Jason Yanowitz

Santiago Santos

David Canellis

Fundamental insights and behind the scenes perspectives from the industry’s key operators and innovators

Empire

Gm! In this episode, Arjun Sethi, Co-CEO of Kraken, joins Yano to dive into how his background in tech, growth and IPOs makes him the perfect candidate to join Kraken and take the company to the next level. Arjun dives into how his compensation plan and overall approach to Kraken paves the way for a decade long growth trajectory that will take Kraken global and one of the most recognized brands in crypto for retail, traders and beyond. 
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Start your day with crypto news, analysis and data from David Canellis. 
Subscribe to the Empire newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire?utm_source=podcasts
--
Follow Arjun: https://x.com/arjunsethi
Follow Jason: https://x.com/JasonYanowitz
Follow Empire: https://twitter.com/theempirepod
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Join the Empire Telegram: https://t.me/+CaCYvTOB4Eg1OWJh
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Katana is a DeFi-first chain built for deep liquidity and high yield. No empty emissions, just real yield and sequencer fees routed back to DeFi users. 

Pre-deposit now: Earn high APRs with Turtle Club [https://app.turtle.club/campaigns/katana] or spin the wheel with Katana Krates [https://app.katana.network/krates]
--
Is your treasury losing value to inflation? Learn how to make digital assets like ETH and SOL productive with uncorrelated, protocol-driven staking rewards. A new report from Liquid Collective and EigenCloud outlines a practical guide for CFOs to integrate institutional-grade staking and restaking.

Read The Productive Treasury Report: https://liquidcollective.io/corporate-treasury-staking/
--
GEODNET is the world’s largest RTK network, delivering real-time, centimeter-level precision for drones, robots, farmers, and first responders. Recognized by the U.S. Congress, this blockchain-powered network supports mission-critical applications across a wide range of industries. 

Discover how GEODNET is changing the world: [https://geodnet.com]
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(00:00) Intro
(01:10) Arjun’s Background
(14:08) Culture + Product Velocity
(16:45) Arjun’s Incentives
(18:03) Ads (Katana)
(18:50) 1st month at kraken
(21:56) Prioritizing What To Build
(26:00) Future Onchain Trading
(31:20) Kraken Stablecoin
(33:38) Crypto Market Structure
(35:16) Competitor Analysis
(40:17) Hyperliquid
(42:25) X Stocks
(44:58) Ninja Trader Acquisition
(49:33) IPO?
(52:39) Long term Leadership
(53:53) Ads (Eigenlayer, Geodnet)
(55:32) Prediction Markets + Perps
(59:16) Tokenization / Onchain IPOs
(01:04:18) What's Obvious to Arjun
(01:09:46) 4 Year Cycle
 --
Disclaimer: Nothing said on Empire is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Santiago, Jason, Rob and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Kraken’s 10 Year Plan With Arjun Sethi

Happy Friday! For this week’s Roundup, Rob and Yano dive into the recent stablecoin raises (Rain and M0) and explore the exponentially growing industry of prediction markets and discuss what could be beyond PolyMarket and Kalshi. They also touch upon the macro environment, where we are in the cycle and leave some killer content recs. 
--
Start your day with crypto news, analysis and data from David Canellis. 
Subscribe to the Empire newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire?utm_source=podcasts
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Follow Rob: https://x.com/HadickM
Follow Santi: https://x.com/santiagoroel
Follow Jason: https://x.com/JasonYanowitz
Follow Empire: https://twitter.com/theempirepod
--
Join the Empire Telegram: https://t.me/+CaCYvTOB4Eg1OWJh
--
GEODNET is the world’s largest RTK network, delivering real-time, centimeter-level precision for drones, robots, farmers, and first responders. Recognized by the U.S. Congress, this blockchain-powered network supports mission-critical applications across a wide range of industries. 
Discover how GEODNET is changing the world: [https://geodnet.com]
-- 
Get up to speed on the biggest stories in crypto each week. In five minutes. 
Get the Bitwise Weekly CIO Memo delivered directly to your inbox at bitwiseinvestments.com/ciomemo/empire
 --
"Mantle is pioneering ""Blockchain for Banking"" as a revolutionary new category that sits at the intersection of TradFi and web3.
 
Key elements for Mantle as the ""Blockchain for Banking"": 
    - Transactions posted to the blockchain
    - Compatibility with TradFi rails
    - Integrated DeFi features
UR, built by Mantle, is the first real-world example: an on-chain money app offering Swiss IBANs and unified access to fiat (EUR, CHF, USD, RMB) and crypto — bringing crypto into everyday finance.
Mantle Network, the access layer — transforms Mantle Network into a purpose-built vertical platform — the blockchain for banking — that enables financial services on-chain. Mantle leads the establishment of Blockchain for Banking as the next frontier.
Follow Mantle on X (@Mantle_Official) for the latest updates on Mantle as the 'Blockchain for Banking'."
--
Citrea is the first zero-knowledge rollup to enhance the capabilities of Bitcoin blockspace and enable Bitcoin applications (₿apps). Citrea is optimistically verified by Bitcoin, offering the most Bitcoin-secured and native way to extend BTC’s utility to DeFi. 
Learn more about Citrea: https://citrea.xyz/?utm_source=bellcurve&amp;utm_medium=podcast&amp;utm_campaign=website_promo  
Follow Citrea on X/Twitter for the latest on its journey to mainnet: https://x.com/citrea_xyz
--
Is your treasury losing value to inflation? Learn how to make digital assets like ETH and SOL productive with uncorrelated, protocol-driven staking rewards. A new report from Liquid Collective and EigenCloud outlines a practical guide for CFOs to integrate institutional-grade staking and restaking.
Read The Productive Treasury Report: https://liquidcollective.io/corporate-treasury-staking/
--
Chapters:
(03:06) Rain
(19:36) M0’s Rise
(25:58) Ads (Geodnet, Bitwise)
(27:26) Prediction Markets
(47:51) Ads (Geodnet, Bitwise)
(49:12) Ads (Mantle, EigenLayer, Citrea)
(51:38) DATs priced in?
(56:47) Cycle Analysis
(01:02:23) Content of the week
—
Disclaimer: Nothing said on Empire is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Santiago, Jason, Rob and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Stablecoins & Prediction Markets, Nothing Else | Weekly Roundup

Gm! This week Yano was joined by Commissioner Hester Peirce to dive into how the SEC is rethinking and reframing the role that digital assets can play in the financial landscape of the US. In a balancing act between fostering innovation and protecting consumers, Commissioner Peirce’s job is an important one to move the industry forward stateisde. 
--
Start your day with crypto news, analysis and data from David Canellis. 
Subscribe to the Empire newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire?utm_source=podcasts
--
Follow Commissioner Peirce: https://x.com/HesterPeirce
Follow Jason: https://x.com/JasonYanowitz
Follow Empire: https://twitter.com/theempirepod
--
Join the Empire Telegram: https://t.me/+CaCYvTOB4Eg1OWJh
--
SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 50 Million users over $11 Billion in gas fees. 
SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at https://skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork
--
Katana is a DeFi-first chain built for deep liquidity and high yield. No empty emissions, just real yield and sequencer fees routed back to DeFi users. 
Pre-deposit now: Earn high APRs with Turtle Club [https://app.turtle.club/campaigns/katana] or spin the wheel with Katana Krates [https://app.katana.network/krates]
–
Chapters:
(00:00) Intro
(02:14) Early To Crypto
(07:45) TradFi Censorship
(09:20) Goal of SEC
(13:06) Ads (Skale, Katana)
(14:36) Token Launches &amp; Transparency
(22:43) AirDrops/ICOs 
(23:57) Accredited Investor Rules
(25:00) Trillion Dollar Private Companies
(26:30) Innovation vs Protecting Consumers
(29:35) Licensing 
(35:52) Ads (Skale, Katana)
(37:22) Bank Secrecy Act
(40:29) Privacy In Crypto
(46:48) Self Custody
(49:20) DATs
(51:15) New ETFs
(55:51) Prediction Markets
(57:21) Politicization of Crypto
—
Disclaimer: Nothing said on Empire is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Santiago, Jason, and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Commissioner Peirce On SEC’s Next Moves

This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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First, the really bullish stuff.



Pantera Capital managing partner Paul Veradittakit just put out a State of Crypto Venture Capital report with plenty to prick up your ears.



First, the industry is on pace to break 2021’s fundraising record of $29.17 billion. Crypto companies this year have raised over $16 billion — which is already more than the total deal value of 2024.



(BTW: Very cool that <a href="https://www.veradiverdict.com/p/e4aa8be1-52e2-477f-b687-7239522cde79?free_preview=false">Veradittakit’s report</a> is grounded in <a href="https://app.blockworksresearch.com/analytics/deal-flow">Blockworks Research data</a>, which covers all things deal flow, including fundraising, M&amp;A and debt financing.)



Veradittakit characterizes this year’s fundraising as a game-changer fueled by record M&amp;A and IPO activity.&nbsp;



He wrote: “2024 was a record year for acquisitions with over 100 mergers and acquisitions (M&amp;A) totaling $1.73 billion and 2025 is set to surpass 2024 in deal count. From January to July of this year it is already at 76 deals and $6.23 billion, which is 3.6× 2024’s full-year dollar volume and is on pace for 130 deals if the current run rate holds.”



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXeqPJRPFKp5dO52iaq-GCg7cW-EdajU8JDyCB3oqCbxT-b8Y8pJJlyP1mEHF4aLDtVTDKa0NBEzjd2XSWaP7g5Kcq7NF34XP9vkKSAFv99l46kgsvGZgtY2eCaJo27Fy5N6qfEs?key=VUdjECCR-IQTKGtKSIld6A" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Nice big green candles. Source: VeradiVerdict</figcaption></figure>



“The momentum in 2025 is less about unleashing pent‑up demand and more a sign of the industry’s natural maturation,” Veradittakit added.



Crypto IPO successes like Circle and Bullish, as well as others coming up (including Figure and BitGo) are making new entrants more comfortable with investing in the blockchain industry.&nbsp;



“This is a pattern seen in other major technological shifts, where a multi-decade build-out precedes explosive growth,” per Veradittakit.



Over on the Empire podcast, Rob Hadick, general partner at Dragonfly Capital, floated the notion that raises like M0’s $40 million and Rain’s $58 million Series Bs were probably the “tail end of the fervor” that came just before the Genius Act rolled out in June.



“I can tell you right now, there&#8217;s definitely some fatigue,” Hadick said.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<iframe loading="lazy" title="Stablecoins &amp; Prediction Markets, Nothing Else | Weekly Roundup" width="1024" height="576" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/XuiL_EyEiEc?feature=oembed" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" allowfullscreen></iframe>
</div></figure>



Interestingly, Hadick pointed out that the level of entrepreneurs that are now building in stablecoins is increasing.&nbsp;



One deal that Dragonfly is looking at right now involves founders that were executives at “some of the largest payment companies in the world and they just know how money flows — we haven’t seen that level of entrepreneur before.”



“And so I think we&#8217;ll see this kind of dip in the market, and then we&#8217;re going to see new novel, awesome entrepreneurs, an acceleration into maybe the end of the year [and] next year,” Hadick said.



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



Get the news in your inbox. Explore Blockworks newsletters:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/the-breakdown">The Breakdown</a>: Decoding crypto and the markets. Daily.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/0xresearch">0xResearch</a>: Alpha in your inbox. Think like an analyst. </li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">Empire</a>: Crypto news and analysis to start your day.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forward-guidance">Forward Guidance</a>: The intersection of crypto, macro and policy.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/thedrop">The Drop</a>: Apps, games, memes and more.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/lightspeed">Lightspeed</a>: All things Solana.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/supply-shock">Supply Shock</a>: Bitcoin, bitcoin, bitcoin.</li>
</ul>

Dragonfly Capital

Crypto industry on pace to break 2021 fundraising record

This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



Last week, we spent some time exploring what the rest of the cycle might look like.&nbsp;



Another reason that this time is different: Crypto has never been in a bull market with an agreeable SEC.



How wild this cycle might’ve looked without Gensler at the helm for the first half.



Don’t get me wrong — having a securities regulator back off on stuff like ETFs (bonus points for in-kind redemptions), liquid staking and staking-as-a-service is grand.&nbsp;



But ICOs are the Holy Grail for the crypto space. The job’s not finished until they’re back.&nbsp;



Hester Peirce, the SEC Commissioner who was earlier to crypto than practically anyone at the agency, is acutely aware that financial accessibility is at the heart of what makes crypto “crypto.”



“Obviously I’m someone who believes very strongly in the dispersion of knowledge across society, and in the fundamental value of every human being, and the ability of every human being to contribute something unique to society. And I think that concept really links up very well with crypto,” Peirce told Yano on today’s Empire podcast.



“[Crypto] is trying to bring the ability of people to engage with one another, peer to peer, and really to draw on people who society might before have shut out. If you have a centralized intermediary, what happens is that that intermediary — either of its own accord or because the government tells it to do so — shuts certain people out.”



We already know that the answer is open-source protocols that “anyone can access and use on the same terms as everyone else,” as Peirce put it. And we already have them.&nbsp;



Still, freedom of access does not come with freedom of consequences for offering token sales to US investors. At least, until the SEC finalizes a clear framework for token sales.&nbsp;



“I mean, the goal is to get a framework in place that would allow people to do ICOs, to do airdrops, in a way that they understood was compliant with the securities laws, and then I think you would see that kind of thing happening here, so that certainly is why we’re working expeditiously to try to get something done,” Peirce said.



<iframe loading="lazy" width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/2OFzH92_DwI?si=VBcXTZ4iGBkbbR0Z" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" allowfullscreen></iframe>







OK, but what will that framework look like? Crypto Mom didn’t go into detail, but some of her comments earlier on in the podcast might hint towards where it’s going:



“The definition of ‘security’ is very broad. We think often of just stocks and bonds, but you also have investment contracts which are intended to capture anything where someone says, ‘Hey, give me some of your money. I&#8217;ll take it, pool it with other people&#8217;s money. You don&#8217;t have to do anything. I&#8217;ll do all the work and you&#8217;ll get profits based on the work that I do.’



“That&#8217;s something that investment contracts were designed to capture. And that&#8217;s how a lot of these token-distribution events look an awful lot like investment contract transactions. And so trying to figure out: ‘Okay, then, the token was sold as part of that transaction, but it doesn&#8217;t always carry that investment contract with it. How do we think about how long the obligations of the person selling the token should last to the people buying it?’ That&#8217;s really what we&#8217;re wrestling through.”



To me, the most telling part was that Peirce zoomed in on the SEC’s mandate to capture “the capital-raising transaction” when regulating digital assets, “but not saddling the token with securities laws for the rest of its life.”



Compare that with recent comments from SEC chair Paul Atkins, when he said that “there are very few, in my mind, tokens that are securities, but it depends on what’s the package around it and how that’s being sold.”



Something tells me that Atkins might consider many more tokens to be securities had the low-float airdrop meta never taken hold — and those airdrops were ICOs instead.&nbsp;



At this point, it could be another few years until token launches are considered safe enough to really proliferate. Just in time for the next bull market, I guess.



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



Get the news in your inbox. Explore Blockworks newsletters:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/the-breakdown">The Breakdown</a>: Decoding crypto and the markets. Daily.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/0xresearch">0xResearch</a>: Alpha in your inbox. Think like an analyst. </li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">Empire</a>: Crypto news and analysis to start your day.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forward-guidance">Forward Guidance</a>: The intersection of crypto, macro and policy.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/thedrop">The Drop</a>: Apps, games, memes and more.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/lightspeed">Lightspeed</a>: All things Solana.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/supply-shock">Supply Shock</a>: Bitcoin, bitcoin, bitcoin.</li>
</ul>

Empire Newsletter

Hester Peirce on the SEC’s next moves in crypto

This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



Kanye did it. He launched a memecoin on Solana.



Some say this is the top signal for which we’ve been waiting, making Yeezy the Lisan al-Gaib of bears.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full is-resized"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="730" height="376" src="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/yzy.png" alt="" class="wp-image-106383" style="width:481px;height:auto" srcset="https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/yzy.png?w=730 730w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/yzy.png?w=300 300w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/yzy.png?w=428 428w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/yzy.png?w=470 470w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/yzy.png?w=389 389w, https://blockworks-co.imgix.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/yzy.png?w=80 80w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 730px) 100vw, 730px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption"><a href="https://x.com/kanyewest/status/1958346810801697237">Source</a></figcaption></figure>



Maybe so. Although the top signals were much, much louder last time around.



For one thing, Yeezy has fallen off. I’m not sure YZY on Meteora in 2025 will ever have the same impact as if it was sold at the height of the Yeezy brand circa 2020.



Still, I spent my morning going over archives of crypto headlines from the tail-end of the monster 2021 bull market.



What were the signs that crypto would peak at a $3-trillion market cap in the second week of November?&nbsp;



Any top signal would need to come within six months of that cycle peak, I decided. You probably remember that 2021 saw two major tops, in May and November, so really any signal that came before May would’ve ultimately pointed to much higher prices (making them bullish signals).



And yeah, hindsight is 20/20. But tell me that these headlines weren’t screaming that a top was soon near.



“<a href="https://blockworks.co/news/ftx-closes-900m-series-b-round-valuing-exchange-at-18b">FTX Closes $900M Series B Round Valuing Exchange at $18B</a>” — July 20, 2021 (yes, that’s a $900-million raise).



“Tim Berners-Lee sells web source code NFT for $5.4m” — June 30, 2021 (132 days until top).



“CityCoins Community Officially Launches with MiamiCoin, Its First City-Based Token” — August 3, 2021 (remember these?)



“El Salvador buys bitcoin as the digital currency becomes legal tender” — September 6, 2021.



“OpenSea admits insider trading of NFTs it promoted” — September 16, 2021 (arguably the most compelling yet).



“China declares all crypto-currency transactions illegal” — September 2, 2021 (68 days until top).



“<a href="https://blockworks.co/news/coinbases-new-direct-deposit-feature-allows-users-to-get-paychecks-in-crypto">Coinbase’s New Direct Deposit Feature Allows Users to Get Paychecks in Crypto</a>” — September 27, 2021.



“TikTok Is Auctioning Its NFT Collection Featuring Lil Nas X, Grimes, Bella Poarch, More” — October 1, 2021 (NFT = Nearly Freakin’ Top).



“<a href="https://blockworks.co/news/celsius-valued-at-3-25b-after-400m-raise-amid-regulatory-headwinds">Celsius Valued at $3.25B After $400M Raise Amid Regulatory Headwinds</a>” — October 12, 2021 (narrator: Celsius would file for bankruptcy nine months later and its CEO would eventually be sentenced to 12 years’ prison for fraud).



“Bahamas-based crypto exchange FTX raises a $420.69M Series B-1 at a $25B valuation from 69 investors, including BlackRock and Tiger Global” — October 21, 2021 (I mean, this one was a doozy, especially paired with the Celsius saga).



“Facebook Changes Company Name to Meta in Focus on Metaverse” — October 28, 2021 (12 days until top).



“Incoming NYC Mayor Eric Adams: Pay Me In Bitcoin” — November 4, 2021.



“<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/05/technology/nft-nyc-metaverse.html">Crypto Is Cool. Now Get on the Yacht</a>” — November 5, 2021 (all about NFT.NYC, the New York conference that attracted a record 5,000 attendees just four days before the top).



“About 5% of Sotheby’s, Christie’s Contemporary Art Auctions Are NFTs” — November 8, 2021 (one day before the top).



To cap it off, Coinbase’s Q3 earnings were even <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/coinbase-reports-q3-net-revenue-dropped-39-to-1-234b">released</a> on the exact day that crypto peaked. Revenue had dropped 39%, from $2 billion to just over $1.2 billion, lower than estimates, and the number of monthly transacting users dipped 16%. COIN tanked 12% in postmarket trading as a result.



So, does a lame ChatGPT 5 release, a new SPAC from Chamath, Meta hiring freeze and a memecoin from washed entertainer stack up to this monumental run of headlines? Not really.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">The top signals rolling in fast. Chamath SPAC, Meta hiring freeze, OpenAI admitting GPT-5 is a “miss”, Kanye coin. All in 48h. <a href="https://t.co/qJdmpnzS8S">https://t.co/qJdmpnzS8S</a>&mdash; Adam Cochran (adamscochran.eth) (@adamscochran) <a href="https://twitter.com/adamscochran/status/1958353499848147190?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 21, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



But then again, it may be another cycle or two before crypto runs back its cultural significance, as it was in 2021. The signals might be quieter this time around.



Read More: <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/paris-hilton-bitcoin-celebrity-indicators">Was Katy Perry a top signal in 2022?</a>



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



Get the news in your inbox. Explore Blockworks newsletters:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/the-breakdown">The Breakdown</a>: Decoding crypto and the markets. Daily.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/0xresearch">0xResearch</a>: Alpha in your inbox. Think like an analyst. </li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire">Empire</a>: Crypto news and analysis to start your day.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forward-guidance">Forward Guidance</a>: The intersection of crypto, macro and policy.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/thedrop">The Drop</a>: Apps, games, memes and more.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/lightspeed">Lightspeed</a>: All things Solana.</li>



<li><a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/supply-shock">Supply Shock</a>: Bitcoin, bitcoin, bitcoin.</li>
</ul>

If Kanye’s memecoin is a top signal, then crypto has fallen off

This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



Everyone is searching for top signals.



It could be that crypto is destined to forever follow the global money supply. Any sign of the bull market’s end would then be buried in macroeconomic data. Boring!



Empire is all about giving a look behind the curtain of the crypto industry.&nbsp;



So let’s instead draw a more interesting correlation: how many shares crypto’s richest executives are cashing in on the way up.



First, it’s worth making one thing clear: People are allowed to make money. If any of us were in the same position, there’s no doubt that we’d be offloading our equity as markets heat up. That’s what it’s there for. 



And boy, have insiders been putting up numbers.&nbsp;



Since January 1, insiders at just four publicly-traded companies in and around crypto have altogether net-sold almost $1.7 billion in company shares.



More than three-quarters of that sum was sold in the past three months alone — during bitcoin’s push from around $103,000 to over $124,000.



The chart below plots those insider stock sales (the colorful columns) against the price of bitcoin (the purple line).&nbsp;



As you can see, insider sales remained relatively quiet for the first half of the year but ramped up once Circle went public in June.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXcb-qLWXKS6SWLprYnRZP-dUnNiGZx48n4zzo2VwgeFqnQUjhIuiR9n1NEW99eBjNN_Q-hzw1PxgdzgomU9AGwERa2WbLJwJM-gZq62AutochOYt5Y2rCRkMCDYL0uejg-JfFDdtg?key=r_WgUn7XBsOqyXnRPtHFIA" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: Openinsider, CoinGecko</figcaption></figure>



Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire alone made $46.4 million by selling nearly 1.6 million shares on Circle’s second day of trade, some flowing through a trust. The stock was sold for $29.30 on average, while CRCL’s share price has since climbed past $135 — a 360% increase.



Still, that technically places Allaire in fifth position by value generated by stock sales for 2025 to date, excluding VC firms General Catalyst Group VI and Chuang Xi Capital, which cashed in $104 million and $68.2 million in shares, respectively, directly following Circle’s IPO.



As for who’s been selling the most stock in crypto, at least out of company executives, it’s Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, hands down.



Armstrong has sold $485.8 million in COIN shares so far this year through a trust, per OpenInsider data, which collates SEC filings.&nbsp;



That’s nearly $85 million more than former Robinhood CEO Bhatt Baiju’s $399.7 million worth of shares, and almost $300 million more than current CEO Vlad Tenev’s $207.1 million.



Not all insiders have been strictly dumping, however. Nine execs from Strategy have actually been buying shares over the past five months or so, led by Peter L. Briger, a recently-appointed company director and former co-CEO at Fortress Investment Group.&nbsp;



Briger <a href="https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1050446/000095017025099806/xslF345X03/ownership.xml">participated</a> in the STRC preferred stock offering in July to the tune of $19.8 million through an LLC.&nbsp;



What does any of this tell us about where we’re at in the cycle? It’s obviously been hot enough for insiders to start itching for a big payday, it seems.&nbsp;



Are they savvy enough to have sold the top?&nbsp;



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Economy

Crypto insiders ramp up stock sales, nearing $1.7B in 2025

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Crypto is tribal. That’s one of its best qualities. Think about it: What would this space even be without purity tests?&nbsp;



Notice that I used the word “space” and not “industry,” “asset class” or “sector.”&nbsp;



Crypto has always had intense rivalries, but the nuances are mostly lost on those on the outside. It’s not their fault — the regulatory war that raged in the US over the past few years united otherwise squabbling camps against a common enemy (Gary Gensler). An “<a href="https://blockworks.co/news/sec-ripple-gary-gensler">enemy of my enemy is our enemy</a>” situation.



The thermal effect of that chumminess has largely worn off, however, and things are only destined to get uglier from here, especially if/when the market rolls over.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">can CT even survive another bear market lmao&mdash; VanEck (@vaneck_us) <a href="https://twitter.com/vaneck_us/status/1957568763236073831?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 18, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



For sure, there is a crypto industry. And there is a crypto asset class. And a crypto sector. But they’re not filled with the same stuff.



With Gensler gone and the SEC headed by someone more agreeable, it’s easy to forget that a lot was hinging on the Ripple verdict, for reasons that don’t feel as pertinent now.&nbsp;



The question of what exactly a so-called “crypto security” is ultimately mattered to every single person working in and around crypto, in a very different way than the <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/roman-storm-guilty-one-count">Roman Storm verdict</a> and the Samourai Wallet guilty pleas were important.&nbsp;



Let’s run through a hypothetical: Pretend we believe that — even if XRP was not a security when sold to institutional backers — there exist many tokens that are clearly as centralized as XRP, or even more so. Some are more centralized in very different ways. In that case, the long-term viability of any coins we hold directly depends on whether the underlying tech (and the broader ecosystem) is truly decentralized. And for that, we need purity tests.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">Ethereum vs. Solana is not the vibe Ethereum/Solana vs. Ripple, Stellar, Hedera, and all of this other centralized drek that are looking for institutional and regulatory capture, is the vibe Faster both communities realize this the better imo&mdash; _gabrielShapir0 (@lex_node) <a href="https://twitter.com/lex_node/status/1868677562681217471?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 16, 2024</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



Perhaps we will get regulatory clarity (read: a state-sanctioned purity test) from the SEC about what makes a token a “security,” in such a way that plainly dictates what is and what isn’t a sufficiently decentralized asset on blockchain rails.&nbsp;



It might even come out in the wash of the XRP and Solana ETF applications — but if regulation by enforcement was bad, then don’t be surprised if regulation by ETF application is worse.



If I had to pinpoint the vibe right now, I’d say it’s that there is an unconscious understanding that this is destined to come to a head.&nbsp;



After all, why is it that institutions are gravitating towards Ethereum as they migrate onchain, rather than Solana? Could it have something to do with a perceived degree of centralization in and around Solana, one which just isn’t there with Ethereum?&nbsp;



Hammer out the differences between the two networks and you’ll have devised your own purity test. Although, perhaps it has nothing to do with home validators at all.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">the level of social coordination amongst Solana stakeholders is second to none. whatever they are “waging war” against is what people need to double down on. centralized block production decentralized block validation always has been <a href="https://t.co/Et95qEno3G">https://t.co/Et95qEno3G</a>&mdash; namik // mega-chef Σ: (@NamikMuduroglu) <a href="https://twitter.com/NamikMuduroglu/status/1950119561258230247?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 29, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



Alongside this tension, stress has bubbled through the proof-of-work side of the crypto space. But decentralization is much easier to prove in that world. All that really matters, at a bedrock level, is whether the hash rate is distributed enough so that the blockchain can withstand a 51% attack. Anything less is centralization.



Monero has just passed such a test — but only barely. You probably saw that AI project Qubic attempted to 51% attack Monero by incentivizing its users to mine XMR. Qubic only got as far as about 28%, according to one <a href="https://shai-deshe.gitbook.io/parallel-thoughts/proof-of-work/the-qubic-minority-report">analysis</a> (up to 35% if considering selfish mining).



“The elephant in the room is not what this means for Qubic, but what this means for Monero,”



Independent researcher Shai Wyborski wrote. “Monero brands itself as a provider of military grade security, suited for sensitive, high-profile applications. They aspire to become part of the global economic infrastructure designed to provide reliability and robustness. Having been disrupted to such a thorough extent by an overall niche movement should considerably undermine their ability to do so.”



Monero is largely an old head Tornado Cash or Samourai Wallet: a network you jump in and out of to muddy the provenance for your coins, hypothetically speaking. But would the disappearance of any of those three really impact the crypto “industry,” “asset class,” or “sector”? I’d argue not; in fact, it might even be really good for business.



That said, losing those platforms and protocols and others like them would be absolutely detrimental to the “crypto space.”&nbsp;



There we go again, another purity test.



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Why crypto is headed for straight PvP

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We know there’s an obvious disconnect between the average retail investor and the whales with enough size to really influence markets.



Perhaps the most extreme gap is between, say, someone who holds a few thousand dollars’ worth of coins they’ve bought on an exchange, and a VC fund that holds the exact same tokens. The VC fund very likely acquired those coins for much, much cheaper. By orders of magnitude, even. In fact, it was never possible for the retail investor to have bought the tokens at the same price, considering the VC bought them for a flat price years before they were ever listed on an exchange.



Over the past year or two, liquid funds have become increasingly common in crypto markets. These operate similarly to traditional hedge funds in that they freely buy and sell publicly-tradable tokens according to their mandate.&nbsp;



In many cases, liquid funds trade via the same spot markets utilized by retail traders and market makers, although often with more sophisticated trading systems for more precise execution, with liquidity sourced via OTC desks, and so on.



“What is your mandate, Seth?” Yano asked Seth Ginns, Managing Partner and Head of Liquid Investments at CoinFund, on today&#8217;s Empire podcast episode.



“Our mandate is, as an investment firm, to find the best, fundamentally driven opportunities on the venture and liquid side. And then [on] the liquid side, we drive absolute return strategies,” Ginns said.&nbsp;



“So we’re investing in secular growth opportunities where we think that the addressable market is very large, the team is fantastic, and there&#8217;s the opportunity to have a large return based on a fundamental underwrite over a multi-year period.”



Ask a retail investor what their mandate is and they’d probably tell you something similar, albeit with less jargon: find the least risky coins with the most potential to go up, and buy that.



<iframe loading="lazy" width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/QX6jxGQlM-w?si=mxChyLkfoXldLOje" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" allowfullscreen></iframe>







Cosmo Jiang, General Partner and Portfolio Manager at Pantera Capital, distilled his firm’s strategy into generating outperformance — which generally means beating bitcoin’s returns by picking tokens.&nbsp;



Both Jiang’s and Ginns’ funds hold between 10 and 20 or so different coins right now.&nbsp;



Jiang said: “The edge of other managers is going to be around perhaps the acquisition part of the token, and others might be around the execution side — that’ll be the market-neutral guys, the market makers and things like that.



“But on the far end where I&#8217;m on, I believe the vast majority of our performance, if I were to do performance attribution, comes from token selection and less so the actual execution.”



He explained that Pantera uses a variety of options, primarily spot trading with some derivatives to access liquidity elsewhere. Pantera’s fund is domiciled in the US, which means it cannot trade on international exchanges.



As for how these funds actually pick their coins, Ginns had this to say:



“It’s an environment where if you do the work, if you have the connectivity, if you&#8217;re going to the developer conferences, if you can see where the tech is going, you can actually drive really good returns like that.”



He continued: “That was the biggest frustration over the last few years: You could do the work, but you weren&#8217;t seeing those positive fundamentals reflected in the token valuations. And there&#8217;ve been some really big changes that have happened, so it&#8217;s not just the change in [US] administration that&#8217;s been a catalyst.”



Catch the full episode (which includes insight into both portfolios) on <a href="https://www.youtube.com/@empirepod">YouTube</a>, <a href="https://open.spotify.com/show/4UTePv1CR3APdKOiosR3Iq">Spotify</a>, <a href="https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/empire/id1554930038">Apple Podcasts</a> and <a href="https://x.com/theempirepod">X</a>.



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altcoins

How liquid funds thrive in spot crypto markets

Katherine Ross

This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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A16z and the DeFi Education Fund are asking the SEC for a safe harbor for blockchain technology. Simply put, this means that projects wouldn’t have to pursue broker registration for DeFi apps.&nbsp;



“While decentralized blockchain systems underlying apps are clearly excluded from the SEC’s broker-dealer registration regimes, apps face regulatory uncertainty because they are typically developed and maintained by centralized actors. The SEC has previously taken the position — through enforcement actions and Wells notices — that developers of apps could be deemed brokers if they enabled users to transact in securities,” a16z wrote in a blog post this morning. 



In order for an app to qualify, a16z and DEF proposed four criteria: underlying protocols have to be decentralized, it has to be non-custodial, there can’t be investment recommendations, and no discretion. 



“The guiding principle of the safe harbor is that only those Apps which do not engender the risks that the Exchange Act’s broker-dealer regulatory regime was designed to address should be eligible; in such cases, registration as a broker under the Exchange Act is unwarranted and inappropriate,” the two said in their official proposal to the SEC.



So, all in all, they have to be credibly neutral and permissionless. Makes sense, right?&nbsp;



Both DEF and a16z have made it pretty clear that they’re looking out for projects in crypto. Heck, if you missed it earlier this week, a16z’s Miles Jenning and Eddy Lazzarin even went on the <a href="https://blockworks.co/podcast/empire/5f38c3ec-749c-11f0-96bf-4bef818bfbd7">Empire podcast</a> to discuss safely launching tokens. 



<iframe loading="lazy" width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/zfqASHqSTl0?si=77yyTwKO1PPfGLSg" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" allowfullscreen></iframe>







“Developers shouldn’t have to guess whether building public, neutral, and non-custodial software exposes them to the risk of being treated like financial intermediaries,” a16z said. 



The push comes roughly a week after Tornado Cash’s Roman Storm <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/roman-storm-guilty-one-count">was found guilty</a> of conspiracy to operate an unlicensed money transmitter business by a jury in a trial that’s left all of us <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/opinion-tornado-cash-conviction-raises-alarm">wondering about</a> potential implications. This push from a16z and DEF would help to clear some of the current murkiness.&nbsp;



“This proposal aims to be flexible to account for the ever-evolving nature of early-stage tech development and is grounded in the understanding that most apps are fundamentally non-custodial, passive software tools that allow users to interact directly with public, decentralized network and protocol infrastructure — and, therefore, should not be subject to broker-dealer registration requirements,” DEF’s Amanda Tuminelli said. 



Despite the fact that it’s very clearly a new era at the SEC, there’s work to be done to allow projects and developers in the space to continue to innovate safely.&nbsp;



Now to see how the SEC plans to approach this topic.&nbsp;



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A16z and DeFi Education Fund propose ‘safe harbor’ policies for DeFi apps

For savvy degens who want to think like researchers and analysts, from Blockworks Research

0xResearch

Investigates the macro landscape as the laws of investing are being rewritten, helping investors adapt to a rapidly changing environment.

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The essential source for all things Solana — exclusive news, deep analysis, and the latest trends.

Lightspeed

Detailing Bitcoin’s rise from internet plaything worth less than a penny to global phenomenon disrupting money as we know it.

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The Breakdown

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Whether you’re bullish, bearish, or channeling some other animal spirit, you’re forgiven for feeling the pressure right now.



It’s been two weeks since bitcoin’s last all-time high and only four days since ether set a new price after almost three years.



Bitcoin could trend sideways and even downward for all anyone would care.&nbsp;



ETH sets the tempo for the foreseeable future. Scary stuff.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">top signals are just apparently no longer a thing we had ETF&#39;s &#8211; now we&#39;re trading higher we had Trump election &#8211; now we&#39;re higher we had Trump token &#8211; now we&#39;re higher we had eth volumes flip btc volumes for over a month straight &#8211; now we&#39;re higher now we&#39;re issuing GDP…&mdash; merp (@0xMerp) <a href="https://twitter.com/0xMerp/status/1960790841632678300?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 27, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">This is good for ETH</figcaption></figure>



Before we zoom in on ETH, let&#8217;s see the momentum it&#8217;s inherited from bitcoin.



The chart below plots every bitcoin bull market together, as if they all started on the same day. Green dots point to cycle peaks, and each bull phase starts at the previous bear market’s lowest price.



By these (very basic) rules, bitcoin has now been on a bull market for 1,023 days — 2.8 years.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXeVutT6n0LXr1uWqXJU0OboUaz2fRFwjZJqXtcC0HENCgLG4oAKSsHolLUIJrdkNCU0zguJQZC68hI7ff6LTnJQQyURFPq45JabxJfjyY7ExFiZPe8k8Q4YiAVCd26VTpWE2PM-og?key=LrYZb3WcbLF2uZa5P-FQPg" alt=""/></figure>



If the bitcoin top is not yet in, then bitcoin is on track to soon enter its longest bull market on record. It took another 40 days or so from here for bitcoin to reach its November 2021 peak.



Returns so far are about what you would expect, considering how large the market cap of bitcoin has grown.&nbsp;



At this point in the past two cycles, bitcoin had posted up to 100x and around 21x, respectively.&nbsp;



Two weeks ago, when bitcoin hit $124,100, that was the equivalent of about a 7x from the late 2022 bottom.



Here’s the same chart, but for ETH.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXev3LTC8Ptqp59Pvpz7CUbYIPhy6ApuYeCrJecljkR2w2zTAr-m7mybN7-YPtNYthREp0I4y5F64s7Hp210jMzzSp2f929SXUGmifQqItECtyVmdOd-YtvYU6cCRL4mcL6WFo9IZg?key=LrYZb3WcbLF2uZa5P-FQPg" alt=""/></figure>



It’s similar. But technically, ETH has now entered its longest bull market on record — or in other words, this all-time high took longer than ever before



What’s glaring is that ETH’s cycle returns are tracking far below the previous bull market.&nbsp;



Perhaps Solana has something to do with that, considering bitcoin has no analogous direct rival.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">Yesterday, we published our note on the top holders of Ethereum ETFs. Advisors are dominating the known holders and have pulled away from Hedge Funds. <a href="https://t.co/qvP6ZGN3VI">pic.twitter.com/qvP6ZGN3VI</a>&mdash; James Seyffart (@JSeyff) <a href="https://twitter.com/JSeyff/status/1960726566406651920?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 27, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">The advisoooors have done something</figcaption></figure>



But if it’s true that ETH is the thermometer for where crypto is headed for the next year, year and a half, then the pink line will need to catch up to the purple line, fast.



Updated 8/28/2025 at 10:07 a.m. ET: ETH’s cycle returns and length have been corrected.



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ETH poised to set tempo for the rest of the bull run

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Like all good things, it turns out that killer apps come in threes.



Polymarket, Hyperliquid, pump.fun. These are the voyages of modern-day crypto enterprise.



And before you tell me that stablecoins are crypto’s fourth killer app, thereby ruining this airtight metaphor: No.&nbsp;



Stablecoins are a tool. Wallets are apps (but only barely). I will die on this hill.



For the sake of being pedantic, let’s separate Circle, with its <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/circle-ipo-price-execution-stablecoins">wildly successful IPO</a>, into a separate category: “fintech on the blockchain.”



There’s suddenly no question that Polymarket, Hyperliquid and pump.fun are the sole victors of this cycle.&nbsp;



Hyperliquid won perps, pump.fun won memecoins (although Bonk.fun <a href="https://app.blockworksresearch.com/analytics/launchpads">made it close</a>), and Polymarket won the concept of betting on random stuff. Polymarket had its <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/polymarket-performs-smoothly-on-election-day">breakthrough moment</a> during the US election, so it tracks that Donald Trump Jr’s 1789 Capital recent investment has cemented its status.&nbsp;



CNBC <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/26/polymarket-secures-investment-from-trump-jr-backed-1789-capital.html">reports</a> the deal ranged in the double-digit millions, with Don Jr. also joining the firm’s advisory board.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">Pleased to announce that my fund <a href="https://twitter.com/1789Capital?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@1789capital</a> has invested in <a href="https://twitter.com/Polymarket?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Polymarket</a> and that I will be joining the team as a Strategic Advisor. Prediction markets have completely changed the way people follow the news. I&#39;m proud to support the industry and look forward to helping… <a href="https://t.co/C3QlMEKQFe">https://t.co/C3QlMEKQFe</a>&mdash; Donald Trump Jr. (@DonaldJTrumpJr) <a href="https://twitter.com/DonaldJTrumpJr/status/1960367380724351416?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 26, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



A longstanding criticism of the crypto space is that it’s too insular. That it’s all decentralized infrastructure for degenerate gambling apps, in one form or another. Crypto’s endless servicing of speculation largely overshadows the utility of peer-to-peer payments and freely accessible tokenized dollars.



Now, I don’t agree with that summation, but it exists, persistently so. And the fact that the current breakthrough apps express different degrees of degeneracy won’t do much to change that perception — Hyperliquid with its leverage of up to 40x; pump.fun with its gamified memecoin launches; Polymarket with its pop-culture wagering.



I have a theory that crypto is, for the most part, years ahead of the mainstream. Crypto knew that blockchain-powered prediction markets were interesting seven years ago, when Augur launched on Ethereum in 2018, causing <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/welcome-augur-cryptocurrency-death-market-where-you-can-bet-donald-trump-1043571">moral panic</a> over the potential for assassination markets and so on.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">Not a very consequential thing, but kinda funny: a Polymarket user named &quot;romanticpaul&quot; (yes, his real username) started aggressively buying Taylor Swift to be engaged starting yesterday afternoon around 3pm. He nearly doubled the price from a 25% chance (this year) to 45%. You… <a href="https://t.co/IXVRqj0eB6">pic.twitter.com/IXVRqj0eB6</a>&mdash; Domer❤️‍🔥 (@Domahhhh) <a href="https://twitter.com/Domahhhh/status/1960394729176105077?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 26, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



Do we need to bet on celebrity romance? No. Is it fun? Yes.



Bookies have obviously been taking bets on obscure stuff like the next James Bond or celebrity deaths long before crypto. But Augur, Polymarket and all the others have added immediacy to the mix — letting the public open the markets rather than the bookies themselves.&nbsp;



Anyone paying attention to sports betting would know that gambling on anything and everything would be the next evolution. And perhaps Bored Apes re-primed the normie-sphere for its next big arbitrary collectible in <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/labubus-succeeded-nfts-failed">Labubus</a>, some three decades after Tomagotchis and Beanie Babies ran wild.



With this in mind, 1789 Capital’s bet is clearly a solid one, even if Polymarket is what Russ Hanneman would call “<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BzAdXyPYKQo">pre-revenue</a>,” in that it doesn’t collect any fees (yet), apparently subsisting only on venture capital money like the cash just raised from Don Jr, now amounting to hundreds of millions of dollars.



And for all of its pesky <a href="https://www.dlnews.com/articles/people-culture/bettors-say-some-polymarket-prediction-outcomes-are-gamed/">problems</a> with market resolutions, it’s certainly fitting that a crypto-native outfit in Polymarket could be a primary venue for mainstream degeneracy moving forward.&nbsp;



It all begs the question: Is there more money to be made by looking outward from crypto rather than inward, like Hyperliquid and pump.fun?&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXexJwFpr4mDV_hj8_jhEL05r_khSbMNJg33Ox-udU4moa1kZo3dmECJs1wqMy0m11gEwlc8fLQRmd0mcbCDTzN1va-qmcrjoLUq5b6WFeBX2hoqmFUFstbVjOxe4C1s5bzw3O7Szw?key=cfCdTcmo1Yyyag1GX4K42Q" alt=""/></figure>



Hyperliquid has averaged more than $55 million onchain monthly revenue over the past six months and pump.fun nearly $33 million, per <a href="https://app.blockworksresearch.com/analytics/application-comparison">Blockworks Research</a> data.&nbsp;



That’s far below a mainstream app like <a href="https://ir.roblox.com/news/news-details/2025/Roblox-Reports-Second-Quarter-2025-Financial-Results/default.aspx">Roblox</a> (currently about $360 million per month), but about in line with <a href="https://www.businessofapps.com/data/discord-statistics/">Discord</a> (around $50 million per month in 2023). Polymarket has otherwise seen over $1 billion in monthly trading volume for three months running, and is on track for a fourth in August. A hypothetical 5% fee would give it $50 million in monthly revenue right away, although perhaps a withdrawal fee might be easier to stomach.



In any case, it’s easy to make the argument that crypto and blockchain are worthwhile regardless of whether they only ever amount to reconstructing the traditional financial system to be more transparent and trustless, outside of the penchant for gambling.&nbsp;



But Polymarket is getting close to crossing the culture chasm in a way that Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana never have. Those may be household names, but they’re still “crypto.”&nbsp;



Polymarket might just be “Polymarket.”



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dApps

Polymarket is close to crossing the culture chasm

This is a segment from the Empire newsletter. To read full editions, <a href="https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">subscribe</a>.



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It’s certainly possible to be in crypto for the tech.&nbsp;



In fact, being in it for the tech — I mean, really in it for the tech; digital nation states on blockchain rails, smart cities, and the tokenization of all things — is the most effective path to alpha bull status.



John McAfee: big tech guy. Michael Saylor: huge on the tech. Same with Tim Draper, Marc Andreessen, Brian Armstrong and Balaji Srinivasan. And who’s been more bullish than them?



Fundstrat’s Tom Lee. That’s who.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">Mark ⁦<a href="https://twitter.com/MarkNewtonCMT?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@MarkNewtonCMT</a>⁩ again at it. ➡️Calling ETH bottom to happen in next few hours ⁦<a href="https://twitter.com/fs_insight?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@fs_insight</a>⁩ ⁦<a href="https://twitter.com/FundstratCap?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@FundstratCap</a>⁩ Tickers: <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%24BMNR&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">$BMNR</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%24GRNY&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">$GRNY</a> <a href="https://t.co/038efU7cZH">pic.twitter.com/038efU7cZH</a>&mdash; Thomas (Tom) Lee (not drummer) FSInsight.com (@fundstrat) <a href="https://twitter.com/fundstrat/status/1960147287491154132?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 26, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Lee has, as of 9:08 p.m. yesterday, called the ETH bottom — to happen right about now.</figcaption></figure>



Lee has actually been bullish longer than almost anyone still active today.



As far as I can tell, his first public predictions for crypto came in mid-2017. Bitcoin’s price had more than doubled in the first six months of the year, to $2,500, leading Lee to call bitcoin’s future price on at least 10 different occasions in the 10 months ending May 2018.&nbsp;



His first prediction actually came true. “Cryptocurrencies are cannibalizing demand for gold,” Lee <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/bitcoin-price-ethereum-cannibalizing-gold-2017-7">wrote</a> to Fundstrat clients eight years ago, in 2017, when bitcoin was at $2,607. &#8220;Bitcoin is arguably becoming a scarcer store of value. Investors need to identify strategies to leverage this potential rise in cryptocurrencies.&#8221;



Base case: bitcoin would reach $20,000 by 2022. Nearly 10x.&nbsp;



Bull case: $55,000 by 2022. A 22x in five years.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXd7vSXENdtL86bYIniWmAwc11OjQBVCy7UqTTWf_b8-5h_ZGkjfm8QHAtdVrKs2xdZ8TUYaW_vMMxziQX3y8tnwCSFHczpA80kYvHo_u8za6_IbXOyerUJWCOtKnnxUHlPsvmcb?key=En_UORTZOH0v8ML2nnDsbg" alt=""/><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">This handy graphic of bitcoin scarcity was included in Lee’s note.</figcaption></figure>



Lee was exactly right. Bitcoin crossed $55,000 for the first time in February 2021, a little earlier than expected, and topped out nine months later beyond $69,000.



What makes things complicated is that Lee kept making predictions after that first banger.&nbsp;



Some were ultimately correct, but too low or too early; others didn’t eventuate in the way he envisioned (like the rally around CoinDesk’s Consensus 2018 conference that <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-18/crypto-bull-tom-lee-owns-up-after-bitcoin-prediction-goes-awry">never came</a>, or that bitcoin never reached $25,000 in 2018, as <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/tom-lee-holds-to-25000-bitcoin-price-prediction-cites-three-supporting-factors">predicted</a> multiple times in the first half of the year).



<figure class="wp-block-image is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXcT1NkrAQrhcpn7xR5W0gM7s8dUG0cwdMLst9FkWGUmg1aSl7Zxq4VqqDGHCXzcNaWXnxyxoFWvjYwDyDwLc-iImsWcaPdV8vTZ-G_23BivqOvL_uy4SaOmQ0Oio4w3QXSBwIQy?key=En_UORTZOH0v8ML2nnDsbg" alt="" style="width:642px;height:auto"/></figure>



Still, there were a few other gems. In January 2018, he <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-18/bitcoin-bull-tom-lee-goes-hyperbolic-on-latest-price-forecast">said</a> that bitcoin could reach $125,000 by 2022 (which it did, only three years after the fact).



At the end of 2020, he <a href="https://x.com/CNBCFastMoney/status/1344407640873562119">foretold</a> bitcoin trading between $100,000 and $150,000 by the start of 2025, which, all things considered, wasn&#8217;t too far off.



But if the worst criticism of Lee’s calls are that they’re too early, then you’ll dig his most recent ones: $200,000 to $250,000 <a href="https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-prediction-250k-still-possible-fundstrat-tom-lee">possible</a> in 2025 (from three weeks ago) and more than $1 million in the next few years.&nbsp;



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">Absolutely unprecedented. Tom Lee has acquired almost $10 billion ETH over the past 50 days. Over 1.7m ETH. 1.4% of all ETH supply. If Tom gets to his 5% target and ETH goes above $12k Bitmine would be larger than Microstrategy. <a href="https://t.co/DpIZv55DBC">pic.twitter.com/DpIZv55DBC</a>&mdash; RYAN SΞAN ADAMS &#8211; rsa.eth 🦄 (@RyanSAdams) <a href="https://twitter.com/RyanSAdams/status/1960030779267760133?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 25, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



Not bullish enough? You might recall that Lee recently made his first publicly-reported ETH prediction, apparently ever, only about a month after he was <a href="https://blockworks.co/news/eth-treasury-companies-growth">appointed</a> chairman of BitMine, which has its own Ethereum-focused treasury acquisition plan.&nbsp;



Lee’s call: Between $15,000 and $16,000 per ETH is possible by the end of the year, which would be a 3x from here.



So, maybe add on a few more years from that, just to be safe.



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