Bitcoin ‘hodlers’ unfazed by recent market volatility

Fresh data suggests 40% of bitcoin’s total supply has remained stationary for more than three years

article-image

Velishchuk Yevhen/Shutterstock, modified by Blockworks

share

Long-term holders appear to be maintaining a strong grip on their investments despite recent market volatility, according to multiple on-chain metrics for the world’s largest digital asset.

Notably, the 1+ Year HODL Wave, a measure of bitcoin holdings untouched for at least a year, reached a peak of 69.2% on July 7 and remains elevated at 68.6%, LookIntoBitcoin data shows. 

While bitcoin (BTC) experienced a sharp 10% drop within a two-hour window on August 17, long-term holders have largely abstained from liquidating or moving their assets. 

Sparked by a sharp drop in US bond yields on Tuesday alongside a small victory in Grayscale’s fight against the SEC to review its application to convert its flagship trust into a spot bitcoin ETF, bitcoin jumped 6.2% to $28,160, its largest daily move in 5 and a half months. 

“If Grayscale’s application to convert its Bitcoin Trust into an ETF is indeed approved in the future, we can expect BTC to climb significantly from here,” Yield App CEO Tim Frost told Blockworks.

The asset has since withdrawn 1.8% and is currently trading for around $27,250, exchange data shows.

This comes while fresh data suggesting that 40% of bitcoin’s total supply has remained stationary for more than three years, Bitfinex Alpha wrote in a recent research note.

1+ Year HODL Wave; Source: lookintobitcoin.com
1+ Year HODL Wave; Source: lookintobitcoin.com

Changes in market dynamics point to an underlying sentiment of resilience and optimism among long-term holders, who appear unfazed by recent market upheavals and reversals.

On-chain metric Coin Days Destroyed (CDD), which gauges the activity level of long-standing coins, has fallen to March 6 lows when viewed over a 30-day average.

A low CDD often correlates with reduced selling pressure in the market, according to the metric.

Coin Days Destroyed; Source: lookintobitcoin.com
Coin Days Destroyed; Source: lookintobitcoin.com

“It’s evident that long-term bitcoin holders have been on a net accumulation spree,” Bitfinex wrote. “The behavior insinuates a broader sentiment of optimism and potential resilience against market volatilities.”

Historically, elevated levels in the HODL Wave metric have often coincided with significant price moves, although the direction — bullish or bearish — remains variable. 

The consistency between these different data points could suggest that a considerable segment of the market is in a holding pattern, potentially anticipating future market developments or simply opting for risk aversion amid market turbulence. 

Additionally, the 1+ Year HODL Wave has shown a robust positive correlation of about 0.730 with bitcoin’s price. 

Bitcoin’s market price has often increased when the metric has been high. Conversely, a contraction in this metric has oftentimes preceded a decline in bitcoin’s value. 

Therefore, the current elevated levels could serve as a forward-looking barometer for market sentiment, Bitfinex wrote.


Get the news in your inbox. Explore Blockworks newsletters:

  • Blockworks Daily: The newsletter that helps thousands of investors understand crypto and the markets, by Byron Gilliam.
  • Empire: Start your morning with the top news and analysis to inform your day in crypto.
  • Forward Guidance: Reporting and analysis on the growing intersection of crypto and macroeconomics, policy and finance.
  • 0xResearch: Alpha directly in your inbox. Market highlights, data, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance and more.
  • Lightspeed: Built for Solana investors, developers and community members. The latest from one of crypto’s hottest networks.
  • The Drop: For crypto collectors and traders, covering apps, games, memes and more.
Tags

Upcoming Events

Javits Center North | 445 11th Ave

Tues - Thurs, March 18 - 20, 2025

Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit (DAS) will feature conversations between the builders, allocators, and legislators who will shape the trajectory of the digital asset ecosystem in the US and abroad.

Industry City | Brooklyn, NY

TUES - THURS, JUNE 24 - 26, 2025

Permissionless IV serves as the definitive gathering for crypto’s technical founders, developers, and builders to come together and create the future.If you’re ready to shape the future of crypto, Permissionless IV is where it happens.

Old Billingsgate

Mon - Wed, October 13 - 15, 2025

Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit (DAS) will feature conversations between the builders, allocators, and legislators who will shape the trajectory of the digital asset ecosystem in the US and abroad.

recent research

Research Report Templates (4).png

Research

Even as the most performant, widely used blockchain today, Solana is still far from perfect, prompting some teams to iterate upon some design choices while maintaining compatibility at the SVM execution layer. This report analyzes three emergent SVM chains (Eclipse, Atlas, and Fogo) to understand the motivations behind the technical architectures, as well as the current state and future outlook.

article-image

Fundamental investors are turning to token buybacks

article-image

A Glassnode report found that the accumulation range for bitcoin is ‘weak,’ indicating a decline in demand

article-image

CEO Bam Azizi said he’ll only be seeking stablecoin-exclusive funding rounds from now on

article-image

Sponsored

WalletConnect is set to deepen its role by integrating with emerging standards and expanding its utility across different onchain sectors

article-image

Zeta Markets has shipped testnet for Bullet, a low-latency “network extension,” the team told Lightspeed exclusively

article-image

Having passed Congress, the resolution will now head to Trump’s desk