Coinbase Q4 takeaways, updated outlook
Even as BTC has remained range-bound in recent weeks below its peak, Coinbase’s early 2025 numbers appear to be strong
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong | TechCrunch/"518392245AG024_TechCrunch_D" (CC license)
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When Coinbase reports its quarterly results, crypto and TradFi investors alike tend to tune in.
COIN, after all, is, in the words of Oppenheimer analysts, a gateway for customers to access Web3 given its “leading and focused position in crypto, which benefits the company as onchain becomes the new online.”
And it’s public — unlike some others waiting their turn.
Onto the results from yesterday: The crypto exchange’s $2.2 billion of net revenue last quarter was up 143% year over year.
That was $305 million above Oppenheimer analysts’ estimate.
Transaction revenue was nearly $1.6 billion, a 172% increase from Q3. So-called subscription and services revenue grew 15% over that span, to $641 million.
The biggest surprise, Oppenheimer’s Owen Lau told me, was the higher-than-expected participation from the retail segment — showing such users are “gradually coming back.” See, for example, the “consumer” line in the chart below.
Sure, this was during a quarter where bitcoin and a number of other crypto assets hit all-time highs following the victory of Donald Trump and crypto-friendly Congressional candidates.
But even as BTC has remained range-bound in recent weeks below its peak, Coinbase’s early 2025 numbers appear to be strong.
Its 2025 transaction revenue stood at $750 million as of Feb. 11, the company said. Coinbase is forecasting Q1 subscription and services revenue to slightly increase to between $685 million and $765 million.
On that point, Morningstar analyst Michael Miller said his eye will be on the exchange’s USDC revenue in Q1 given the stablecoin recently hitting an all-time high market cap.
“I’ll be curious to see what a full quarter will look like at its scale and if USDC continues to take market share away from other stablecoins,” Miller told me.
COIN’s price was around $278 at 2 pm ET — down nearly 7% on the day.
Oppenheimer’s price target for the stock is $388, while Miller believes the shares are “overvalued” as, post-election, “the market is pricing in too much growth.”
You might recall one of Bitwise’s 10 predictions for 2025 was Coinbase surpassing Charles Schwab as the world’s most valuable brokerage. The asset manager said it expects its stock will top $700 per share, citing continued growth in its stablecoin business, L2 Base, and staking and custody services.
Bitwise senior investment strategist Juan Leon has this November 2023 tweet pinned:
Another catalyst to watch for, Lau said, is COIN’s possible inclusion in the S&P 500.
And then, you know, all the potential regulatory tailwinds that come from having a pro-crypto president, Congress and SEC. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said “it’s hard to overstate the significance of this change” given it is likely to pressure increased crypto adoption worldwide.
“Up to 10% of global GDP could be running on crypto rails by the end of this decade,” Armstrong said on Thursday’s earnings call — noting Coinbase will be “the preferred partner” due to its “trusted and scalable infrastructure with the longest track record.”
The company said it’s chatting with regulators and legislators to help shape US crypto regulation.
The chance of a stablecoin bill and digital asset market structure bill passing in the 119th Congress? Compass Point’s Ed Groshans, in a Friday note, said 75% and 60%, respectively.
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