Did Circle execute its IPO ‘perfectly’?
Circle had a pretty successful first day of trading, but what’s next for the stablecoin issuer?
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I know we’ve been talking a lot about Circle, but let’s be honest…whether you love or hate the firm, it’s a huge success story this week.
The stablecoin issuer finally debuted on the New York Stock Exchange yesterday, jumping as high as $103 before closing around $83. Quite a ride if you were watching it in real time, but if you weren’t, it closed up over 160% after pricing at $31 Wednesday night.
What was clear today was that retail was just as interested as institutions (ICYMI: Bloomberg reported that the offering was 20x oversubscribed earlier this week).
Speaking of institutions, Cathie Wood’s Ark disclosed that it bought nearly 4.5 million Circle shares, an amount worth over $373 million. Ark previously said it was interested in roughly $150 million, per a Circle filing.
As my colleague (and Forward Guidance newsletter author) Ben Strack wrote: It makes sense for folks to be interested in both COIN and CRCL.
“Coinbase is the Amazon of crypto — trading, derivatives, custody, staking and, of course, stablecoins,” Bitwise’s Ryan Rasmussen told Strack. “Circle now offers pure-play exposure to stablecoins. I suspect investors will want both in their portfolios.
“With stablecoin legislation likely to pass this year, that growth is only going to accelerate. So they smash the buy button on Circle.”
But, on the Empire podcast today, co-hosts Jason Yanowitz and Santiago Santos talked not only about COIN and CRCL but also Robinhood. When Santos asked Yanowitz which stock he’d choose if he could only pick one, Yanowitz responded that he’s “gigalong HOOD at this point.”
What was perhaps more surprising — to me at least — was that Yanowitz said if he were to recreate his equity portfolio from scratch, he’d include Coinbase and Robinhood but not Circle.
“I think we’re nearing a local top in sentiment for stablecoins,” Yanowitz explained. “I think Circle hit this IPO perfectly.”
But it’s not enough to get him to buy the stock.
Meanwhile, GSR’s Carlos Guzman told us: “Such a high degree of investor interest reflects significant optimism about the potential for stablecoins, especially as US legislation gets close to the finish line. As market structure legislation advances in Congress, we could see this interest extend to the rest of the industry, as clearer regulation sets the stage for broader adoption. I suspect we’ll be seeing several crypto companies accelerating their IPO plans now that Circle has revealed Wall Street’s appetite.”
What I’ll be watching now is whether or not Circle can keep the momentum. Hype’s great, but it doesn’t always last, and is $83 a fair price for the stock? We’ll have to see.
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