTC and the Nasdaq Composite Index, which have decreased 13.6% and 15.2%, respectively, since the start of 2025.

Still, Cantor Fitzgerald kicked off its coverage of Coinbase by giving the crypto exchange’s shares a buy rating and a $245 price target.

“We expect we will soon see a ‘ChatGPT’ moment when it comes to Web3, and there is, in our view, no better way to play this dynamic than COIN given it has its hands in virtually every aspect of the crypto ecosystem,” Cantor Fitzgerald analysts wrote in a Tuesday note. 

They highlight the “robust” user growth on Coinbase’s layer-2, Base. And the potential for Coinbase’s stablecoin revenue ($910 million in 2024) to grow as stablecoins have a chance to displace traditional cross-border payment rails. 

“As such, we expect COIN’s business to be perceived less as a cyclical trading platform and more as a mission-critical infrastructure layer of the crypto economy,” the analysts wrote.

Morningstar analyst Michael Miller’s current fair value estimate for COIN remains at $170. He said in February he believed the company’s shares were “overvalued.” When I connected with Miller this morning, he said he now sees the stock as “slightly undervalued.”

“The obvious caveat here is that Coinbase’s business remains heavily exposed to cryptocurrency valuations,” Miller noted. “It has significant influence on their trading revenue and a direct impact on their custody and staking revenue, as those segments generate revenue based on assets held.”

As for other stocks tied to crypto, Strategy (MSTR) and Marathon Digital (MARA) are down 9.3% and 33.2% year to date. Galaxy Digital, which we noted yesterday could go public in the US next month, is down 48%.

Meanwhile, the share price of Robinhood, which saw crypto revenue of $358 million in Q4 2024, is right about where it was at the year’s start.


Get the news in your inbox. Explore Blockworks newsletters:

Tags

Upcoming Events

Old Billingsgate

Mon - Wed, October 13 - 15, 2025

Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit (DAS) will feature conversations between the builders, allocators, and legislators who will shape the trajectory of the digital asset ecosystem in the US and abroad.

Industry City | Brooklyn, NY

TUES - THURS, JUNE 24 - 26, 2025

Permissionless IV serves as the definitive gathering for crypto’s technical founders, developers, and builders to come together and create the future.If you’re ready to shape the future of crypto, Permissionless IV is where it happens.

Brooklyn, NY

SUN - MON, JUN. 22 - 23, 2025

Blockworks and Cracked Labs are teaming up for the third installment of the Permissionless Hackathon, happening June 22–23, 2025 in Brooklyn, NY. This is a 36-hour IRL builder sprint where developers, designers, and creatives ship real projects solving real problems across […]

recent research

Featured.png

Research

Helium stands at a pivotal moment in its evolution as a decentralized wireless network, balancing rapid growth, economic restructuring, and global expansion. With accelerated growth in domestic DAUs and Hotspots supporting its network, Helium is leveraging strategic partnerships and innovative proposals to scale internationally. The recent implementation of HIP 138, “Return to HNT,” has unified its token economy under HNT, simplifying participation and strengthening liquidity, while HIP 139’s phase-out of CBRS refocuses efforts on scalable Wi-Fi offload. Meanwhile, governance shifts under HIP 141 raise questions about centralization as Nova Labs consolidates control over the roadmap.

article-image

The asset surged over the past seven days to reach its highest-ever weekly close on the SOL/ETH pair

article-image

Industry watchers note that SOL ETFs have attracted a fraction of the demand for bitcoin and ether ETFs

article-image

Tariff swings impact stock market and company outlooks, with Apple and NVidia likely to be affected by China tariffs

article-image

The team says an attacker minted unclaimed tokens from ZKsync’s 2024 airdrop

article-image

The MIT research-based protocol is live in private testnet — laying the foundation for decentralized RAM

article-image

The Balkan micronation went from Bitcoin economy to blockchain buzzwords in 10 years