High Yield Bonds Rally, Long Duration Treasuries Sell off

Investors are pouring into risky junk bonds as an alternative to low-interest treasury bonds, sending junk bond yields to historic lows.  The average yield on high yield bonds dipped below four percent for the first time in history Monday, down from […]

article-image

US Treasury, Source, Shutterstock

share

key takeaways

  • Investors are paying up for high yield bonds, even as treasury yields are rising
  • The average yield on high yield bonds dipped below four percent for the first time in history Monday

Investors are pouring into risky junk bonds as an alternative to low-interest treasury bonds, sending junk bond yields to historic lows. 

The average yield on high yield bonds dipped below four percent for the first time in history Monday, down from nearly 12 percent in April 2020. 30-year Treasuries rose to two percent Monday before settling at 1.93 percent Tuesday afternoon. 

“The high yield bond market is almost a general proxy for equities, telling you that investors don’t see any risk,” said Steve Van Metre, founder of Steve Van Metre Financial.. “When high yields or junk yields are low, investors are telling you that there is minimal risk, and I disagree. I think there is an immense amount of risk out there.” 

[High Yield Corporate Bond Spreads minus 10-Year Treasury Yield] Source, Bloomberg

What is happening in the high yield space, Van Metre said, is investors are chasing four percent to five percent junk yields because they perceive there is no default. 

“In treasuries, there is a lot of speculative selling on the long end of the curve, and we’ve seen that since August,” said Van Metre. “We see that because there’s a belief that there’s going to be reflation and high rates of inflation due to the overwhelmingly false belief that the Fed actually is and can print money, which they cannot.” 

Investors are front running this alleged money printing at the long end of the curve, said Van Metre, but the short end of the curve reveals something completely different. 

There’s a collateral shortage in the banking system due to too much liquidity, which means that everything from three-year to 12-months-and-under treasury bill yields are all falling, said Van Metre. There is a high demand from banks for high quality, pristine collateral, and there isn’t enough in the market for it. 

“This tells you that all these speculators who have been selling [the long duration treasuries] since August completely don’t understand what’s going on in the system,” said Van Metre. “They’re just front-running what they hope to be a big trend.” 

Van Metre expects that as the Treasury starts to draw down its immense cash balance, likely through stimulus spending, there is a risk that the front of the curve will dip negative. 

“If the front of the curve goes negative, which I believe it can, and even Yellen has stated that it is possible that it will, that will cause a massive unwinding on the long end of the curve and drag it lower because the long end always follows the front end,” said Van Metre.

Tags

    Upcoming Events

    Old Billingsgate

    Mon - Wed, October 13 - 15, 2025

    Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit (DAS) will feature conversations between the builders, allocators, and legislators who will shape the trajectory of the digital asset ecosystem in the US and abroad.

    Industry City | Brooklyn, NY

    TUES - THURS, JUNE 24 - 26, 2025

    Permissionless IV serves as the definitive gathering for crypto’s technical founders, developers, and builders to come together and create the future.If you’re ready to shape the future of crypto, Permissionless IV is where it happens.

    Brooklyn, NY

    SUN - MON, JUN. 22 - 23, 2025

    Blockworks and Cracked Labs are teaming up for the third installment of the Permissionless Hackathon, happening June 22–23, 2025 in Brooklyn, NY. This is a 36-hour IRL builder sprint where developers, designers, and creatives ship real projects solving real problems across […]

    recent research

    Research Report Templates.png

    Research

    The convergence of DePIN and energy generation aims to address modern grid challenges by incentivizing distributed generation.

    article-image

    US states are now competing for Bitcoin bragging rights

    article-image

    The deal is likely to fuel further M&A around derivatives trading and infrastructure, Architect Partners’ Michael Klena says

    article-image

    Stripe announced Stablecoin Financial Accounts, which will allow businesses to have “stablecoin-powered accounts”

    article-image

    The deal is made up of $700 million in cash and 11 million shares of Coinbase’s Class A common stock

    article-image

    Blockworks Research uses numbers to help crypto advance to a higher stage of storytelling