Reciprocal tariffs may be coming, but markets don’t care much just yet 

Advisers have been instructed to come up with new tariff levels that consider fees and taxes placed on US exports

article-image

President Trump | Phil Mistry/Shutterstock modified by Blockworks

share


This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, subscribe.


President Trump yesterday said his team is off to the races with reciprocal tariffs. Advisers have been instructed to come up with new tariff levels that consider fees and taxes placed on US exports. 

The timeline is a bit uncertain. But Commerce Secretary nominee Howard Lutnick said the studies may be completed by early April. Lutnick, if confirmed, will work with the office of the US Trade Representative on establishing the new levies. 

The import taxes, Trump said, will be designed on a country-by-country basis in order to offset tariffs on US exports and non-tariffs barriers, like exchange rates and value-added taxes. 

Markets took Trump’s announcement well, a sign that his comments were not as bad as investors had feared, or at the very least it’s going to take several weeks for tariffs to be implemented. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both reversed midway through Thursday’s session to close 1% and 1.3% higher, respectively. 

The uncertainty around the nature of the tariffs and when they may start is going to leave investors uneasy. But generally, we expect talk of tariffs — and therefore market impact — to die down a bit over the few weeks while advisers conduct their trade studies. 

In the meantime, it’s primarily going to be data moving markets. Next week we’ll get some key manufacturing numbers as well as the minutes from the Fed’s FOMC meeting last month, both of which will be useful in determining how long the interest rate-cutting cycle may be paused.


Get the news in your inbox. Explore Blockworks newsletters:

  • Blockworks Daily: The newsletter that helps thousands of investors understand crypto and the markets, by Byron Gilliam.
  • Empire: Start your morning with the top news and analysis to inform your day in crypto.
  • Forward Guidance: Reporting and analysis on the growing intersection of crypto and macroeconomics, policy and finance.
  • 0xResearch: Alpha directly in your inbox. Market highlights, data, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance and more.
  • Lightspeed: Built for Solana investors, developers and community members. The latest from one of crypto’s hottest networks.
  • The Drop: For crypto collectors and traders, covering apps, games, memes and more.
Tags

Upcoming Events

Javits Center North | 445 11th Ave

Tues - Thurs, March 18 - 20, 2025

Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit (DAS) will feature conversations between the builders, allocators, and legislators who will shape the trajectory of the digital asset ecosystem in the US and abroad.

Industry City | Brooklyn, NY

TUES - THURS, JUNE 24 - 26, 2025

Permissionless IV serves as the definitive gathering for crypto’s technical founders, developers, and builders to come together and create the future.If you’re ready to shape the future of crypto, Permissionless IV is where it happens.

Old Billingsgate

Mon - Wed, October 13 - 15, 2025

Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit (DAS) will feature conversations between the builders, allocators, and legislators who will shape the trajectory of the digital asset ecosystem in the US and abroad.

recent research

Unlocked by Template Presentation.jpg

Research

The Solana validator landscape has changed drastically over the past year. The chain now has 1,332 active validators with 380.9 million SOL staked (63.9% of supply) as of February 2025. Validator revenue had diversified beyond inflationary rewards (still making up 55%) to include Jito tips (30%), priority fees (24%), and base fees (<1%), in January, especially with the increased activity on Solana. Since then, issuance has become dominant again (76%), while Jito tips (14%), priority fees (9%), and base fees (less than 1%) have reduced in share of February 2025. There has been a strong shift towards non-inflationary revenue sources, which have become more central to validator economics as priority fees and off-chain blockspace auctions gain traction. Client diversity has also improved drastically, with implementations such as Agave, Jito-Solana, and Frankendancer already in use, and upcoming clients like Firedancer and Sig expected to further strengthen resilience and reduce reliance on a single codebase.

article-image

BWR analyst Carlos Gonzalez Campo explains the consequences of SOL inflation and transfers lost to “leaky buckets”

article-image

Empire co-host Santiago Santos makes the case that memecoins have actually helped push infra forward…just not in the way you think

article-image

A16z Crypto lists seven buckets for tokens and recommendations for how to regulate them, in a filing submitted to the SEC

article-image

New model aims to resolve trading inefficiencies with a single execution layer and market maker changes

article-image

Investors navigating BTC face short-term unpredictability, influence from other markets

article-image

The GENIUS Act aims to establish regulatory guidelines for stablecoins