Jason Yanowitz

Santiago Santos

Katherine Ross

Fundamental insights and behind the scenes perspectives from the industry’s key operators and innovators

Empire

Gm! This week we're joined by Felix Jauvin &amp; Quinn Thompson from the Forward Guidance podcast to discuss where markets go next from here. After the market sold off in reaction to the Trump tariffs, we deep dive into the bull vs bear case in 2025, Trump's end game, building the perfect portfolio, Coinbase vs Robinhood, is Bitcoin really a safe haven asset &amp; more. Enjoy!--Subscribe to the Empire newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire?utm_source=podcasts Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthompFollow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_incFollow Santi: https://x.com/santiagoroelFollow Jason: https://twitter.com/JasonYanowitzFollow Empire: https://twitter.com/theempirepod Join the Empire Telegram: https://t.me/+CaCYvTOB4Eg1OWJh--Follow the Forward Guidance Podcast: https://x.com/ForwardGuidance Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ --Grab your tickets to Permissionless IV. Use code EMPIRE10 for 10% off: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv--Petra Earn was designed to make DeFi more accessible for everyone—from seasoned pros to DeFi beginners. Manage your balance, claim rewards and deposit directly from the app. By supplying USDT to Aries lending pools, users have the potential to earn a higher yield compared to some traditional methods. Not financial advice. Participating in Defi carries risks. To learn more visit https://petra.app/earn --Zenrock is a permissionless, decentralized custody network backed by 1RoundTable Partners, 10T, Maven11, and Spartan. Live on Jupiter, $ROCK is the native token for transactions within the Zenrock ecosystem and secures Zenrock’s decentralized custody network. The first application launching on Zenrock is zenBTC – yield-bearing Bitcoin on Solana. zenBTC will be live in April 2025.--Crypto never sleeps. So we built an Al analyst that never blinks. Meet Focal by FalconX: a GenAI insights engine built for institutional crypto. Already used by 80+ funds managing $10B+ in AUM. 🔹 Screen, chart, and analyze 1300+ tokens🔹 Summarize market-moving news instantly🔹 Integrates data from CoinGecko, Kaito, Token Terminal, Tokenomist, The Tie Get started today: https://askfocal.com--WalletConnect is the onchain connectivity network . If you’ve connected to a Web3 app, you’ve seen WalletConnect. It’s everywhere—an icon of trust in crypto, as recognizable as Visa at checkout. The numbers speak for themselves: Over 220 million connections and 35 million users worldwide use WalletConnect to power their Web3 experience. @WalletConnect on X and Telegram or visit https://WalletConnect.Network--Token.com is a social-first crypto platform transforming how people discover and trade through crypto content. The revolutionary in-feed trading turns complex crypto into intuitive investments, while content creators earn from every trade and projects amplify their stories through native tokens - creating a new era of social media-powered crypto discovery. Just scroll to watch and tap to invest. Download the app!--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(00:52) Turning Bearish In 2025(11:38) Ads (Aptos, Zenrock)(12:58) How Trump Spooked Markets(16:44) The Trump &amp; Bessent Playbook(20:12) The Bull vs Bear Case In 2025(28:56) Ads (Aptos, Zenrock)(30:15) How To Position Under Trump 2.0(33:54) Will The Fed Step In?(37:55) What We Learnt From SVB’s Collapse(40:52) Ads (Falcon X, WalletConnect, Token.com)(43:05) What’s Trump’s End Game(47:53) Is Bitcoin A Safe Haven?(50:45) Building A Crypto Portfolio(01:04:23) Long vs Short Vol(01:07:26) Coinbase &amp; Crypto Equities--Disclaimer: Nothing said on Empire is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Santiago, Jason, and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

The Biggest Market Crash Since 2020, What Next? | Felix Jauvin & Quinn Thompson

Gm! This week we're back with another weekly roundup where we discuss how to position during a market crash. We deep dive into the Trump tariff dump, are altcoins cooked, the state of crypto venture, why Ripple's $1.25b acquisition is more important than you think &amp; more. Enjoy!--Subscribe to the Empire newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire?utm_source=podcasts Follow Santi: https://x.com/santiagoroelFollow Jason: https://twitter.com/JasonYanowitzFollow Empire: https://twitter.com/theempirepod Join the Empire Telegram: https://t.me/+CaCYvTOB4Eg1OWJh Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ --Grab your tickets to Permissionless IV. Use code EMPIRE10 for 10% off: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv--Referenced In The Show: Invest Like The Best With Michael Ovitz: https://open.spotify.com/episode/1vtKb0ZNt8xv9CaOPATSIX?si=d65f8b3bd413419d The Essays Of Warren Buffett: https://open.spotify.com/episode/0NYR5b0RktTaxWi68kT1io?si=74358acb99604fd4--SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 50 Million users over $11 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at https://skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork--Zenrock is a permissionless, decentralized custody network backed by 1RoundTable Partners, 10T, Maven11, and Spartan. Live on Jupiter, $ROCK is the native token for transactions within the Zenrock ecosystem and secures Zenrock’s decentralized custody network. The first application launching on Zenrock is zenBTC – yield-bearing Bitcoin on Solana. zenBTC will be live in April 2025.--Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security, proudly sponsors Empire podcast. Celebrating 10 years of protecting over 20% of the world’s crypto, Ledger ensures the security of your assets. For the best self-custody solution in the space, buy a LEDGER™ device and secure your crypto today. Buy now at www.Ledger.com --WalletConnect is the onchain connectivity network . If you’ve connected to a Web3 app, you’ve seen WalletConnect. It’s everywhere—an icon of trust in crypto, as recognizable as Visa at checkout. The numbers speak for themselves: Over 220 million connections and 35 million users worldwide use WalletConnect to power their Web3 experience. @WalletConnect on X and Telegram or visit https://WalletConnect.Network--AO Mainnet is LIVE! Experience the future of decentralized computing: infinite parallel processing, secure TEE-powered computations, and LLMs in smart contracts. Built on Arweave, AO's modular design shatters scalability limits. 100% of tokens are distributed to Arweave holders and bridge depositors, with a fixed supply and halving. Explore AO today: https://ao.arweave.dev--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(02:46) Santi's Trip To New York(08:25) Ads (Skale, Zenrock)(09:44) The Trump Tariff Dump(20:11) Ads (Skale, Zenrock)(21:30) Do Crypto Cycles Still Exist?(24:21) How To Position During A Market Crash(27:44) Are Altcoins Cooked?(36:24) Buy The Dip Or Sell The Rip?(41:13) Ads (Ledger, WalletConnect, Arweave)(43:28) How To Build A Portfolio(48:03) The State Of Crypto Venture(54:38) Ripple's Hidden Road Acquisition Is Bigger Than You Think(1:04:29) Crypto M&amp;A In 2025--Disclaimer: Nothing said on Empire is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Santiago, Jason, and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

How To Position During A Market Crash | Weekly Roundup

Gm! This week we're joined by Gavin Wood to discuss has the promise of crypto failed? We deep dive into hype vs fundamentals, why crypto needs more utility, why haven't we seen mass adoption, how to fix crypto's product problem &amp; more. Enjoy!--Start your day with crypto news, analysis and data from Katherine Ross. Subscribe to the Empire newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire?utm_source=podcasts Follow Gavin: https://x.com/gavofyorkFollow Santi: https://x.com/santiagoroelFollow Jason: https://twitter.com/JasonYanowitzFollow Empire: https://twitter.com/theempirepod Join the Empire Telegram: https://t.me/+CaCYvTOB4Eg1OWJh Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ --Grab your tickets to Permissionless IV. Use code EMPIRE10 for 10% off: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv--ZKsync is the pioneering zero-knowledge technology powering the next generation of builders with limitless scale. Secured by math and designed for native interoperability, ZKsync enables an elastic, ever-expanding network of customizable chains. Deeply rooted in its mission to advance personal freedom for all, the ZKsync technology makes digital self-ownership universally available.To learn more about ZKsync, visit http://www.zksync.io--Crypto never sleeps. So we built an Al analyst that never blinks. Meet Focal by FalconX: a GenAI insights engine built for institutional crypto. Already used by 80+ funds managing $10B+ in AUM. 🔹 Screen, chart, and analyze 1300+ tokens🔹 Summarize market-moving news instantly🔹 Integrates data from CoinGecko, Kaito, Token Terminal, Tokenomist, The Tie Get started today: askfocal.com--WalletConnect is the onchain connectivity network . If you’ve connected to a Web3 app, you’ve seen WalletConnect. It’s everywhere—an icon of trust in crypto, as recognizable as Visa at checkout. The numbers speak for themselves: Over 220 million connections and 35 million users worldwide use WalletConnect to power their Web3 experience. @WalletConnect on X and Telegram or visit https://WalletConnect.Network--Token.com is a social-first crypto platform transforming how people discover and trade through crypto content. The revolutionary in-feed trading turns complex crypto into intuitive investments, while content creators earn from every trade and projects amplify their stories through native tokens - creating a new era of social media-powered crypto discovery. Just scroll to watch and tap to invest. Download the app!--Timestamps:(00:00) Introduction(01:16) Has Crypto Failed?(03:20) Hype vs Fundamentals In Crypto(09:21) Ads (ZKSync)(10:26) Does Crypto Need More Utility?(13:37) Why Still Work In Crypto?(18:18) Crypto’s Product Problem(22:16) Ads (ZKSync)(23:21) Why Haven't We Seen More Adoption?(26:37) Polkadot Successes &amp; Failures(29:48) Crypto's Multichain Future(35:05) Ads (Falcon x, WalletConnect, Token.com)(37:18) What Is JAM?(40:19) Does Crypto Have A Marketing Problem?(46:35) Crypto’s Next Chapter(51:27) Crypto vs AI(01:00:25) What’s The Most Important Thing To Work On?--Disclaimer: Nothing said on Empire is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Santiago, Jason, and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Ethereum Co-Founder: Why Crypto Has Failed | Gavin Wood

This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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Just last week, the FT reported that Tether’s considering a US-only stablecoin. Why? Because their current $144 billion-dollar stablecoin USDT may not comply with potential new US regulation (which is still making its way through the relevant checkpoints down in DC).&nbsp;



Wintermute, in its last weekly <a href="https://www.wintermute.com/insights/market-color/market-update/market-update-14-apr-2025?utm_campaign=Market%20commentary%20newsletter&amp;utm_source=telegram&amp;utm_medium=social">market update</a>, noted that some of USDT’s market share had been “eroding,” thanks to both the as-of-yet nonexistent US regulation and, of course, MiCA.



Here’s why it matters: No doubt, Tether is still the biggest and&nbsp; — as we’ve seen Circle’s S-1 — most profitable player in the space right now. But, as I’ve been writing the past couple of months, regulation and adoption could lead to further shakeups as we get new entrants into the space and as others eat up more market share.



“The stablecoin market cap soared 15% in 2025 to a record $233 billion, with USDC fueling much of the growth by adding $16 billion <a href="https://defillama.com/stablecoins">compared</a> to USDT’s $7 billion increase,” Wintermute wrote.&nbsp;



Then, let&#8217;s take a look at specific ecosystems.&nbsp;



You have Tron, which saw a $6 billion bump — from $61 billion to $67 billion — pretty much only driven by USDT.



Solana’s stablecoin market cap sits at $12 billion now, up from $5.3 billion.



And over on Ethereum, USDC’s market share has jumped to 30% while USDT slipped slightly to 52% (a 4% decline), though it held on to its $64 billion valuation.&nbsp;



I am in no way, shape or form rooting for any of the OG stablecoin issuers to lose their footing or profitability; that’s not why this type of data interests me. Rather, I think competition in the space is good, and it’s a win-win for consumers: force the heavyweights to keep innovating without monopolizing and make space for the new wave of entrants. 



It adds a little spice to the sector. What’s wrong with a little spice?



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<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/daily">Blockworks Daily</a>: Unpacking crypto and the markets.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">Empire</a>: Crypto news and analysis to start your day.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">Forward Guidance</a>: The intersection of crypto, macro and policy.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/0xresearch">0xResearch</a>: Alpha directly in your inbox.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/lightspeed">Lightspeed</a>: All things Solana.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/thedrop">The Drop</a>: Apps, games, memes and more.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/supplyshock">Supply Shock</a>: Bitcoin, bitcoin, bitcoin.</li>
</ul>

Circle

USDC’s ‘fueling’ stablecoin market cap rise: Wintermute

This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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Nova Labs, the firm behind DePIN Helium, <a href="http://wagmi">announced</a> that the SEC dropped its suit against the firm just a few months after filing it (in one of Gary Gensler’s final moves).&nbsp;



Nova didn’t get off scot-free; the firm still has to pay $200,000 to settle the SEC’s civil securities fraud charge. Basically, the SEC accused Nova Labs of misleading institutional investors about its partnerships, per the original legal filing. Nova Labs didn’t admit to or deny any wrongdoing as part of the settlement. 



On the bright side, Nova doesn’t need to worry about the SEC labeling any one of its three tokens — HNT, IOT and MOBILE — as securities.&nbsp;



“The outcome establishes that selling hardware and distributing tokens for network growth does not automatically make them securities in the eyes of the SEC. It also means that the SEC cannot bring these charges against Helium again,” Nova Labs wrote in a blog post.&nbsp;



Overall, though, the settlement can be read as a win and yet another sign of the times. As the SEC moves forward with new Chair Paul Atkins at the helm, we can expect more changes — though it seems that we’re running out of crypto cases to drop or settle.



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<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/daily">Blockworks Daily</a>: Unpacking crypto and the markets.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">Empire</a>: Crypto news and analysis to start your day.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">Forward Guidance</a>: The intersection of crypto, macro and policy.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/0xresearch">0xResearch</a>: Alpha directly in your inbox.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/lightspeed">Lightspeed</a>: All things Solana.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/thedrop">The Drop</a>: Apps, games, memes and more.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/supplyshock">Supply Shock</a>: Bitcoin, bitcoin, bitcoin.</li>
</ul>

Empire Newsletter

Nova Labs announces SEC settlement

This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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The week between the Liberation Day announcement and the 90-day pause gave a good indication of where folks are at when it comes to huge news events that have potential impacts on crypto.



Everyone approaches sudden downturns differently. Some use it as a buy-the-dip moment, some hunker down and prepare for the worst, and others adopt a wait-and-see mindset that allows them to think an action through before an immediate reaction.&nbsp;



SKALE’s Jack O’Holleran would probably say he’s in the third camp, especially as an executive in the industry.



“If you&#8217;re working in the crypto space, you&#8217;re making decisions that are short term, that impact days and weeks, but you also have to make decisions that impact months and quarters, and so you have to be planning ahead,” he told me.



“And it frankly, makes things incredibly challenging, knowing that there are all these other variables outside of your control that you can&#8217;t accurately predict. You have to build volatility and variability into your plan.”



I asked O’Holleran what he thought about fundamentals in crypto, and if we’ve really started to see that shift play out as Blockworks Research’s <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/crypto-fundamentals-metrics-to-watch">Ryan Connor believes</a>.



O’Holleran thinks we’re still on the path toward fundamentals. I know we’ve heard the 90s comparisons a couple of times here on Empire. But O’Holleran pointed out that at the beginning of the dot-com era (before it was a bubble), speculation swirled around the tech, even when the products weren’t live quite yet. Crypto’s operating similarly, he noted.&nbsp;



In crypto, the evolution toward fundamentals will shift into focusing more on project metrics. The industry is in what O’Holleran referred to as “loss leader” mode.&nbsp;



“People are less concerned about economic values than they are about TVL and trading volume,” he said.&nbsp;



“[In] March there was a strong indicator of success at the infrastructure level. Because I think there&#8217;s a general belief that as incumbents and new players gain market share and build moats, they&#8217;re going to be able to then increase their profitability, or token value capture.”



And one of the key things we’re building up right now is just how we value different segments in crypto. O’Holleran pointed out that folks are still gauging how something like DePIN or layer-2 projects should be weighted in their categories.&nbsp;



All of these things reaffirm what may be a bit obvious to us: The industry is really at a maturity inflection point. Prepare for some growing pains, but figuring out metrics to value a project will, in the long run, be a net positive for crypto.&nbsp;



Bring on the fundamentals.



This interview has been edited and condensed for clarity.



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<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/daily">Blockworks Daily</a>: Unpacking crypto and the markets.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">Empire</a>: Crypto news and analysis to start your day.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">Forward Guidance</a>: The intersection of crypto, macro and policy.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/0xresearch">0xResearch</a>: Alpha directly in your inbox.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/lightspeed">Lightspeed</a>: All things Solana.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/thedrop">The Drop</a>: Apps, games, memes and more.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/supplyshock">Supply Shock</a>: Bitcoin, bitcoin, bitcoin.</li>
</ul>

How crypto’s evolving with fundamentals 

This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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Agora CEO and co-founder Nick van Eck is pretty realistic about where the space stands right now. 



Clearly, there are plenty of reasons to maintain a bullish attitude. But he cautioned folks to rethink the time horizons when it comes to adoption.&nbsp;



The CFOs and CEOs of large US corporations aren’t necessarily aware of the developments in crypto, even when it comes to something like stablecoins. Van Eck believes we’re looking at a much longer time horizon for adoption — three to four years — versus the optimistic outlook of one to two years.&nbsp;



Van Eck told me he’s having plenty of conversations with folks in the TradFi space — including some of the largest hedge funds in the US — and that there’s still a lack of understanding when it comes to the role that stablecoins play.&nbsp;



“We live in our own bubble in crypto…We think everything that&#8217;s going on…everyone else in the world is aware of [it], right?” But that’s not the case.&nbsp;



The real curve we have to tackle is educational. We’re in the early innings here, and that’s the big hurdle now that the regulatory picture is so much better for crypto.&nbsp;



However, once people understand, van Eck is pretty bullish on the stablecoin sector taking off in four to ten years.



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<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/daily">Blockworks Daily</a>: Unpacking crypto and the markets.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">Empire</a>: Crypto news and analysis to start your day.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">Forward Guidance</a>: The intersection of crypto, macro and policy.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/0xresearch">0xResearch</a>: Alpha directly in your inbox.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/lightspeed">Lightspeed</a>: All things Solana.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/thedrop">The Drop</a>: Apps, games, memes and more.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/supplyshock">Supply Shock</a>: Bitcoin, bitcoin, bitcoin.</li>
</ul>

Stablecoin adoption is still 3 to 4 years away: van Eck

This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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We’re thinking about stablecoin classification all wrong, Agora CEO Nick van Eck told me.&nbsp;



It’s easy to lump all of the stablecoins into one single bucket, but the reality is that the offerings are quickly becoming more unique and different as the space matures.&nbsp;



A lot of stablecoins are “very different, and have very different user profiles,” which means they “ultimately don’t even end up competing.”



“Someone who is looking to use USDe as a form of collateral is 95% of the time probably not the same user of AUSD or USDC. Maybe they&#8217;ll use it for trading, but [if]… you want to buy a treasury bill or a treasury bond, you don&#8217;t buy a corporate bond, right?”



You have centralized high-trust stablecoins, which include Agora or Circle. Then there’s centralized opaque, which would be Tether. The difference between the two is the amount of transparency offered, but both categories are focused on the global monetary network perspective.



Another is “centralized captive distribution,” which includes gaming companies or banks like Bank of America (CEO Brian Moynihan previously <a href="https://fortune.com/2025/02/26/bank-of-america-ceo-says-stablecoins-coming-very-soon-cfo/">teased</a> that the bank’s interested in such an offering). The idea here is that companies in this category are more interested in keeping their stablecoin offering within their business rather than expanding globally, van Eck explained.&nbsp;



The fourth and final one is decentralized stablecoins. This broader category captures the likes of Ethena, which van Eck praised as a “very good operator,” and some of the more experimental forays into stablecoins.&nbsp;



Agora’s customer base, van Eck noted, is usually made up of folks just coming into crypto, not more seasoned people who want to make a return on their collateral.



The team aims to create a global stablecoin network.&nbsp;



“We see a world where AUSD is traded on every single exchange and has global liquidity,” he told me. This opens the door for folks to build on top of Agora and “tap into our tooling and cross-chain infrastructure, our centralized exchange infrastructure, our FX on and off ramps.”



As lawmakers mull and vote on stablecoin legislation, van Eck is excited about what it means for the space. While he told me never say never when it comes to yield-bearing stablecoins — that’s not going to be a priority for Agora.&nbsp;



“From day one, I was very much expecting that the US government and the SEC would not allow interest-bearing stablecoins, which is why we designed our model as one-to-one, where we just share underlying economics with the businesses, versus it being natively yield-bearing.”



No skin off of Agora’s back, especially since it seems lawmakers aren’t too keen on yield-bearing stablecoins, either.



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<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/daily">Blockworks Daily</a>: Unpacking crypto and the markets.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">Empire</a>: Crypto news and analysis to start your day.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance">Forward Guidance</a>: The intersection of crypto, macro and policy.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/0xresearch">0xResearch</a>: Alpha directly in your inbox.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/lightspeed">Lightspeed</a>: All things Solana.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/thedrop">The Drop</a>: Apps, games, memes and more.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/supplyshock">Supply Shock</a>: Bitcoin, bitcoin, bitcoin.</li>
</ul>

Banking

Agora CEO has 4 stablecoin classifications

This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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When looking at data throughout the market, it’s fairly easy to find some bright spots right now.&nbsp;



For example, BTC volatility offers a “sharp contrast” to that of equities, according to K33.&nbsp;



“Following its massive sell-off, the S&amp;P 500 recorded its largest one-week volatility since April 2020, whereas BTC’s 7-day volatility of 3.1% sits moderately above its 1-year average 7-day volatility level of 2.5%,” analysts wrote.&nbsp;



“This orderly and relatively regular 7-day volatility of BTC amidst the broad market chaos is an unusual sight to behold, as steep movements in equities tend to be mirrored by even sharper BTC moves.”



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXcu1yVpYIkWomz2WrVxAlGS7S7FpmEvQ9Z8UQtjCMO3sJEchs4v2sF34gfqFCzyul7nCCBg_wkw1kpbQ7pi2qzosb4jA4NP6KDG-5SWDW59taVl7oNOhxhV7WMz1j6vme_PD_gK?key=vRZeGRCNXAHvOm2_TjgnUTtO" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: K33</figcaption></figure>



This supports another piece of data you all know I’m fond of: CME trader sentiment. As of last week, traders were holding on to their defensive positions, but seemed relatively unfazed by what was happening in equity markets.&nbsp;



“CME yields are starting to show a mild uptrend over recent weeks, indicative of slightly improved market sentiment. However, current premiums remain soft at 6.3%, reflecting cautious positioning, while open interest remains flat at 11-month lows. VolatilityShares outflows largely offset inflows from active market participants, as the futures-based ETF now holds 43,930 BTC – its lowest level since July 2024,” the analysts wrote.&nbsp;



The real test will be looking at this same data in a week to ensure it’s holding up, given that volatility has taken us on some wild rides so far this week. My read right now is that cautious positioning without panic is a good sign. Though, after this week (and, yes, it’s only Wednesday), I’m not sure that’ll still be the case.



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BTC volatility over the past week is slightly above yearly average: K33

This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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Good news: The crypto market’s been holding up better than Kraken global economist Thomas Perfumo thought it would.&nbsp;



He thinks the timing of the tariffs — while a total coincidence — is interesting for the crypto market, because it comes just as crypto nears the 12-month mark post-Bitcoin halving. In the past, this is when the cycle would have peaked.&nbsp;



Obviously, we’re in uncharted waters here, and I’m not even talking about the macro environment. There’s plenty of evidence to suggest crypto’s either in the process of breaking out of its cyclical behavior, or has already broken it.&nbsp;



But the impact we’re seeing is that folks — for the most part — are staying put instead of swapping out of bitcoin to chase the next big narrative.



“Everyone&#8217;s just kind of frozen and saying, ‘All right, I need a little bit more certainty around the medium term to even debate putting more money on the table anywhere,’” Perfumo explained.&nbsp;



“Bitcoin…has two favorable advantages: One is this kind of historical presence as the store of value that people hunker back into, so it&#8217;s a defensible crypto asset. And then the second part is that it also has a deeper connection to capital flows from the traditional investment community through the ETFs.”



Now here’s the big thing: Because of this new mindset for bitcoin, any further pullbacks could have negative impacts on altcoins.&nbsp;



Perfumo cautioned that further pullbacks could be on the horizon if bitcoin sells off more. With their higher beta, altcoins could then potentially see more aggressive selling.



For altcoins to really stage their comeback tour, he added, there’ll have to be some sort of catalyst that drives demand forward. Right now, that’s lacking, which is leading to folks taking risk off the table.&nbsp;



The overall tone of our conversation was positive, with Perfumo noting that he was cautiously optimistic about the flows both in and out of the bitcoin ETFs. And while we may see crypto IPOs like Circle hit pause in the near term, he’s not expecting fallout from that.&nbsp;



Outside of the public markets, I’ve heard takes from some venture capitalists. Basically, it’s a bit soon to gauge the impact that both the tariffs and macro environment may have on crypto investing. But the impact may only hit certain rounds — such as late stage versus early stage.&nbsp;



Right now, crypto — as an industry —&nbsp; seems to be protected despite its risky nature. But don’t count your blessings yet, because things could quickly change.



Proceed with caution.



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Bitcoin

Bitcoin has two ‘favorable advantages’ in this market: Economist

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Supply Shock

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So lending markets have yet to make a comeback this cycle — and it kinda makes sense.&nbsp;



But Galaxy may have some good news for us all: Lending could be ready for some green shoots of its own.&nbsp;



“The convergence of traditional financial expertise with blockchain-based innovation suggests a future where crypto lending services become increasingly sophisticated and reliable, while maintaining the unique benefits of blockchain technology,” Galaxy’s Zack Pokorny wrote.



“As the sector continues to mature, it may well serve as a bridge between traditional finance and the emerging digital asset ecosystem, facilitating broader adoption of cryptocurrency-based financial services.”



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXdGeYUkL4j9yywfyEiegcpEXxvuANCiCNVKv0Wzoyaw1DSrKcTSJgjQtyjVvOiYAWVPgn-9tihplUcPVC1wOUd4IV49eP-lpB-UpA8ul1WL0u4AUlLqCZ9KkY0Cwxiu-3vTqQT6eQ?key=cg99dqhikuDosdVOGNmsTCEf" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A look at the players in the space, courtesy of Galaxy. </figcaption></figure>



At the end of last year, Tether, Galaxy and Ledn led the CeFi lending pack. Combined, the three had a loan book of $9.9 billion.&nbsp;



Lending, at its peak, had a total loan book of $34 billion, per Galaxy’s data — and it dropped as low as $6.4 billion after the collapse of the sector. Yikes.&nbsp;



Depending on your vibe this morning: The segment is up 73% from the lows, if you want to look at it positively, or down 68% off the highs.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXfYezQcJqmWjpfI-BhIaPHSmz8bvXdzGBxyon4nxnkFqmx9XHln5Sx8jAH3E67bYnbpQbloq0R1sO90QZ0r4jefegf5HtkfAB46CV62_3z6fbNw10lw206DxwxJ38Bm22SR5zJ0?key=cg99dqhikuDosdVOGNmsTCEf" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A look at the performance of lending over the years. </figcaption></figure>



But let’s not just focus on the CeFi of it all, right?&nbsp;



DeFi lending has actually seen more of a comeback. There’s been a whopping 959% increase — with $19 billion in open borrows at the end of last year — in “open DeFi borrows on the observed chains and applications in the eight quarters since the bottom was set.”



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXf6nBeKMJzI29nUIpxvPRwzH7Klupde7QYB2wLAahjpGcC9z5EhtaIyV_linUw1UcIvx_aQqhZhVKbocv8qMyprJ7UPzz8Db1XbY9dpBPR4VXrdwRjmh8c-bX7LMDtC2nuxVRFc2A?key=cg99dqhikuDosdVOGNmsTCEf" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Just in case you’re more of a visual person.</figcaption></figure>



At the end of last year, the number of outstanding loans through onchain lending apps was roughly 18% higher than the peak — $16 billion — set at the height of the bull market last cycle.&nbsp;



The strength of the recovery “can be attributed to the permissionless nature of blockchain-based applications and the survival of lending applications through the bear market chaos that felled major CeFi lenders.”&nbsp;



I know what you’re thinking: This data is great, but what’s next for both CeFi and DeFi lending?&nbsp;



Well, the answer is pretty obvious for CeFi — it all boils down to TradFi adoption. That subsector of the larger lending market will bounce back as we see more institutional adoption. Easy peasy — or so it looks.&nbsp;



But funnily enough, DeFi’s in a similar boat. Pokorny noted that DeFi lending’s future is tied to more institutions being onboarded, and, of course, building on the lending apps.&nbsp;



“The cryptocurrency lending market appears poised for a new phase of growth, characterized by improved risk management frameworks, greater institutional participation, and clearer regulatory guidelines,” he noted. 



I know we’ve been talking so much about institutions coming in, but this is why.



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DeFi

CeFi lending’s up 73% after the sector’s collapse: Galaxy

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I have some good news: The Forward Guidance guys — Felix Jauvin and Quinn Thompson — still feel pretty good about bitcoin.&nbsp;



But I also have some bad news: Thompson’s not super keen on alts here.&nbsp;



In this morning’s episode of Empire, we saw two worlds collide as Empire’s Jason Yanowitz and Santiago Santos spoke to Thompson and Jauvin about the macro outlook and, of course, crypto.&nbsp;



Aside from Thompson’s astute point that he’s finding certain levels in crypto to be “interesting” but not necessarily worth throwing “a dart on the dartboard,” Jauvin’s points about bitcoin’s potential performance caught my attention.&nbsp;



<iframe loading="lazy" width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/LTvPTTvhHdA?si=d3nj93jq6LykmrXt" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" allowfullscreen></iframe>







“ I&#8217;m bullish Bitcoin and crypto on a mean reversion basis, but for an explosion past all-time highs on — let&#8217;s focus on Bitcoin, &#8217;cause I do think our asset class is getting old enough where we start piecing those apart separately,” he explained. To sum it up: Folks would have to bet against President Trump’s investment thesis if we want bitcoin to jump past all-time highs.



Basically, Jauvin argues that some of the things that aren’t great for macro — like the bond market and US dollar losing faith, and the Federal Reserve being forced to act — would be fantastic for bitcoin.&nbsp;



“These are factors that bitcoin was born for,” he noted.&nbsp;



It’s not stopping Jauvin from remaining bullish on things like stablecoins and the underlying technological advances pushing crypto forward, though.&nbsp;



“ People want alts to leverage Bitcoin a lot. You almost might be better off if you look at the stats and run the ratios of risk leveraging your Bitcoin,” Thompson explained.



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altcoins

What it would take for bitcoin to top all-time highs 

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Last week, Meanwhile announced a whopping $40 million raise co-led by Framework Ventures and Fulgur Ventures.&nbsp;



However, the raise is a bit more significant than was initially reported.&nbsp;



&#8220;This is the largest equity investment that Framework Ventures has ever made,” Framework’s Michael Anderson exclusively told me.&nbsp;



If you&#8217;re not familiar, Meanwhile is a bitcoin life insurance company valued at $190 million after their Series A announcement. Oh, and here’s an interesting factoid: They only have 10 employees.&nbsp;



“We&#8217;ve written all our own technology,” Zachary Townsend, Meanwhile’s CEO, explained.&nbsp;



I asked Townsend whether or not the firm would consider creating a US-based subsidiary, as its current subsidiary is fully licensed and regulated by Bermuda. Through that license, I should note, Meanwhile’s able to offer its services in a variety of countries including the US, UK and Canada.&nbsp;



Townsend explained that it’s on the cards in the future to build an “onshore life insurance company that interacts with our offshore company to offer Bitcoin products to folks in the US,” but it’s going to take a lot more than a friendly regulatory environment to make that happen.&nbsp;



“Insurance is regulated on a state-by-state basis, and obviously there are states that are more crypto-friendly versus states that are less crypto-friendly. I think doing the particular thing we do, which is having everything in Bitcoin, which we consider […] safer, would be quite difficult in the United States in the near term,” he noted.



Townsend explained Meanwhile has some plans to put the $40 million raised to use.&nbsp;



“Expanding globally is also an expansion of the products we offer and what those customers are interested in,” Townsend explained. “Sometime this year, [we’re] going to launch something that looks like an annuity in Bitcoin. So that would be … you put Bitcoin into an account, there&#8217;s a yield or rate of return in many countries that return [of] the account’s tax advantages.”



Meanwhile’s whole life product is a “massive unlock in terms of anyone who [wants] to be able to put Bitcoin into the policy when it&#8217;s lower [and] … anybody who does that will be able to borrow Bitcoin out of their life insurance policy over their lifetime,” Anderson said.&nbsp;



Townsend said Meanwhile’s product fit has found success in places like Argentina, Nigeria and Turkey, where folks may not want to take out insurance because of the limitations of the currencies.&nbsp;



“So much of the world has inflation risk, currency risk, regime risk [&#8230;] and cross-border risk, so no matter where you live, the idea of having life insurance in this global, decentralized store of value is incredibly attractive,” he said.



Has Meanwhile somehow made it — dare I say fun — to look under the hood of an insurance firm? Never knew that was even possible.&nbsp;



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