Initial jobless claims rise during last week of November, lowers rate cut odds 

Data came in a bit mixed, but is overall consistent with the 13-week moving average

article-image

Tupungato/Shutterstock modified by Blockworks

share


This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, subscribe.


Jobs week continues with the latest initial claims report released this morning. The data came in a bit mixed, but is overall consistent with the 13-week moving average. These numbers are also the first we are getting in the holiday season, which is known as a volatile period

Initial jobless claims rose in the week ended Nov. 30, coming in at 224,000. This was a bit higher than analysts’ expectations of 215,000+ from the week prior, which was upwardly revised to 217,500. 

States with the biggest increases in initial claims include Pennsylvania and Kentucky.  

The overall 13-week moving average for initial claims is 226,000. 

Continuing claims eased a bit from 1.9 million a week prior to 1.87 million last week. Analysts had expected no change. 

Expectations for a 25-basis point interest rate cut later this month eased on the report. Fed funds futures markets now price in a 29.9% chance of Fed officials leaving interest rates unchanged, up from 21.9% on Wednesday. 

Stocks dipped a bit following the release, before paring gains later in the session. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indexes were trading relatively flat midway through Thursday’s session, down 0.04% and 0.06%, respectively, at 2 pm ET. 

Bitcoin meanwhile hovered in the $101,000 range this afternoon, sustaining its rally sparked Tuesday evening when the largest cryptocurrency broke $100,000 for the first time ever. More on that, and what we can expect next, below. 

We’ll need to see more Goldilocks data tomorrow in the November jobs report, which will be released at 8:30 am ET.


Get the news in your inbox. Explore Blockworks newsletters:

Tags

Decoding crypto and the markets. Daily, with Byron Gilliam.

Upcoming Events

Old Billingsgate

Mon - Wed, October 13 - 15, 2025

Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit (DAS) will feature conversations between the builders, allocators, and legislators who will shape the trajectory of the digital asset ecosystem in the US and abroad.

recent research

Flashnote Template (41).png

Research

We believe that few tokens at the application layer are diverging more from fundamentals than ZORA. Its fully-diluted P/S sits at 90x, pricing significant growth despite a consistent decline in weekly revenues since late July. We foresee an 80% decrease in protocol net margins due to a recent update to the fee structure that reduces trading fees from 3% to 1%, while boosting creators’ portion of the fee split. ZORA’s supply overhang also represents a near-term headwind, with 45% of ZORA’s supply (4.5B tokens or $350M at current prices) earmarked for the team & investors beginning to unlock on October 23, 2025 (36-month linear vesting schedule).

article-image

Insiders have the best information — markets should be willing to pay for it

article-image

The CFTC-regulated exchange is opening doors to crypto builders and traders through grants, partnerships, and new deposit options

by Blockworks /
article-image

DFS tells banking organizations to integrate blockchain monitoring tools to curb money laundering and sanctions risks

by Blockworks /
article-image

New short and long-term priorities include L1 gas boosts, ZK-EVMs, privacy reads, and a lean, quantum-resistant Ethereum

by Blockworks /
article-image

The new stBTC token redistributes Bitcoin gas fees to users, creating liquid yield without inflation or lockups

by Blockworks /
article-image

The reserve will collect protocol revenues to back W token, alongside new yield and unlock schedule

by Blockworks /