Jason Yanowitz

Santiago Santos

David Canellis

Fundamental insights and behind the scenes perspectives from the industry’s key operators and innovators

Empire

This week Christian Angermayer joins the show to discuss the future of crypto, AI &amp; psychedelics. We deep dive into Christian's past during the European debt crisis, why AI &amp; robotics will completely reshape the labor force, Christian's 5 key investment themes, the controversial enhanced games &amp; more. Enjoy!
--
Follow Christian: https://x.com/C_Angermayer
Follow Santi: https://x.com/santiagoroel
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Follow Empire: https://twitter.com/theempirepod
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Join the Empire Telegram: https://t.me/+CaCYvTOB4Eg1OWJh
 
Start your day with crypto news, analysis and data from David Canellis.
Subscribe to the Empire newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire?utm_source=podcasts
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Crypto’s premiere institutional conference returns to London in October 2025. Use code EMPIRE200 for £200 off at checkout: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london
--
Crypto-native institutions and developers demand institutional-grade infrastructure with regulatory clarity and full asset control. Blockdaemon's Earn Stack is a non-custodial platform combining high-performance staking rewards and seamless DeFi integration with no intermediate smart contract or vaults. 
 
Programmatically access leading Ethereum &amp; Solana staking rewards, plus DeFi opportunities across lending protocols, DEXs, and AMMs. Book a Demo!
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peaq, the Machine Economy Computer, proudly sponsors the Empire podcast. 
 
peaq is home to 60+ apps across 20+ industries and millions of devices, machines, and onchain robots. 
 
It powers the world’s first tokenized robo-farm, launching soon in Hong Kong, and has launched the Machine Economy Free Zone in Dubai as a Web3 x Robotics x AI innovation hub.
 
For more about peaq, check out www.peaq.xyz
--
Katana is a DeFi-first chain built for deep liquidity and high yield. No empty emissions, just real yield and sequencer fees routed back to DeFi users. 
 
Pre-deposit now: Earn high APRs with Turtle Club [https://app.turtle.club/campaigns/katana] or spin the wheel with Katana Krates [https://app.katana.network/krates]
--
Mantle is pioneering ""Blockchain for Banking"" as a revolutionary new category that sits at the intersection of TradFi and web3.
 
Key elements for Mantle as the ""Blockchain for Banking"":
 - Transactions posted to the blockchain
 - Compatibility with TradFi rails
 - Integrated DeFi features
 
Mantle Network, the access layer — transforms Mantle Network into a purpose-built vertical platform — the blockchain for banking — that enables financial services on-chain. Mantle leads the establishment of Blockchain for Banking as the next frontier.
 
Follow Mantle on X (@Mantle_Official) for the latest updates on Mantle as the 'Blockchain for Banking'.
--
(00:00) Intro
(03:08) Christian's Origin Story
(07:10) The European Sovereign Debt Crisis
(12:15) Why The U.S Will Continue To Dominate
(20:54) Ads (Blockdaemon, Peaq)
(22:06) Christian's AI &amp; Robotics Thesis
(39:36) Ads (Blockdaemon, Peaq)
(40:48) Why Christian Is All In On Psychedelics
(58:00) Ads (Katana, Mantle)
(59:37) Christian's 5 Key Investing Themes
(01:15:19) Why Life Expectancy Will Increase
(01:18:48) The Enhanced Games
(01:33:55) Building Friendships &amp; Partnerships
--
Disclaimer: Nothing said on Empire is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Santiago, Jason, and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Why This Billionaire is All In on Crypto, AI & Psychedelics | Christian Angermayer

This week Mike Dudas joins the show to discuss why he thinks this cycle is still just getting started. We deep dive into Mike's thesis when it comes to investing in crypto, his biggest winners this cycle, Flying Tulip's new model for raising capital, stablecoins, NFTs &amp; more. Enjoy!
--
Follow Mike: https://x.com/mdudas
Follow Santi: https://x.com/santiagoroel
Follow Jason: https://x.com/JasonYanowitz
Follow Empire: https://twitter.com/theempirepod
--
Join the Empire Telegram: https://t.me/+CaCYvTOB4Eg1OWJh
 
Start your day with crypto news, analysis and data from David Canellis.
Subscribe to the Empire newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire?utm_source=podcasts
--
Crypto’s premiere institutional conference returns to London in October 2025. Use code EMPIRE200 for £200 off at checkout: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london
--
Crypto-native institutions and developers demand institutional-grade infrastructure with regulatory clarity and full asset control. Blockdaemon's Earn Stack is a non-custodial platform combining high-performance staking rewards and seamless DeFi integration with no intermediate smart contract or vaults. 
 
Programmatically access leading Ethereum &amp; Solana staking rewards, plus DeFi opportunities across lending protocols, DEXs, and AMMs. Book a Demo!
--
peaq, the Machine Economy Computer, proudly sponsors the Empire podcast. 
 
peaq is home to 60+ apps across 20+ industries and millions of devices, machines, and onchain robots. 
 
It powers the world’s first tokenized robo-farm, launching soon in Hong Kong, and has launched the Machine Economy Free Zone in Dubai as a Web3 x Robotics x AI innovation hub.
 
For more about peaq, check out www.peaq.xyz
--
Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(03:39) 6MV's Investment Thesis
(07:15) Pump Fun 
(15:18) Finding Big Winners This Cycle
(23:27) Ads (Blockdaemon, Peaq)
(24:36) Why We Haven’t Topped
(29:03) How Will Crypto Returns Look Over The Next 5 Years?
(36:02) Prediction Markets
(39:23) What Did Solana Get Wrong?
(45:50) Ads (Blockdaemon, Peaq)
(46:58) Are Crypto TGEs Broken?
(50:30) Flying Tulip Raises $200m: A New Vehicle For Fundraising?
(57:46) Does Every Project Need A Token?
(01:00:05) Why Mike Is Still Bullish NFTs
(01:02:47) Stablecoins
(01:06:23) Content Of The Week
--
Disclaimer: Nothing said on Empire is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Santiago, Jason, and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Mike Dudas on Uptober and the Continued Bull Market

This week, the Hivemind team discusses their current market outlook as crypto starts to recover after a large leverage flush last week. We deep dive into why are SOL DAT volumes so low, the Plasma token launch, Tether's $500B valuation, the perp DEX wars &amp; more. Enjoy!
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Follow Ceteris: ⁠https://x.com/ceterispar1bus⁠
Follow Duncan: https://x.com/FloodCapital
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Follow Jose: ⁠https://x.com/ZeMariaMacedo⁠
Follow Empire: ⁠https://x.com/theempirepod⁠
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Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: ⁠https://blockworks.co/newsletter/⁠
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:25) State Of The Market
(07:42) Why Are SOL DAT Volumes So Low?
(12:24) Tether Raising $20B At A $500B Valuation
(19:46) Stablecoin Chains
(24:42) Flying Tulip's $200m Seed Round
(28:20) What Is DoubleZero?
(36:46) The Perp DEX Wars
(40:37) Hyperliquid
(52:16) Tokenization
--
Disclaimer: Nothing said on Empire is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Santiago, Jason, the Hivemind team, and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Hivemind: State of The Market, Hyperliquid, Plasma & Tether's $500B Valuation

This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



Crypto has grown into a Kafkaesque maze of meta-bets: Bitcoin is the reserve asset of the internet, and if it can do that, then Ethereum must be the World Computer.&nbsp;



But if Ethereum can’t scale to be the World Computer all by itself, then perhaps Solana, Avalanche or some other layer-1 will be the global settlement layer for computation instead.



That settlement layer will need apps. Lots of them. Great for the <a href="https://davidphelps.substack.com/p/the-fat-app-thesis">fat app thesis</a> — the investment logic that suggests “most of the value to be found in crypto today is to be found in apps.”&nbsp;



And if those fat apps have tokens, then hoo boy! — Imagine the value accrual. Especially for those apps that thrive in crypto’s hyperactive attention economy.



What if the apps are so successful that they overload their settlement layers, thereby proving that those blockchains can’t scale, either? Or maybe their devs, validators or other ecosystem participants are not aligned with the apps themselves. What then?



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Fun with flywheels</h2>



Odds are you’ll then love the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC9aOLLMQht_1FKRxbQe60NA">appchain thesis</a>. It has everything good about the fat app thesis, with the added benefit of a very special property: ongoing utility for network participants. Tokens can be dished out as rewards (read: payment) to the people and companies keeping the network online.&nbsp;



And those people need to stake their tokens (and not sell them) to receive more of those rewards — reducing downward pressure on the token’s price and maybe attracting new users (and holders) along the way. The token is an integral part of that flywheel.



Something that Empire host Santiago Roel Santos said on today’s podcast got me thinking about all of this. The topic of <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/polymarket-culture-chasm">Polymarket’s trajectory</a> had come up, and Santi recounted that he had participated in the ICO for the original blockchain-powered prediction market, Augur, which coincidentally occurred 10 years ago this week.&nbsp;



Augur had a brief moment around early 2018 but never enjoyed the same kind of cultural inertia as Polymarket — a fact that hung in the air as the opportunity came for ParaFi to invest.



<iframe loading="lazy" width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/21OwuCgRqMc?si=OGfeGXmdlg3oThzO" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" allowfullscreen></iframe>







“It&#8217;s a classic example for anyone that&#8217;s interested in investing in technology. And like, you could have sat there and said, ‘Hey, Augur&#8217;s not successful, so this is definitely not gonna be successful,” Santi told Yano and Dragonfly’s Rob Hadick.



“The reality is, it pays to re-underwrite the thesis under new circumstances. And yeah, you can laugh, sitting there all day long, ‘This time&#8217;s gonna be different.’ But credibly, Augur didn&#8217;t work for a number of reasons that we can talk about here. My main diagnosis is that you didn&#8217;t have a stablecoin. And if you can&#8217;t settle the bet on a stablecoin, it&#8217;s just really noisy.”



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">The Fed cut rates by 25 BPS yesterday. A trader on Polymarket &quot;aBeancounter&quot; who joined last month made $1.4 million on the trade. <a href="https://t.co/vj5gvLS1g4">pic.twitter.com/vj5gvLS1g4</a>&mdash; unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) <a href="https://twitter.com/unusual_whales/status/1968695508282618258?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 18, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



Santi outlined a scenario where someone bets 30 ETH, and the price of ETH suddenly crashes 80% while the bet is still in play. “It hurts to be right and then lose money,” Santi said. Polymarket fixed this by allowing bets to settle natively in USDC.



Sounds like a stablecoin thesis to me. Hadick expanded on Santi’s point. “Stablecoins are the enabler of other types of financial markets and financial ecosystems onchain,” he said. Without stablecoins, it’s much harder to “do financial activity in any real way over any long period of time onchain,” because of the FX risk.&nbsp;



And if free-flowing stablecoins are the crucial infrastructure layer that has so far been missing from the crypto economy, then it’s not just the prediction-market thesis that needs re-underwriting. It’s practically every other vertical in the space: NFTs, gaming, you name it.



Santi said: “[A quote has] just stuck with me forever, which is ‘Anytime you remove friction from a system, it unlocks non-linear consumer behavior.’ The internet, e-commerce, and then stablecoins, [which] I think are primitive from e-commerce to gaming to everything in the middle. It&#8217;s just explosive, and I think we’re just scratching the surface of what is gonna be possible here.”



But if bitcoin is the reserve asset of the internet, and stablecoins are the unit of account of the crypto economy — sprawling with social, finance and gaming platforms, exchanges, prediction markets, launchpads and apps we’re yet to even dreamed of — then what about the tokens issued by all the apps? What do they do? What would Polymarket’s token do, if it launched one tomorrow?



We’re about to get a new wave of tokens that might start with MetaMask and OpenSea, two of the most well-known and well-used apps in crypto history.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">Metamask and Opensea airdrops are going to feed families (of down bad 2021 NFT traders)&mdash; Otto Suwen (@OttoSuwenNFT) <a href="https://twitter.com/OttoSuwenNFT/status/1968825178583859236?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 18, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



In cycles past, those tokens could reasonably double as a payment bridge within the app itself. We used to call these “utility tokens,” but if what Santi and Rob are saying is true, then stablecoins have rendered those well and truly redundant.&nbsp;



Governance has always been the fallback value prop for tokens that don’t really have a reason to exist other than as a conduit for capital (itself a function that has historically rubbed securities regulators the wrong way). The governance token thesis has so far not been overly compelling, and it’s worth unpacking that debate further in another email.



The most obvious function for these tokens will be to reward anyone who has used either app to any meaningful degree. Validators and stakers get paid tokens to secure a layer-1, so why wouldn’t users get paid to drive early adoption on an app?&nbsp;



One problem: Airdrops and token rewards accrue value to the user, not the token. The token becomes the product, and in a crypto economy dominated by stablecoins, such a flywheel quickly runs out of steam.



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



Get the news in your inbox. Explore Blockworks newsletters:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/the-breakdown">The Breakdown</a>: Decoding crypto and the markets. Daily.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/0xresearch">0xResearch</a>: Alpha in your inbox. Think like an analyst. </li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">Empire</a>: Crypto news and analysis to start your day.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forward-guidance">Forward Guidance</a>: The intersection of crypto, macro and policy.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/thedrop">The Drop</a>: Apps, games, memes and more.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/lightspeed">Lightspeed</a>: All things Solana.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/supply-shock">Supply Shock</a>: Bitcoin, bitcoin, bitcoin.</li>
</ul>

Empire Newsletter

Will stablecoins break the token flywheel?

This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



First, the really bullish stuff.



Pantera Capital managing partner Paul Veradittakit just put out a State of Crypto Venture Capital report with plenty to prick up your ears.



First, the industry is on pace to break 2021’s fundraising record of $29.17 billion. Crypto companies this year have raised over $16 billion — which is already more than the total deal value of 2024.



(BTW: Very cool that <a href="https://www.veradiverdict.com/p/e4aa8be1-52e2-477f-b687-7239522cde79?free_preview=false">Veradittakit’s report</a> is grounded in <a href="https://app.blockworksresearch.com/analytics/deal-flow">Blockworks Research data</a>, which covers all things deal flow, including fundraising, M&amp;A and debt financing.)



Veradittakit characterizes this year’s fundraising as a game-changer fueled by record M&amp;A and IPO activity.&nbsp;



He wrote: “2024 was a record year for acquisitions with over 100 mergers and acquisitions (M&amp;A) totaling $1.73 billion and 2025 is set to surpass 2024 in deal count. From January to July of this year it is already at 76 deals and $6.23 billion, which is 3.6× 2024’s full-year dollar volume and is on pace for 130 deals if the current run rate holds.”



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXeqPJRPFKp5dO52iaq-GCg7cW-EdajU8JDyCB3oqCbxT-b8Y8pJJlyP1mEHF4aLDtVTDKa0NBEzjd2XSWaP7g5Kcq7NF34XP9vkKSAFv99l46kgsvGZgtY2eCaJo27Fy5N6qfEs?key=VUdjECCR-IQTKGtKSIld6A" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Nice big green candles. Source: VeradiVerdict</figcaption></figure>



“The momentum in 2025 is less about unleashing pent‑up demand and more a sign of the industry’s natural maturation,” Veradittakit added.



Crypto IPO successes like Circle and Bullish, as well as others coming up (including Figure and BitGo) are making new entrants more comfortable with investing in the blockchain industry.&nbsp;



“This is a pattern seen in other major technological shifts, where a multi-decade build-out precedes explosive growth,” per Veradittakit.



Over on the Empire podcast, Rob Hadick, general partner at Dragonfly Capital, floated the notion that raises like M0’s $40 million and Rain’s $58 million Series Bs were probably the “tail end of the fervor” that came just before the Genius Act rolled out in June.



“I can tell you right now, there&#8217;s definitely some fatigue,” Hadick said.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<iframe loading="lazy" title="Stablecoins &amp; Prediction Markets, Nothing Else | Weekly Roundup" width="1024" height="576" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/XuiL_EyEiEc?feature=oembed" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" allowfullscreen></iframe>
</div></figure>



Interestingly, Hadick pointed out that the level of entrepreneurs that are now building in stablecoins is increasing.&nbsp;



One deal that Dragonfly is looking at right now involves founders that were executives at “some of the largest payment companies in the world and they just know how money flows — we haven’t seen that level of entrepreneur before.”



“And so I think we&#8217;ll see this kind of dip in the market, and then we&#8217;re going to see new novel, awesome entrepreneurs, an acceleration into maybe the end of the year [and] next year,” Hadick said.



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



Get the news in your inbox. Explore Blockworks newsletters:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/the-breakdown">The Breakdown</a>: Decoding crypto and the markets. Daily.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/0xresearch">0xResearch</a>: Alpha in your inbox. Think like an analyst. </li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">Empire</a>: Crypto news and analysis to start your day.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forward-guidance">Forward Guidance</a>: The intersection of crypto, macro and policy.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/thedrop">The Drop</a>: Apps, games, memes and more.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/lightspeed">Lightspeed</a>: All things Solana.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/supply-shock">Supply Shock</a>: Bitcoin, bitcoin, bitcoin.</li>
</ul>

Dragonfly Capital

Crypto industry on pace to break 2021 fundraising record

This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



Whether you’re bullish, bearish, or channeling some other animal spirit, you’re forgiven for feeling the pressure right now.



It’s been two weeks since bitcoin’s last all-time high and only four days since ether set a new price after almost three years.



Bitcoin could trend sideways and even downward for all anyone would care.&nbsp;



ETH sets the tempo for the foreseeable future. Scary stuff.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">top signals are just apparently no longer a thing we had ETF&#39;s &#8211; now we&#39;re trading higher we had Trump election &#8211; now we&#39;re higher we had Trump token &#8211; now we&#39;re higher we had eth volumes flip btc volumes for over a month straight &#8211; now we&#39;re higher now we&#39;re issuing GDP…&mdash; merp (@0xMerp) <a href="https://twitter.com/0xMerp/status/1960790841632678300?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 27, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">This is good for ETH</figcaption></figure>



Before we zoom in on ETH, let&#8217;s see the momentum it&#8217;s inherited from bitcoin.



The chart below plots every bitcoin bull market together, as if they all started on the same day. Green dots point to cycle peaks, and each bull phase starts at the previous bear market’s lowest price.



By these (very basic) rules, bitcoin has now been on a bull market for 1,023 days — 2.8 years.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXeVutT6n0LXr1uWqXJU0OboUaz2fRFwjZJqXtcC0HENCgLG4oAKSsHolLUIJrdkNCU0zguJQZC68hI7ff6LTnJQQyURFPq45JabxJfjyY7ExFiZPe8k8Q4YiAVCd26VTpWE2PM-og?key=LrYZb3WcbLF2uZa5P-FQPg" alt=""/></figure>



If the bitcoin top is not yet in, then bitcoin is on track to soon enter its longest bull market on record. It took another 40 days or so from here for bitcoin to reach its November 2021 peak.



Returns so far are about what you would expect, considering how large the market cap of bitcoin has grown.&nbsp;



At this point in the past two cycles, bitcoin had posted up to 100x and around 21x, respectively.&nbsp;



Two weeks ago, when bitcoin hit $124,100, that was the equivalent of about a 7x from the late 2022 bottom.



Here’s the same chart, but for ETH.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXev3LTC8Ptqp59Pvpz7CUbYIPhy6ApuYeCrJecljkR2w2zTAr-m7mybN7-YPtNYthREp0I4y5F64s7Hp210jMzzSp2f929SXUGmifQqItECtyVmdOd-YtvYU6cCRL4mcL6WFo9IZg?key=LrYZb3WcbLF2uZa5P-FQPg" alt=""/></figure>



It’s similar. But technically, ETH has now entered its longest bull market on record — or in other words, this all-time high took longer than ever before



What’s glaring is that ETH’s cycle returns are tracking far below the previous bull market.&nbsp;



Perhaps Solana has something to do with that, considering bitcoin has no analogous direct rival.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">Yesterday, we published our note on the top holders of Ethereum ETFs. Advisors are dominating the known holders and have pulled away from Hedge Funds. <a href="https://t.co/qvP6ZGN3VI">pic.twitter.com/qvP6ZGN3VI</a>&mdash; James Seyffart (@JSeyff) <a href="https://twitter.com/JSeyff/status/1960726566406651920?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 27, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">The advisoooors have done something</figcaption></figure>



But if it’s true that ETH is the thermometer for where crypto is headed for the next year, year and a half, then the pink line will need to catch up to the purple line, fast.



Updated 8/28/2025 at 10:07 a.m. ET: ETH’s cycle returns and length have been corrected.



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



Get the news in your inbox. Explore Blockworks newsletters:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/the-breakdown">The Breakdown</a>: Decoding crypto and the markets. Daily.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/0xresearch">0xResearch</a>: Alpha in your inbox. Think like an analyst. </li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">Empire</a>: Crypto news and analysis to start your day.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forward-guidance">Forward Guidance</a>: The intersection of crypto, macro and policy.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/thedrop">The Drop</a>: Apps, games, memes and more.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/lightspeed">Lightspeed</a>: All things Solana.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/supply-shock">Supply Shock</a>: Bitcoin, bitcoin, bitcoin.</li>
</ul>

ETH poised to set tempo for the rest of the bull run

This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



Like all good things, it turns out that killer apps come in threes.



Polymarket, Hyperliquid, pump.fun. These are the voyages of modern-day crypto enterprise.



And before you tell me that stablecoins are crypto’s fourth killer app, thereby ruining this airtight metaphor: No.&nbsp;



Stablecoins are a tool. Wallets are apps (but only barely). I will die on this hill.



For the sake of being pedantic, let’s separate Circle, with its <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/circle-ipo-price-execution-stablecoins">wildly successful IPO</a>, into a separate category: “fintech on the blockchain.”



There’s suddenly no question that Polymarket, Hyperliquid and pump.fun are the sole victors of this cycle.&nbsp;



Hyperliquid won perps, pump.fun won memecoins (although Bonk.fun <a href="https://app.blockworksresearch.com/analytics/launchpads">made it close</a>), and Polymarket won the concept of betting on random stuff. Polymarket had its <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/polymarket-performs-smoothly-on-election-day">breakthrough moment</a> during the US election, so it tracks that Donald Trump Jr’s 1789 Capital recent investment has cemented its status.&nbsp;



CNBC <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/26/polymarket-secures-investment-from-trump-jr-backed-1789-capital.html">reports</a> the deal ranged in the double-digit millions, with Don Jr. also joining the firm’s advisory board.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">Pleased to announce that my fund <a href="https://twitter.com/1789Capital?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@1789capital</a> has invested in <a href="https://twitter.com/Polymarket?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Polymarket</a> and that I will be joining the team as a Strategic Advisor. Prediction markets have completely changed the way people follow the news. I&#39;m proud to support the industry and look forward to helping… <a href="https://t.co/C3QlMEKQFe">https://t.co/C3QlMEKQFe</a>&mdash; Donald Trump Jr. (@DonaldJTrumpJr) <a href="https://twitter.com/DonaldJTrumpJr/status/1960367380724351416?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 26, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



A longstanding criticism of the crypto space is that it’s too insular. That it’s all decentralized infrastructure for degenerate gambling apps, in one form or another. Crypto’s endless servicing of speculation largely overshadows the utility of peer-to-peer payments and freely accessible tokenized dollars.



Now, I don’t agree with that summation, but it exists, persistently so. And the fact that the current breakthrough apps express different degrees of degeneracy won’t do much to change that perception — Hyperliquid with its leverage of up to 40x; pump.fun with its gamified memecoin launches; Polymarket with its pop-culture wagering.



I have a theory that crypto is, for the most part, years ahead of the mainstream. Crypto knew that blockchain-powered prediction markets were interesting seven years ago, when Augur launched on Ethereum in 2018, causing <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/welcome-augur-cryptocurrency-death-market-where-you-can-bet-donald-trump-1043571">moral panic</a> over the potential for assassination markets and so on.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">Not a very consequential thing, but kinda funny: a Polymarket user named &quot;romanticpaul&quot; (yes, his real username) started aggressively buying Taylor Swift to be engaged starting yesterday afternoon around 3pm. He nearly doubled the price from a 25% chance (this year) to 45%. You… <a href="https://t.co/IXVRqj0eB6">pic.twitter.com/IXVRqj0eB6</a>&mdash; Domer❤️‍🔥 (@Domahhhh) <a href="https://twitter.com/Domahhhh/status/1960394729176105077?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 26, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



Do we need to bet on celebrity romance? No. Is it fun? Yes.



Bookies have obviously been taking bets on obscure stuff like the next James Bond or celebrity deaths long before crypto. But Augur, Polymarket and all the others have added immediacy to the mix — letting the public open the markets rather than the bookies themselves.&nbsp;



Anyone paying attention to sports betting would know that gambling on anything and everything would be the next evolution. And perhaps Bored Apes re-primed the normie-sphere for its next big arbitrary collectible in <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/labubus-succeeded-nfts-failed">Labubus</a>, some three decades after Tomagotchis and Beanie Babies ran wild.



With this in mind, 1789 Capital’s bet is clearly a solid one, even if Polymarket is what Russ Hanneman would call “<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BzAdXyPYKQo">pre-revenue</a>,” in that it doesn’t collect any fees (yet), apparently subsisting only on venture capital money like the cash just raised from Don Jr, now amounting to hundreds of millions of dollars.



And for all of its pesky <a href="https://www.dlnews.com/articles/people-culture/bettors-say-some-polymarket-prediction-outcomes-are-gamed/">problems</a> with market resolutions, it’s certainly fitting that a crypto-native outfit in Polymarket could be a primary venue for mainstream degeneracy moving forward.&nbsp;



It all begs the question: Is there more money to be made by looking outward from crypto rather than inward, like Hyperliquid and pump.fun?&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXexJwFpr4mDV_hj8_jhEL05r_khSbMNJg33Ox-udU4moa1kZo3dmECJs1wqMy0m11gEwlc8fLQRmd0mcbCDTzN1va-qmcrjoLUq5b6WFeBX2hoqmFUFstbVjOxe4C1s5bzw3O7Szw?key=cfCdTcmo1Yyyag1GX4K42Q" alt=""/></figure>



Hyperliquid has averaged more than $55 million onchain monthly revenue over the past six months and pump.fun nearly $33 million, per <a href="https://app.blockworksresearch.com/analytics/application-comparison">Blockworks Research</a> data.&nbsp;



That’s far below a mainstream app like <a href="https://ir.roblox.com/news/news-details/2025/Roblox-Reports-Second-Quarter-2025-Financial-Results/default.aspx">Roblox</a> (currently about $360 million per month), but about in line with <a href="https://www.businessofapps.com/data/discord-statistics/">Discord</a> (around $50 million per month in 2023). Polymarket has otherwise seen over $1 billion in monthly trading volume for three months running, and is on track for a fourth in August. A hypothetical 5% fee would give it $50 million in monthly revenue right away, although perhaps a withdrawal fee might be easier to stomach.



In any case, it’s easy to make the argument that crypto and blockchain are worthwhile regardless of whether they only ever amount to reconstructing the traditional financial system to be more transparent and trustless, outside of the penchant for gambling.&nbsp;



But Polymarket is getting close to crossing the culture chasm in a way that Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana never have. Those may be household names, but they’re still “crypto.”&nbsp;



Polymarket might just be “Polymarket.”



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



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<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/the-breakdown">The Breakdown</a>: Decoding crypto and the markets. Daily.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/0xresearch">0xResearch</a>: Alpha in your inbox. Think like an analyst. </li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">Empire</a>: Crypto news and analysis to start your day.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forward-guidance">Forward Guidance</a>: The intersection of crypto, macro and policy.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/thedrop">The Drop</a>: Apps, games, memes and more.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/lightspeed">Lightspeed</a>: All things Solana.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/supply-shock">Supply Shock</a>: Bitcoin, bitcoin, bitcoin.</li>
</ul>

dApps

Polymarket is close to crossing the culture chasm

This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



It’s certainly possible to be in crypto for the tech.&nbsp;



In fact, being in it for the tech — I mean, really in it for the tech; digital nation states on blockchain rails, smart cities, and the tokenization of all things — is the most effective path to alpha bull status.



John McAfee: big tech guy. Michael Saylor: huge on the tech. Same with Tim Draper, Marc Andreessen, Brian Armstrong and Balaji Srinivasan. And who’s been more bullish than them?



Fundstrat’s Tom Lee. That’s who.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">Mark ⁦<a href="https://twitter.com/MarkNewtonCMT?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@MarkNewtonCMT</a>⁩ again at it. ➡️Calling ETH bottom to happen in next few hours ⁦<a href="https://twitter.com/fs_insight?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@fs_insight</a>⁩ ⁦<a href="https://twitter.com/FundstratCap?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@FundstratCap</a>⁩ Tickers: <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%24BMNR&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">$BMNR</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%24GRNY&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">$GRNY</a> <a href="https://t.co/038efU7cZH">pic.twitter.com/038efU7cZH</a>&mdash; Thomas (Tom) Lee (not drummer) FSInsight.com (@fundstrat) <a href="https://twitter.com/fundstrat/status/1960147287491154132?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 26, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Lee has, as of 9:08 p.m. yesterday, called the ETH bottom — to happen right about now.</figcaption></figure>



Lee has actually been bullish longer than almost anyone still active today.



As far as I can tell, his first public predictions for crypto came in mid-2017. Bitcoin’s price had more than doubled in the first six months of the year, to $2,500, leading Lee to call bitcoin’s future price on at least 10 different occasions in the 10 months ending May 2018.&nbsp;



His first prediction actually came true. “Cryptocurrencies are cannibalizing demand for gold,” Lee <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/bitcoin-price-ethereum-cannibalizing-gold-2017-7">wrote</a> to Fundstrat clients eight years ago, in 2017, when bitcoin was at $2,607. &#8220;Bitcoin is arguably becoming a scarcer store of value. Investors need to identify strategies to leverage this potential rise in cryptocurrencies.&#8221;



Base case: bitcoin would reach $20,000 by 2022. Nearly 10x.&nbsp;



Bull case: $55,000 by 2022. A 22x in five years.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXd7vSXENdtL86bYIniWmAwc11OjQBVCy7UqTTWf_b8-5h_ZGkjfm8QHAtdVrKs2xdZ8TUYaW_vMMxziQX3y8tnwCSFHczpA80kYvHo_u8za6_IbXOyerUJWCOtKnnxUHlPsvmcb?key=En_UORTZOH0v8ML2nnDsbg" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">This handy graphic of bitcoin scarcity was included in Lee’s note.</figcaption></figure>



Lee was exactly right. Bitcoin crossed $55,000 for the first time in February 2021, a little earlier than expected, and topped out nine months later beyond $69,000.



What makes things complicated is that Lee kept making predictions after that first banger.&nbsp;



Some were ultimately correct, but too low or too early; others didn’t eventuate in the way he envisioned (like the rally around CoinDesk’s Consensus 2018 conference that <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-18/crypto-bull-tom-lee-owns-up-after-bitcoin-prediction-goes-awry">never came</a>, or that bitcoin never reached $25,000 in 2018, as <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/tom-lee-holds-to-25000-bitcoin-price-prediction-cites-three-supporting-factors">predicted</a> multiple times in the first half of the year).



<figure class="wp-block-image is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXcT1NkrAQrhcpn7xR5W0gM7s8dUG0cwdMLst9FkWGUmg1aSl7Zxq4VqqDGHCXzcNaWXnxyxoFWvjYwDyDwLc-iImsWcaPdV8vTZ-G_23BivqOvL_uy4SaOmQ0Oio4w3QXSBwIQy?key=En_UORTZOH0v8ML2nnDsbg" alt="" style="width:642px;height:auto"/></figure>



Still, there were a few other gems. In January 2018, he <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-18/bitcoin-bull-tom-lee-goes-hyperbolic-on-latest-price-forecast">said</a> that bitcoin could reach $125,000 by 2022 (which it did, only three years after the fact).



At the end of 2020, he <a href="https://x.com/CNBCFastMoney/status/1344407640873562119">foretold</a> bitcoin trading between $100,000 and $150,000 by the start of 2025, which, all things considered, wasn&#8217;t too far off.



But if the worst criticism of Lee’s calls are that they’re too early, then you’ll dig his most recent ones: $200,000 to $250,000 <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-prediction-250k-still-possible-fundstrat-tom-lee">possible</a> in 2025 (from three weeks ago) and more than $1 million in the next few years.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">Absolutely unprecedented. Tom Lee has acquired almost $10 billion ETH over the past 50 days. Over 1.7m ETH. 1.4% of all ETH supply. If Tom gets to his 5% target and ETH goes above $12k Bitmine would be larger than Microstrategy. <a href="https://t.co/DpIZv55DBC">pic.twitter.com/DpIZv55DBC</a>&mdash; RYAN SΞAN ADAMS &#8211; rsa.eth 🦄 (@RyanSAdams) <a href="https://twitter.com/RyanSAdams/status/1960030779267760133?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 25, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



Not bullish enough? You might recall that Lee recently made his first publicly-reported ETH prediction, apparently ever, only about a month after he was <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/eth-treasury-companies-growth">appointed</a> chairman of BitMine, which has its own Ethereum-focused treasury acquisition plan.&nbsp;



Lee’s call: Between $15,000 and $16,000 per ETH is possible by the end of the year, which would be a 3x from here.



So, maybe add on a few more years from that, just to be safe.



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Bitcoin

The worst and best part of Tom Lee’s predictions: they’re too early

This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



Last week, we spent some time exploring what the rest of the cycle might look like.&nbsp;



Another reason that this time is different: Crypto has never been in a bull market with an agreeable SEC.



How wild this cycle might’ve looked without Gensler at the helm for the first half.



Don’t get me wrong — having a securities regulator back off on stuff like ETFs (bonus points for in-kind redemptions), liquid staking and staking-as-a-service is grand.&nbsp;



But ICOs are the Holy Grail for the crypto space. The job’s not finished until they’re back.&nbsp;



Hester Peirce, the SEC Commissioner who was earlier to crypto than practically anyone at the agency, is acutely aware that financial accessibility is at the heart of what makes crypto “crypto.”



“Obviously I’m someone who believes very strongly in the dispersion of knowledge across society, and in the fundamental value of every human being, and the ability of every human being to contribute something unique to society. And I think that concept really links up very well with crypto,” Peirce told Yano on today’s Empire podcast.



“[Crypto] is trying to bring the ability of people to engage with one another, peer to peer, and really to draw on people who society might before have shut out. If you have a centralized intermediary, what happens is that that intermediary — either of its own accord or because the government tells it to do so — shuts certain people out.”



We already know that the answer is open-source protocols that “anyone can access and use on the same terms as everyone else,” as Peirce put it. And we already have them.&nbsp;



Still, freedom of access does not come with freedom of consequences for offering token sales to US investors. At least, until the SEC finalizes a clear framework for token sales.&nbsp;



“I mean, the goal is to get a framework in place that would allow people to do ICOs, to do airdrops, in a way that they understood was compliant with the securities laws, and then I think you would see that kind of thing happening here, so that certainly is why we’re working expeditiously to try to get something done,” Peirce said.



<iframe loading="lazy" width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/2OFzH92_DwI?si=VBcXTZ4iGBkbbR0Z" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" allowfullscreen></iframe>







OK, but what will that framework look like? Crypto Mom didn’t go into detail, but some of her comments earlier on in the podcast might hint towards where it’s going:



“The definition of ‘security’ is very broad. We think often of just stocks and bonds, but you also have investment contracts which are intended to capture anything where someone says, ‘Hey, give me some of your money. I&#8217;ll take it, pool it with other people&#8217;s money. You don&#8217;t have to do anything. I&#8217;ll do all the work and you&#8217;ll get profits based on the work that I do.’



“That&#8217;s something that investment contracts were designed to capture. And that&#8217;s how a lot of these token-distribution events look an awful lot like investment contract transactions. And so trying to figure out: ‘Okay, then, the token was sold as part of that transaction, but it doesn&#8217;t always carry that investment contract with it. How do we think about how long the obligations of the person selling the token should last to the people buying it?’ That&#8217;s really what we&#8217;re wrestling through.”



To me, the most telling part was that Peirce zoomed in on the SEC’s mandate to capture “the capital-raising transaction” when regulating digital assets, “but not saddling the token with securities laws for the rest of its life.”



Compare that with recent comments from SEC chair Paul Atkins, when he said that “there are very few, in my mind, tokens that are securities, but it depends on what’s the package around it and how that’s being sold.”



Something tells me that Atkins might consider many more tokens to be securities had the low-float airdrop meta never taken hold — and those airdrops were ICOs instead.&nbsp;



At this point, it could be another few years until token launches are considered safe enough to really proliferate. Just in time for the next bull market, I guess.



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<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/lightspeed">Lightspeed</a>: All things Solana.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/supply-shock">Supply Shock</a>: Bitcoin, bitcoin, bitcoin.</li>
</ul>

Hester Peirce on the SEC’s next moves in crypto

This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



Kanye did it. He launched a memecoin on Solana.



Some say this is the top signal for which we’ve been waiting, making Yeezy the Lisan al-Gaib of bears.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full is-resized"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="730" height="376" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/yzy.png" alt="" class="wp-image-106383" style="width:481px;height:auto" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/yzy.png?w=730 730w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/yzy.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/yzy.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/yzy.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/yzy.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/yzy.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 730px) 100vw, 730px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption"><a href="https://x.com/kanyewest/status/1958346810801697237">Source</a></figcaption></figure>



Maybe so. Although the top signals were much, much louder last time around.



For one thing, Yeezy has fallen off. I’m not sure YZY on Meteora in 2025 will ever have the same impact as if it was sold at the height of the Yeezy brand circa 2020.



Still, I spent my morning going over archives of crypto headlines from the tail-end of the monster 2021 bull market.



What were the signs that crypto would peak at a $3-trillion market cap in the second week of November?&nbsp;



Any top signal would need to come within six months of that cycle peak, I decided. You probably remember that 2021 saw two major tops, in May and November, so really any signal that came before May would’ve ultimately pointed to much higher prices (making them bullish signals).



And yeah, hindsight is 20/20. But tell me that these headlines weren’t screaming that a top was soon near.



“<a href="https://blockworks.co/news/ftx-closes-900m-series-b-round-valuing-exchange-at-18b">FTX Closes $900M Series B Round Valuing Exchange at $18B</a>” — July 20, 2021 (yes, that’s a $900-million raise).



“Tim Berners-Lee sells web source code NFT for $5.4m” — June 30, 2021 (132 days until top).



“CityCoins Community Officially Launches with MiamiCoin, Its First City-Based Token” — August 3, 2021 (remember these?)



“El Salvador buys bitcoin as the digital currency becomes legal tender” — September 6, 2021.



“OpenSea admits insider trading of NFTs it promoted” — September 16, 2021 (arguably the most compelling yet).



“China declares all crypto-currency transactions illegal” — September 2, 2021 (68 days until top).



“<a href="https://blockworks.co/news/coinbases-new-direct-deposit-feature-allows-users-to-get-paychecks-in-crypto">Coinbase’s New Direct Deposit Feature Allows Users to Get Paychecks in Crypto</a>” — September 27, 2021.



“TikTok Is Auctioning Its NFT Collection Featuring Lil Nas X, Grimes, Bella Poarch, More” — October 1, 2021 (NFT = Nearly Freakin’ Top).



“<a href="https://blockworks.co/news/celsius-valued-at-3-25b-after-400m-raise-amid-regulatory-headwinds">Celsius Valued at $3.25B After $400M Raise Amid Regulatory Headwinds</a>” — October 12, 2021 (narrator: Celsius would file for bankruptcy nine months later and its CEO would eventually be sentenced to 12 years’ prison for fraud).



“Bahamas-based crypto exchange FTX raises a $420.69M Series B-1 at a $25B valuation from 69 investors, including BlackRock and Tiger Global” — October 21, 2021 (I mean, this one was a doozy, especially paired with the Celsius saga).



“Facebook Changes Company Name to Meta in Focus on Metaverse” — October 28, 2021 (12 days until top).



“Incoming NYC Mayor Eric Adams: Pay Me In Bitcoin” — November 4, 2021.



“<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/05/technology/nft-nyc-metaverse.html">Crypto Is Cool. Now Get on the Yacht</a>” — November 5, 2021 (all about NFT.NYC, the New York conference that attracted a record 5,000 attendees just four days before the top).



“About 5% of Sotheby’s, Christie’s Contemporary Art Auctions Are NFTs” — November 8, 2021 (one day before the top).



To cap it off, Coinbase’s Q3 earnings were even <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/coinbase-reports-q3-net-revenue-dropped-39-to-1-234b">released</a> on the exact day that crypto peaked. Revenue had dropped 39%, from $2 billion to just over $1.2 billion, lower than estimates, and the number of monthly transacting users dipped 16%. COIN tanked 12% in postmarket trading as a result.



So, does a lame ChatGPT 5 release, a new SPAC from Chamath, Meta hiring freeze and a memecoin from washed entertainer stack up to this monumental run of headlines? Not really.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">The top signals rolling in fast. Chamath SPAC, Meta hiring freeze, OpenAI admitting GPT-5 is a “miss”, Kanye coin. All in 48h. <a href="https://t.co/qJdmpnzS8S">https://t.co/qJdmpnzS8S</a>&mdash; Adam Cochran (adamscochran.eth) (@adamscochran) <a href="https://twitter.com/adamscochran/status/1958353499848147190?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 21, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



But then again, it may be another cycle or two before crypto runs back its cultural significance, as it was in 2021. The signals might be quieter this time around.



Read More: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/paris-hilton-bitcoin-celebrity-indicators">Was Katy Perry a top signal in 2022?</a>



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<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">Empire</a>: Crypto news and analysis to start your day.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forward-guidance">Forward Guidance</a>: The intersection of crypto, macro and policy.</li>



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<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/lightspeed">Lightspeed</a>: All things Solana.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/supply-shock">Supply Shock</a>: Bitcoin, bitcoin, bitcoin.</li>
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If Kanye’s memecoin is a top signal, then crypto has fallen off

For savvy degens who want to think like researchers and analysts, from Blockworks Research

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If you’re waiting for the conversation to shift away from Digital Asset Treasury companies, prepare to wait longer. Same goes for those anticipating a cascade of implosions.



“ You probably end up having an evolution of these DATs, where instead of just putting a one-to-one token in it, DATs basically become this vehicle through which capital ends up getting mobilized in the TradFi world and then deployed onchain at scale,” Yano posited on today’s Empire podcast to Ethena Labs CEO Guy Young.



With that in mind, Yano wondered whether the over-leveraged blowups at the end of 2021 and into 2022 has Young scared of a redux.



In the cases where the carry trade is collateralized one-to-one with the target asset — for example, raising $5 billion to deploy $5 billion — the stablecoin founder doesn’t see cause for concern.



<iframe loading="lazy" width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/NrIfwXyVtWQ?si=-c9z_b39j_eV-uPQ" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" allowfullscreen></iframe>







“I think the risk obviously comes if you start to lever up all of the underlying assets and you&#8217;re, you know, 2x long ETH within the vehicle itself, and then these things start getting liquidated. Obviously that becomes a bit more challenging,” Young said.



“I think the one thing that&#8217;s good is that they&#8217;re all much more transparent vehicles, right? Like, we couldn&#8217;t really see into the balance sheets of all of the entities that blew up last cycle, while here, you actually have disclosure requirements to be showing to the market. So anyone who&#8217;s reading those documents will be well aware of how much leverage there actually is.”



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DATs

Shifts in strategy, increased transparency may help DATs evolve

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Last week, I <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/polymarket-culture-chasm">wrote about</a> the three killer-est apps of the cycle: Polymarket, Hyperliquid, pump.fun.



Notice that none of them is on Base.



Base has now had two shots at facilitating a potential killer crypto app already this cycle: AI agent launchpad Virtuals Protocol, the “Wall Street for AI Agents,” and now social media platform Zora, with the latter seeing two decent runs in the past 18 months.



Between December 2024 and January 2025 — peak Truth Terminal hype — Virtuals generated almost $11 million in net revenue, according to <a href="https://app.blockworksresearch.com/analytics/virtuals">Blockworks Research data</a>, during which time more than 13,000 different AI agents were tokenized.&nbsp;



Last month: $105,000 revenue; 151 agents launched, even after Virtuals expanded beyond Base to Solana earlier this year.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1124" height="624" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-12.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-107039" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-12.png?w=1124 1124w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-12.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-12.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-12.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-12.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-12.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-12.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-12.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1124px) 100vw, 1124px" /></figure>



Zora, which supports creator coins and turns every post into a tradable coin, has otherwise arrived at a key inflection point.&nbsp;



On one hand, August was a record month for <a href="https://app.blockworksresearch.com/analytics/zora?dashboard=94">Zora protocol revenue</a>, reaching $1.3 million, and number of posts, with 1.1 million pieces of content tokenized. But on the weekly scale, revenue has fallen by more than half and stayed there for the past fortnight running, with only $20,000 per day a regular occurrence right now.



The total number of posting accounts has also dropped to about 8,000 per day, down 60% from an August 14 peak of 21,000.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1124" height="624" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-11.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-107038" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-11.png?w=1124 1124w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-11.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-11.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-11.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-11.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-11.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-11.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-11.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1124px) 100vw, 1124px" /></figure>



Of course, it’s too early to call time on Zora, and maybe these ups and downs will become mere blips on the path to mass adoption by content creators and consumers.



It’s more likely that both Zora and Virtuals have simply run headfirst into the same wall: There’s just not enough people in crypto who want to do more than trade on exchanges to consistently drive growth.



To be clear: Trading apps are apps too. With that in mind, Base does have a relatively popular app in Aerodrome, the AMM that’s pulling in anywhere from two-thirds to three-quarters of total app revenue on Base, per <a href="https://app.blockworksresearch.com/analytics/base?dashboard=62">BWR data</a>.



That’s around $15 million last month, which is decent but less than half the <a href="https://app.blockworksresearch.com/analytics/pumpfun">revenue made by pump.fun</a>. It’s enough to place in first place when it comes to Ethereum <a href="https://blockworks.co/tag/layer-2-2">layer-2s</a>, with about 40% of all <a href="https://app.blockworksresearch.com/analytics/ethereum?dashboard=77">blobs posted to Ethereum</a> mainnet coming from Base right now.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1124" height="624" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-10.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-107037" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-10.png?w=1124 1124w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-10.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-10.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-10.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-10.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-10.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-10.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-10.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1124px) 100vw, 1124px" /></figure>



However, to the outside world, DEXs, AMMs, launchpads and so on are not “apps” in the traditional sense. Which, when we’re discussing heady concepts like massive mainstream adoption and widespread tokenization, is about all that really matters.



To the general public, an app needs to serve a purpose other than financial speculation, else it’s just a gaming venue in the minds of many and no different than PokerStars or DraftKings. Think Uber, AirBnB, Spotify, MyFitnessPal, Instagram, TikTok and Tinder, more than Robinhood and Trade Republic.



This dichotomy is why even Polymarket transcending the culture chasm might not be particularly satisfying, at least in a holistic sense.&nbsp;



While there’s certainly room for prediction markets to serve as “truth oracles” in our inevitable hyperfinancialized, media-minimized future, for now Polymarket is just a venue for betting on stuff happening in the culture. Markets related to politics attract about <a href="https://app.blockworksresearch.com/analytics/polymarket?dashboard=53">one-third of all open interest</a> right now, followed by markets related to crypto prices (15%) and sports (12%).



Zora and Virtuals are indeed cool in their own ways. Helping creators to monetize their work and build fan bases with crypto is compelling, and has been for the better part of a decade, dating right back to Steemit. And perhaps AI agents will indeed be the eventual gateway for regular humans to interact with blockchain protocols — why not gain exposure to the most popular ones?



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">if someone tells you creator coins on <a href="https://twitter.com/zora?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@zora</a> are &quot;just a memecoin&quot; with no intrinsic value, they are either willfully misleading you or haven&#39;t taken 2 minutes to learn each post is a micromarket that drives value back to the creator coin &#8211; the more viral content, the more value&mdash; jesse.base.eth (@jessepollak) <a href="https://twitter.com/jessepollak/status/1959807771144257925?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 25, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



Underneath all the branding and presentation, however, Zora and Virtuals are still launchpads, and generously assuming that active addresses translate to active users apparently means there are only at most 20,000 or so people in crypto today willing to experiment with them (and slog through the often tricky EVM user experience, at least).



That’s with the indirect support of Coinbase, the closest thing crypto has to a majorly influential corporate powerhouse.



Maybe next cycle, there will be 50,000 willing participants. But I have a feeling the outside world won’t be convinced.&nbsp;



In the crypto space, tokenization for tokenization’s sake makes sense — everything that can be digitally represented is technically valuable. And depending on how broad your definition of value, intrinsically so.&nbsp;



The real question is thus: to whom, and for how long?



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Base

Crypto needs more than launchpads for mass adoption

This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



The “<a href="https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/its-all-so-tiresome">it’s all so tiresome</a>” meme also comes to mind. Except the context surrounding the original scene doesn’t really apply. Unlike in the Empire of Dust documentary, there are lots of people doing great work in crypto, tirelessly so, and there’s plenty about the state of blockchain development to be excited about.



Instead, crypto is psychological torture in the same way that medieval tickling might be. In the early 16th century, the Italian monk Franciscus Brunus de San Severino described a dastardly practice known as the goat’s tongue, whereby townspeople would coat the feet of a criminal locked up in the stocks with salt. A goat would then lick the salt off the feet while commoners tickled them with feathers.



It’s not clear whether the goat’s tongue was actually a real punishment. But I imagine that it’s familiar to anyone who is unfortunate enough to be unceremoniously pulled towards crypto for one reason or another, whether it’s interest, work, curiosity, academics or simply the potential to make serious money.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1216" height="1082" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-3.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-106950" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-3.png?w=1216 1216w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-3.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-3.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-3.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-3.png?w=289 289w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-3.png?w=293 293w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-3.png?w=246 246w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-3.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1216px) 100vw, 1216px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">A <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tickle_torture#/media/File:Rothenburg_Germany_Torture_Museum_(4139740862).jpg">painting</a> at the criminal museum in Rothenburg, depicting the dreaded goat’s tongue</figcaption></figure>



<a href="https://x.com/post_polar_">Paul J. Dylan-Ennis</a> in 2021 <a href="https://www.coindesk.com/business/2021/11/10/the-trash-moat-when-the-media-lies-about-crypto">described</a> crypto as a world surrounded by a trash moat of information — a barrier of toxic clickbait sludge that regular people must wade through to reach anything worthwhile:



“What happens in the trash moat rarely reaches the shores of mainstream crypto. It occurs in the sweet spot just beyond the attention of the clued-in observer, who is typically focused on high-minded talk of regulation, venture capital funding and whatever is currently hot, like NFTs, and yet it happens right there in public.”



The tickling torture described by our monk Franciscus Brunus would certainly feel a lot like the tide of that trash moat ripping past my ankles while I soak my feet on the shore.



Objectively, the details surrounding World Liberty Financial, a project for <a href="https://worldlibertyfinancial.com/about">banking the unbanked</a>, are hilarious and excruciatingly painful, all at the same time.&nbsp;



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>The white paper is really a “<a href="https://static.worldlibertyfinancial.com/docs/intl/gold-paper.pdf">gold paper</a>.”</li>



<li>President Trump is “Co-Founder Emeritus,” and his face is all over the gold paper.</li>



<li>There is no live app, but the WLFI token has a $6.6-billion market cap and a $24-billion FDV.</li>



<li>Justin Sun was WLFI’s largest backer and now <a href="https://x.com/arkham/status/1962532967437242537">holds</a> more than 3% of the circulating supply.</li>



<li>WLFI is a governance token with a buy-back-and-burn strategy. Large holders, including a firm linked to the Trump family, decide when token allocations are unlocked and can be sold.</li>



<li>Binance <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2025-07-11/trump-s-crypto-link-with-binance-raises-conflict-of-interest-questions">reportedly</a> wrote the smart contract for USD1, a stablecoin in the World Liberty Financial universe, as CZ seeks a pardon (CZ denies Binance’s involvement).</li>



<li>The Trump family is technically $5 billion richer thanks to their stake in WLFI, per <a href="https://www.wsj.com/finance/currencies/trump-family-amasses-6-billion-fortune-after-crypto-launch-567faec5">WSJ</a>, making their crypto investments more valuable than their real estate.</li>
</ul>



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1230" height="946" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-4.png?w=1024&amp;h=1024" alt="" class="wp-image-106951" style="width:716px;height:auto" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-4.png?w=1230 1230w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-4.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-4.png?w=1024 1024w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-4.png?w=768 768w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-4.png?w=334 334w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-4.png?w=339 339w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-4.png?w=285 285w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/image-4.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1230px) 100vw, 1230px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">WLFI’s token claim temporarily pushed<a href="https://blockworks.co/news/wlfi-claim-eth-gas"> gas fees over $100</a> yesterday. Meanwhile, 26% of WLFI’s first-day trading volume occurred on Binance, with more spread across other offshore exchanges including Bybit, Upbit, MEXC and others. Uniswap contributed around 3%. (H/T: <a href="https://x.com/rod_data">Rod</a>, Blockworks Research analyst).</figcaption></figure>



We could unpack and debate the finer points of WLFI’s tokenomics all day. Perhaps at the end of it, we’d decide whether World Liberty Financial is a net positive for the crypto space, whatever that might mean. I’m just not sure it will matter anymore.&nbsp;



Those of us who have learned how to tune out the trash moat — the constant low quality noise sloshing around crypto — may find it vastly more difficult to do so from here. At least, until a lengthy bear market cleanses the waters once again.



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