Bitcoin price churns under $37K as markets hold breath for ETF news

Bitcoin’s rally has largely been attributed to optimism that the SEC will approve a BTC ETF, but the real rally could come when the product hits the market

article-image

Shutterstock-Pixelsquid and Natalja Petuhova/Shutterstock modified by Blockworks

share

Equities traded sideways while cryptos were mixed Friday morning, rounding out a tumultuous week for markets across the board. 

Bitcoin (BTC) gained as much as 1% Friday afternoon while ether (ETH) dipped into the red, posting a 1.6% loss. Stocks were trading almost completely flat, extending their sideways movement from Thursday. 

Bitcoin’s rally, which has seen the largest crypto gain close to 30% in the past month, has largely been attributed to optimism that the US Securities and Exchange Commission will soon green light a BTC exchange-traded fund. 

The speculation continued Friday when Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analyst Eric Balchunas posted on X that he’d heard the securities regulator has been in talks with exchanges regarding cash creates (where the ETF would accept cash for new shares rather than bitcoin), a narrative traders took to mean approval may be imminent. 

Loading Tweet..

The frenzy may have been premature — the SEC on Friday once again delayed its decision on an issuer’s proposed Ethereum product — but if and when a spot bitcoin ETF becomes a reality, traders have good reason to expect a price bounce. 

“There does seem to be a relationship between inflows as a percentage of [assets under management] and change in price,” CoinShares head of research James Butterfill said in a note Friday. “The highest inflows were witnessed when the prices were rising, suggesting many ETP investors are momentum trading.” 

Analysts from Galaxy are calling for 10% of American investors to put 1% into bitcoin ETFs within the first year, should the product make it to market, which would equate to inflows of $14.4 billion. 

“A spot ETF could be suited for any investor that wants direct exposure to bitcoin without having to own and manage the bitcoin through self-custody, offering numerous benefits over current bitcoin investment products,” Galaxy analysts wrote. 

Bitcoin ETP inflows have cooled since the bear market kicked off

Still, traders seem to have relaxed on front-running the news, at least for now. Macroeconomic conditions, whose impact on crypto markets continues to stump analysts, could also provide some favorable tailwinds for bitcoin and ether, should the assets behave as expected. 

The return of risk-on and big tech investing, trends that have historically pushed cryptos higher,  has fueled the Nasdaq’s more than 35% increase year to date. Matrixport analysts say the narrative is poised to continue. 

Researchers “predict further inflation decline in 2024, potentially prompting a significant interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve,” analysts wrote in a note Friday. “This would fuel the ongoing rally in risk-on assets, including crypto. Similar to this year, the macro will also be a tailwind in 2024.”

Updated Nov. 18, 2023 at 5:50 am ET: Clarified reference to cash creates.


Get the news in your inbox. Explore Blockworks newsletters:

Tags

Decoding crypto and the markets. Daily, with Byron Gilliam.

Upcoming Events

Old Billingsgate

Mon - Wed, October 13 - 15, 2025

Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit (DAS) will feature conversations between the builders, allocators, and legislators who will shape the trajectory of the digital asset ecosystem in the US and abroad.

Industry City | Brooklyn, NY

TUES - THURS, JUNE 24 - 26, 2025

Permissionless IV serves as the definitive gathering for crypto’s technical founders, developers, and builders to come together and create the future.If you’re ready to shape the future of crypto, Permissionless IV is where it happens.

Brooklyn, NY

SUN - MON, JUN. 22 - 23, 2025

Blockworks and Cracked Labs are teaming up for the third installment of the Permissionless Hackathon, happening June 22–23, 2025 in Brooklyn, NY. This is a 36-hour IRL builder sprint where developers, designers, and creatives ship real projects solving real problems across […]

recent research

Research Report Templates.png

Research

Maple Finance has successfully navigated significant market challenges through its strategic pivot to secured lending (Maple v2) and the launch of its Syrup product. Syrup has become a primary growth driver, delivering sustainable, outperforming stablecoin yields and rapidly increasing TVL. The upcoming custody-first Bitcoin staking product (istBTC) presents another significant avenue for expansion. Crucially, Maple has achieved operational profitability, a key inflection point that, combined with a fully vested token and active buyback mechanism, strengthens its investment case. While valuation metrics suggest potential undervaluation relative to peers and growth, the primary forward-looking risk identified is the long-term sustainability of its current high-take-rate collateral staking revenue model.

article-image

The Breakdown becomes your central hub for insightful, daily crypto macro analysis

article-image

What was a cool $500,000 would now be worth more than $7 million

article-image

Mersinger’s final day at the CFTC will be May 30

article-image

Squads CEO Stepan Simkin explained why the firm launched Altitude and how he’s thinking about stablecoins

article-image

Sponsored

Instead of endless wallet popups, users could connect once, set clear rules, and delegate permission to an app or to an AI agent.

article-image

Prediction markets show that people bet in anticipation of things happening far too often